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While adverse childhood experiences (ACEs), as described by the CDC-Kaiser Permanente Study, are reportedly common in both high and low-income settings, evidence on the epidemiology of ACEs in low-income settings is scarce. This study aimed to determine the prevalence of ACEs reported in young adulthood and assess their association with childhood maternal, household and community factors. We used data from the 22-23 year wave of the Birth to Twenty Plus (Bt20+) study in South Africa, the largest and longest running birth cohort in Africa. With ACEs as the main outcome measure, their association with childhood factors was assessed using regression models. As demonstrated in high-income settings, ACEs are highly prevalent in this young adult population in a middle income country. Both household and community socio-economic status in childhood was associated with the experience of ACEs and the likelihood of experiencing multiple ACEs. The attenuation of significance in adjusted models suggested that individual ACEs are correlated and may exert their effects through other ACEs. Interventions for the prevention of ACEs need to be directed not only at individuals but households as well as communities.

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OBJECTIVES: Varying hypertension prevalence across different socioeconomic strata within a population has been well reported. However, the causal factors and pathways across different settings are less clear, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. Therefore, this study aimed to compare blood pressure (BP) levels and investigate the extent to which socioeconomic status (SES) is associated with BP, in rural and urban South Africa women. SETTING: Rural and urban South Africa. DESIGN: Cross-sectional. PARTICIPANTS: Cross-sectional data on SES, total moderate and vigorous physical activity (MVPA), anthropometric and BP were collected on rural (n=509) and urban (n=510) young black women (18-23 years age). Pregnant and mentally or physically disabled women were excluded from the study. RESULTS: The prevalence of combined overweight and obesity (46.5% vs 38.8%) and elevated BP (27.0% vs 9.3%) was higher in urban than rural women, respectively. Results from the structural equation modelling showed significant direct positive effects of body mass index (BMI) on systolic BP (SBP) in rural, urban and pooled datasets. Negative direct effects of SES on SBP and positive total effects of SES on SBP were observed in the rural and pooled datasets, respectively. In rural young women, SES had direct positive effects on BMI and was negatively associated with MVPA in urban and pooled analyses. BMI mediated the positive total effects association between SES and SBP in pooled analyses (ß 0.46; 95% CI 0.15 to 0.76). CONCLUSIONS: Though South Africa is undergoing nutritional and epidemiological transitions, the prevalence of elevated BP still varies between rural and urban young women. The association between SES and SBP varies considerably in economically diverse populations with BMI being the most significant mediator. There is a need to tailor prevention strategies to take into account optimising BMI when designing strategies to reduce future risk of hypertension in young women.

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BACKGROUND: Adverse childhood experiences (ACES) have been linked to poor health and well-being outcomes, including poor mental health such as psychological distress. Both ACEs and psychological distress pose a significant public health burden, particularly in low to middle income countries. Contemporaneous stress events in adulthood may also impact psychological distress. The aims of this study were to describe the prevalence of ACEs and psychological distress and to assess the separate and cumulative effect of ACEs on psychological distress, while accounting for the effect of adult stress. METHODS: In this cross-sectional study, we used retrospectively measured ACEs from a sample of 1223 young adults aged between 22 and 23 years (52% female) from the Birth to Twenty Plus Study. Psychological distress and adult life stress were measured with a six-month recall period. Hierarchical logistic regression was employed to assess the associations between the exposures and outcome. RESULTS: Nearly 90% of the sample reported at least one ACE and 28% reported psychological distress. The median number of ACEs reported was three (range 0-11). After accounting for demographic and socio-economic factors, all ACEs were individually associated with psychological distress except for parental divorce and unemployment. The individual ACEs increased the odds of PD by between 1.42 and 2.79 times. Compared to participants experiencing no ACEs, those experiencing one to five ACEs were three times more likely to report psychological distress (AOR 3.2 95% CI: 1.83-5.63), while participants who experienced six or more ACEs had nearly eight times greater odds of reporting psychological distress (AOR 7.98 95% CI: 4.28-14.91). Interaction analysis showed that in the absence of adult life stress, the effect of low ACEs compared to high ACEs on PD was not significantly different. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION: The prevalence of ACEs in this young adult population is high, similar to other studies in young adult populations. A significant direct association exists between ACEs and psychological distress. Adult life stress seems to be a mediator of this relationship. Interventions targeted at psychological distress should address both early life adversity and contemporary stress.

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BACKGROUND: Stroke poses a growing human and economic burden in South Africa. Excess sugar consumption, especially from sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs), has been associated with increased obesity and stroke risk. Research shows that price increases for SSBs can influence consumption and modelling evidence suggests that taxing SSBs has the potential to reduce obesity and related diseases. This study estimates the potential impact of an SSB tax on stroke-related mortality, costs and health-adjusted life years in South Africa. METHODS: A proportional multi-state life table-based model was constructed in Microsoft Excel (2010). We used consumption data from the 2012 South African National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, previously published own and cross price elasticities of SSBs and energy balance equations to estimate changes in daily energy intake and BMI arising from increased SSB prices. Stroke relative risk, and prevalent years lived with disability estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study and modelled disease epidemiology estimates from a previous study, were used to estimate the effect of the BMI changes on the burden of stroke. RESULTS: Our model predicts that an SSB tax may avert approximately 72 000 deaths, 550 000 stroke-related health-adjusted life years and over ZAR5 billion, (USD400 million) in health care costs over 20 years (USD296-576 million). Over 20 years, the number of incident stroke cases may be reduced by approximately 85 000 and prevalent cases by about 13 000. CONCLUSIONS: Fiscal policy has the potential, as part of a multi-faceted approach, to mitigate the growing burden of stroke in South Africa and contribute to the achievement of the target set by the Department of Health to reduce relative premature mortality (less than 60 years) from non-communicable diseases by the year 2020.

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OBJECTIVE: To estimate the effect of increased sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) consumption on future adult obesity prevalence in South Africa in the absence of preventive measures. DESIGN: A model was constructed to simulate the effect of a 2·4 % annual increase in SSB consumption on obesity prevalence. The model computed the change in energy intake assuming a compounding increase in SSB consumption. The population distribution of BMI by age and sex was modelled by fitting measured data from the 2012 South African National Income Dynamics Survey to the log-normal distribution and shifting the mean values. SETTING: Over the past decade the prevalence of obesity and related non-communicable diseases has increased in South Africa, as have the sales and availability of SSB. Soft drink sales in South Africa are projected to grow between 2012 and 2017 at an annual compounded growth rate of 2·4 % in the absence of preventive measures to curb consumption. RESULTS: A 2·4 % annual growth in SSB sales alongside population growth and ageing will result in an additional 1 287 000 obese adults in South Africa by 2017, 22 % of which will be due to increased SSB consumption. CONCLUSIONS: In order to meet the South African target of reducing the number of people who are obese and/or overweight by 10 % by 2020, the country cannot afford to delay implementing effective population-wide interventions. In the face of plans to increase growth of SSB, the country will soon face even greater challenges in overcoming obesity and related non-communicable diseases.

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INTRODUCTION: Type 2 diabetes poses an increasing public health burden in South Africa (SA) with obesity as the main driver of the epidemic. Consumption of sugar sweetened beverages (SSBs) is linked to weight gain and reducing SSB consumption may significantly impact the prevalence of obesity and related diseases. We estimated the effect of a 20% SSB tax on the burden of diabetes in SA. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We constructed a life table-based model in Microsoft Excel (2010). Consumption data from the 2012 SA National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, previously published own- and cross-price elasticities of SSBs and energy balance equations were used to estimate changes in daily energy intake and its projected impact on BMI arising from increased SSB prices. Diabetes relative risk and prevalent years lived with disability estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study and modelled disease epidemiology estimates from a previous study were used to estimate the effect of the BMI changes on diabetes burden. Diabetes cost estimates were obtained from the South African Council for Medical Schemes. Over 20 years, a 20% SSB tax could reduce diabetes incident cases by 106 000 in women (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 70 000-142 000) and by 54 000 in men (95% UI: 33 000-80 000); and prevalence in all adults by 4.0% (95% UI: 2.7%-5.3%). Cumulatively over twenty years, approximately 21 000 (95% UI: 14 000-29 000) adult T2DM-related deaths, 374 000 DALYs attributed to T2DM (95% UI: 299 000-463 000) and over ZAR10 billion T2DM healthcare costs (95% UI: ZAR6.8-14.0 billion) equivalent to USD860 million (95% UI: USD570 million-USD1.2 billion) may be averted. CONCLUSION: Fiscal policy on SSBs has the potential to mitigate the diabetes epidemic in South Africa and contribute to the National Department of Health goals stated in the National NCD strategic plan.

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BACKGROUND: Obesity is a major risk factor for emerging non-communicable diseases (NCDS) in middle income countries including South Africa (SA). Understanding the multiple and complex determinants of obesity and their true population attributable impact is critical for informing and developing effective prevention efforts using scientific based evidence. This study identified contextualised high impact factors associated with obesity in South Africa. METHODS: Analysis of three national cross sectional (repeated panel) surveys, using a multilevel logistic regression and population attributable fraction estimation allowed for identification of contextualised high impact factors associated with obesity (BMI>30 kg/m2) among adults (15 years+). RESULTS: Obesity prevalence increased significantly from 23.5% in 2008 to 27.2% in 2012, with a significantly (p-value<0.001) higher prevalence among females (37.9% in 2012) compared to males (13.3% in 2012). Living in formal urban areas, white ethnicity, being married, not exercising and/or in higher socio-economic category were significantly associated with male obesity. Females living in formal or informal urban areas, higher crime areas, African/White ethnicity, married, not exercising, in a higher socio-economic category and/or living in households with proportionate higher spending on food (and unhealthy food options) were significantly more likely to be obese. The identified determinants appeared to account for 75% and 43% of male and female obesity respectively. White males had the highest relative gain in obesity from 2008 to 2012. CONCLUSIONS: The rising prevalence of obesity in South Africa is significant and over the past 5 years the rising prevalence of Type-2 diabetes has mirrored this pattern, especially among females. Targeting young adolescent girls should be a priority. Addressing determinants of obesity will involve a multifaceted strategy and requires at individual and population levels. With rising costs in the private and public sector to combat obesity related NCDS, this analysis can inform culturally sensitive mass communications and wellness campaigns. Knowledge of social determinants is critical to develop "best buys".

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BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: The prevalence of obesity in South Africa has risen sharply, as has the consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs). Research shows that consumption of SSBs leads to weight gain in both adults and children, and reducing SSBs will significantly impact the prevalence of obesity and its related diseases. We estimated the effect of a 20% tax on SSBs on the prevalence of and obesity among adults in South Africa. METHODS: A mathematical simulation model was constructed to estimate the effect of a 20% SSB tax on the prevalence of obesity. We used consumption data from the 2012 SA National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey and a previous meta-analysis of studies on own- and cross-price elasticities of SSBs to estimate the shift in daily energy consumption expected of increased prices of SSBs, and energy balance equations to estimate shifts in body mass index. The population distribution of BMI by age and sex was modelled by fitting measured data from the SA National Income Dynamics Survey 2012 to the lognormal distribution and shifting the mean values. Uncertainty was assessed with Monte Carlo simulations. RESULTS: A 20% tax is predicted to reduce energy intake by about 36 kJ per day (95% CI: 9-68 kJ). Obesity is projected to reduce by 3.8% (95% CI: 0.6%-7.1%) in men and 2.4% (95% CI: 0.4%-4.4%) in women. The number of obese adults would decrease by over 220 000 (95% CI: 24 197-411 759). CONCLUSIONS: Taxing SSBs could impact the burden of obesity in South Africa particularly in young adults, as one component of a multi-faceted effort to prevent obesity.

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