RESUMEN
In situations like the COVID-19 pandemic, healthcare systems are under enormous pressure as they can rapidly collapse under the burden of the crisis. Machine learning (ML) based risk models could lift the burden by identifying patients with high risk of severe disease progression. Electronic Health Records (EHRs) provide crucial sources of information to develop these models because they rely on routinely collected healthcare data. However, EHR data is challenging for training ML models because it contains irregularly timestamped diagnosis, prescription, and procedure codes. For such data, transformer-based models are promising. We extended the previously published Med-BERT model by including age, sex, medications, quantitative clinical measures, and state information. After pre-training on approximately 988 million EHRs from 3.5 million patients, we developed models to predict Acute Respiratory Manifestations (ARM) risk using the medical history of 80,211 COVID-19 patients. Compared to XGBoost and Random Forests, our transformer-based models more accurately forecast the risk of developing ARM after COVID-19 infection. We used Integrated Gradients and Bayesian networks to understand the link between the essential features of our model. Finally, we evaluated adapting our model to Austrian in-patient data. Our study highlights the promise of predictive transformer-based models for precision medicine.
RESUMEN
The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has challenged researchers at a global scale. The scientific communitys massive response has resulted in a flood of experiments, analyses, hypotheses, and publications, especially in the field of drug repurposing. However, many of the proposed therapeutic compounds obtained from SARS-CoV-2 specific assays are not in agreement and thus demonstrate the need for a singular source of COVID-19 related information from which a rational selection of drug repurposing candidates can be made. In this paper, we present the COVID-19 PHARMACOME, a comprehensive drug-target-mechanism graph generated from a compilation of 10 separate disease maps and sources of experimental data focused on SARS-CoV-2 / COVID-19 pathophysiology. By applying our systematic approach, we were able to predict the synergistic effect of specific drug pairs, such as Remdesivir and Thioguanosine or Nelfinavir and Raloxifene, on SARS-CoV-2 infection. Experimental validation of our results demonstrate that our graph can be used to not only explore the involved mechanistic pathways, but also to identify novel combinations of drug repurposing candidates.