RESUMEN
OBJECTIVE: To project the future costs of primary care providers in Denmark, taking into account high costs in the last year of life. DESIGN: Observational study and modelling. SETTING: Primary health care providers (doctors, dentists, physiotherapists, etc.), but not nursing homes and home help services. METHODS: The Danish population for the years 1995-2020 was projected on the basis of the current population using the cohort-component method. Average costs of use of various types of primary care providers were estimated from a 19.2% random sample of the 1995 population. Future costs were then projected using the population projection and age- and sex-specific average costs for survivors and non-survivors. RESULTS: The population was projected to increase by 8.2%, while the estimated increase was 36.1% for people aged over 50 years. Future costs of primary care providers were projected to increase by 8.2%, i.e. proportionally to the population increase. CONCLUSIONS: The results of the study indicate that demographic changes will Influence future costs of primary care providers through an increasing population size, but not because of ageing. This conclusion is independent of whether high costs in the last year of life are accounted for or not.
Asunto(s)
Costos de la Atención en Salud/tendencias , Dinámica Poblacional , Atención Primaria de Salud/economía , Adolescente , Adulto , Anciano , Anciano de 80 o más Años , Niño , Preescolar , Dinamarca , Femenino , Predicción , Necesidades y Demandas de Servicios de Salud/economía , Necesidades y Demandas de Servicios de Salud/tendencias , Humanos , Lactante , Recién Nacido , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Atención Primaria de Salud/organización & administraciónRESUMEN
While some studies have shown a considerable effect of ageing upon future health care costs, others indicate small or no effects. Moreover, studies have shown that age-related increases in health care costs in part can be explained by high costs in the last year of life. The aim of this study was to project future costs of hospital in-patient care and primary health care services in Denmark on the basis of demographic changes, both with and without account for the high costs in the last year of life. Costs were projected on the basis of a random 19% sample of the Danish population using the cohort-component method. The traditional projection method does not account for the high costs in the last year of life while the 'improved' method does. The Danish population was projected to increase by 8.2% during the period 1995-2020, and health care costs by 18.5% according to the traditional projection method and 15.1% according to the improved one. These results suggest that the high costs in the last year of life does matter in projections of future health care costs and should be taken into account. Furthermore, ageing per se seems to have considerable impact on future health care costs.