RESUMEN
BACKGROUND AND AIMS: In December 2006 the United States regulated sodium permanganate, a cocaine essential chemical. In March 2007 Mexico, the United States' primary source for methamphetamine, closed a chemical company accused of illicitly importing 60+ tons of pseudoephedrine, a methamphetamine precursor chemical. US cocaine availability and methamphetamine availability, respectively, decreased in association. This study tested whether the controls had impacts upon the numbers of US cocaine users and methamphetamine users. DESIGN: Auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) intervention time-series analysis. Comparison series-heroin and marijuana users-were used. SETTING: United States, 2002-14. PARTICIPANTS: The National Survey on Drug Use and Health (n = 723 283), a complex sample survey of the US civilian, non-institutionalized population. MEASUREMENTS: Estimates of the numbers of (1) past-year users and (2) past-month users were constructed for each calendar quarter from 2002 to 2014, providing each series with 52 time-periods. FINDINGS: Downward shifts in cocaine users started at the time of the cocaine regulation. Past-year and past-month cocaine users series levels decreased by approximately 1 946 271 (-32%) (P < 0.05) and 694 770 (-29%) (P < 0.01), respectively-no apparent recovery occurred through 2014. Downward shifts in methamphetamine users started at the time of the chemical company closure. Past-year and past-month methamphetamine series levels decreased by 494 440 (-35%) [P < 0.01; 95% confidence interval (CI) = -771 897, -216 982] and 277 380 (-45%) (P < 0.05; CI = -554 073, -686), respectively-partial recovery possibly occurred in 2013. The comparison series changed little at the intervention times. CONCLUSIONS: Essential/precursor chemical controls in the United States (2006) and Mexico (2007) were associated with large, extended (7+ years) reductions in cocaine users and methamphetamine users in the United States.
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Trastornos Relacionados con Anfetaminas/epidemiología , Trastornos Relacionados con Cocaína/epidemiología , Adolescente , Adulto , Anciano , Estimulantes del Sistema Nervioso Central/síntesis química , Niño , Cocaína/síntesis química , Inhibidores de Captación de Dopamina/síntesis química , Industria Farmacéutica/legislación & jurisprudencia , Control de Medicamentos y Narcóticos , Dependencia de Heroína/epidemiología , Humanos , Cooperación Internacional/legislación & jurisprudencia , Legislación de Medicamentos , Metanfetamina/síntesis química , México , Persona de Mediana Edad , Seudoefedrina/provisión & distribución , Compuestos de Sodio/provisión & distribución , Estados Unidos/epidemiología , Adulto JovenRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: This study examines whether Mexico's controls on ephedrine and pseudoephedrine, the two precursor chemicals that yield the most potent form of methamphetamine, d-methamphetamine, impacted the prevalence/availability of less potent types of methamphetamine in the United States-types associated with the alternative precursor chemical P2P. METHOD: Using ARIMA-intervention time series analysis of monthly drug exhibits (a prevalence/availability indicator) from the System to Retrieve Information from Drug Evidence (STRIDE), we tested whether Mexico's controls, which began in 2005, were associated with growth/decline in d-methamphetamine and growth/decline in P2P-associated, less potent l-methamphetamine, racemic methamphetamine (a 50:50 ratio of d- and l-isomers), and mixed isomer methamphetamine (an unequal ratio of d- and l-isomers). Heroin, cocaine and marijuana exhibits were used for quasi-control (01/2000-04/2011). RESULTS: Mixed-isomer exhibits constituted about 4% of the methamphetamine exhibits before Mexico's controls, then rose sharply in association with them and remained elevated, constituting about 37% of methamphetamine exhibits in 2010. d-Methamphetamine exhibits dropped sharply; l-methamphetamine and racemic methamphetamine exhibits had small rises. d-Methamphetamine exhibits partially recovered in the US West, but little recovery occurred in the US Central/South. Quasi-control series were generally unaffected. CONCLUSION: The US methamphetamine market changed. Widespread emergence of less potent methamphetamine occurred in conjunction with Mexico's controls. And prevalence/availability of the most potent type of the drug, d-methamphetamine, declined, a partial recovery in the West notwithstanding. Granting that lower potency drugs typically engender less dependence and attendant problems, these findings suggest that, following Mexico's controls, the potential harm of a sizeable amount of the US methamphetamine supply decreased.
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Estimulantes del Sistema Nervioso Central/análisis , Control de Medicamentos y Narcóticos/legislación & jurisprudencia , Metanfetamina/análisis , Algoritmos , Cannabis/química , Estimulantes del Sistema Nervioso Central/química , Cocaína/análisis , Control de Medicamentos y Narcóticos/tendencias , Efedrina/química , Geografía , Heroína/análisis , Humanos , Metanfetamina/química , México , Modelos Estadísticos , Narcóticos/análisis , Seudoefedrina/química , Estereoisomerismo , Estados UnidosRESUMEN
AIMS: To help counter problems related to methamphetamine, Mexico has implemented interventions targeting pseudoephedrine and ephedrine, the precursor chemicals commonly used in the drug's synthesis. This study examines whether the interventions impacted methamphetamine treatment admissions-an indicator of methamphetamine consequences. DESIGN: Quasi-experiment: autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA)-based intervention time-series analysis. INTERVENTIONS: precursor chemical restrictions implemented beginning November 2005; major rogue precursor chemical company closed (including possibly the largest single drug-cash seizure in history) March 2007; precursor chemicals banned from Mexico (North America's first precursor ban) August 2008. SETTINGS: Mexico and Texas (1996-2008). MEASUREMENTS: Monthly treatment admissions for methamphetamine (intervention series) and cocaine, heroin and alcohol (quasi-control series). FINDINGS: The precursor restriction was associated with temporary methamphetamine admissions decreases of 12% in Mexico and 11% in Texas. The company closure was associated with decreases of 56% in Mexico and 48% in Texas; these decreases generally remained to the end of the study period. Neither intervention was associated with significant changes in the Mexico or Texas quasi-control series. The analysis of Mexico's ban was indeterminate due largely to a short post-ban series. CONCLUSIONS: This study, one of the first quasi-experimental analyses of an illicit-drug policy in Mexico, indicates that the country's precursor interventions were associated with positive impacts domestically and in one of the Unites States' most populous states--Texas. These interventions, coupled with previous US and Canadian interventions, amount to a new, relatively cohesive level of methamphetamine precursor control across North America's largest nations, raising the possibility that the impacts found here could continue for an extended period.
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Trastornos Relacionados con Anfetaminas/prevención & control , Estimulantes del Sistema Nervioso Central/provisión & distribución , Control de Medicamentos y Narcóticos/legislación & jurisprudencia , Metanfetamina/provisión & distribución , Admisión del Paciente/estadística & datos numéricos , Centros de Tratamiento de Abuso de Sustancias/estadística & datos numéricos , Trastornos Relacionados con Anfetaminas/epidemiología , Trastornos Relacionados con Anfetaminas/rehabilitación , Estimulantes del Sistema Nervioso Central/síntesis química , Efedrina/química , Efedrina/provisión & distribución , Humanos , Metanfetamina/síntesis química , México/epidemiología , Admisión del Paciente/tendencias , Seudoefedrina/química , Seudoefedrina/provisión & distribución , Texas/epidemiología , Factores de TiempoRESUMEN
AIMS: Although illicit drug purity is a widely discussed health risk, research explaining its geographic variation within a country is rare. This study examines whether proximity to the US-Mexico border, the United States' primary drug import portal, is associated with geographic variation in US methamphetamine, heroin and cocaine purity. DESIGN: Distances (proximity) between the US-Mexico border and locations of methamphetamine, cocaine and heroin seizures/acquisitions (n = 239,070) recorded in STRIDE (System to Retrieve Information from Drug Evidence) were calculated for the period of 1990-2004. The association of drug purity with these distances and other variables, including time and seizure/acquisition size, was examined using hierarchical multivariate linear modeling (HMLM). SETTING: Coterminous United States. FINDINGS: Methamphetamine, cocaine and heroin purity generally decreased with distance from the US-Mexico border. Heroin purity, however, after initially declining with distance, turned upwards-a U-shaped association. During 2000-04, methamphetamine purity also had a U-shaped association with distance. For each of the three drugs, temporal changes in the purity of small acquisitions (<10 g) were typically more dynamic in areas closer to the US-Mexico border. CONCLUSIONS: Geographic variance in methamphetamine, cocaine and heroin purity throughout the coterminous United States was associated with US-Mexico border proximity. The U-shaped associations between border-distance and purity for heroin and methamphetamine may be due to imports of those drugs via the eastern United States and southeast Canada, respectively. That said, areas closer to the US-Mexico border generally had relatively high illicit drug purity, as well as more dynamic change in the purity of small ('retail level') drug amounts.