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Atmospheric variability can impact biological populations by triggering facultative migrations, but the stability of these atmosphere-biosphere connections may be vulnerable to climate change. As an example, we consider the leading mode of continental-scale facultative migration of Pine Siskins, where the associated ecological mechanism is changes in resource availability, with a mechanistic pathway of climate conditions affecting mast seeding patterns in trees which in turn drive bird migration. The three summers prior to pine siskin irruption feature an alternating west-east mast-seeding dipole in conifer trees with opposite anomalies over western and eastern North America. The climate driver of this west-east mast-seeding dipole, referred to as the North American Dipole, occurs during summer in the historical record, but shifts to spring in response to future climate warming during this century in a majority of global climate models. Identification of future changes in the timing of the climate driver of boreal forest mast seeding have broadly important implications for the dynamics of forest ecosystems.

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Many perennial plants show mast seeding, characterized by synchronous and highly variable reproduction across years. We propose a general model of masting, integrating proximate factors (environmental variation, weather cues, and resource budgets) with ultimate drivers (predator satiation and pollination efficiency). This general model shows how the relationships between masting and weather shape the diverse responses of species to climate warming, ranging from no change to lower interannual variation or reproductive failure. The role of environmental prediction as a masting driver is being reassessed; future studies need to estimate prediction accuracy and the benefits acquired. Since reproduction is central to plant adaptation to climate change, understanding how masting adapts to shifting environmental conditions is now a central question.

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The decision to establish a network of researchers centers on identifying shared research goals. Ecologically specific regions, such as the USA's National Ecological Observatory Network's (NEON's) eco-climatic domains, are ideal locations by which to assemble researchers with a diverse range of expertise but focused on the same set of ecological challenges. The recently established Great Lakes User Group (GLUG) is NEON's first domain specific ensemble of researchers, whose goal is to address scientific and technical issues specific to the Great Lakes Domain 5 (D05) by using NEON data to enable advancement of ecosystem science. Here, we report on GLUG's kick off workshop, which comprised lightning talks, keynote presentations, breakout brainstorming sessions and field site visits. Together, these activities created an environment to foster and strengthen GLUG and NEON user engagement. The tangible outcomes of the workshop exceeded initial expectations and include plans for (i) two journal articles (in addition to this one), (ii) two potential funding proposals, (iii) an assignable assets request and (iv) development of classroom activities using NEON datasets. The success of this 2.5-day event was due to a combination of factors, including establishment of clear objectives, adopting engaging activities and providing opportunities for active participation and inclusive collaboration with diverse participants. Given the success of this approach we encourage others, wanting to organize similar groups of researchers, to adopt the workshop framework presented here which will strengthen existing collaborations and foster new ones, together with raising greater awareness and promotion of use of NEON datasets. Establishing domain specific user groups will help bridge the scale gap between site level data collection and addressing regional and larger ecological challenges.

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While there is increasing recognition that social processes in cities like gentrification have ecological consequences, we lack nuanced understanding of the ways gentrification affects urban biodiversity. We analyzed a large camera trap dataset of mammals (>500 g) to evaluate how gentrification impacts species richness and community composition across 23 US cities. After controlling for the negative effect of impervious cover, gentrified parts of cities had the highest mammal species richness. Change in community composition was associated with gentrification in a few cities, which were mostly located along the West Coast. At the species level, roughly half (11 of 21 mammals) had higher occupancy in gentrified parts of a city, especially when impervious cover was low. Our results indicate that the impacts of gentrification extend to nonhuman animals, which provides further evidence that some aspects of nature in cities, such as wildlife, are chronically inaccessible to marginalized human populations.

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The benefits of masting (volatile, quasi-synchronous seed production at lagged intervals) include satiation of seed predators, but these benefits come with a cost to mutualist pollen and seed dispersers. If the evolution of masting represents a balance between these benefits and costs, we expect mast avoidance in species that are heavily reliant on mutualist dispersers. These effects play out in the context of variable climate and site fertility among species that vary widely in nutrient demand. Meta-analyses of published data have focused on variation at the population scale, thus omitting periodicity within trees and synchronicity between trees. From raw data on 12 million tree-years worldwide, we quantified three components of masting that have not previously been analysed together: (i) volatility, defined as the frequency-weighted year-to-year variation; (ii) periodicity, representing the lag between high-seed years; and (iii) synchronicity, indicating the tree-to-tree correlation. Results show that mast avoidance (low volatility and low synchronicity) by species dependent on mutualist dispersers explains more variation than any other effect. Nutrient-demanding species have low volatility, and species that are most common on nutrient-rich and warm/wet sites exhibit short periods. The prevalence of masting in cold/dry sites coincides with climatic conditions where dependence on vertebrate dispersers is less common than in the wet tropics. Mutualist dispersers neutralize the benefits of masting for predator satiation, further balancing the effects of climate, site fertility and nutrient demands.

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AbstractOaks (Quercus spp.) are masting species exhibiting highly variable and synchronized acorn production. We investigated the hypothesis that periodical cicadas (Magicada spp.), well known to have strong effects on the ecosystems in which they occur, affect acorn production of oaks through their xylem feeding habits as nymphs, the oviposition damage they inflict as adults during emergences, or the nutrient pulse resulting from the decomposition of their bodies following breeding. We found negative effects on acorn production during emergence years and the year following emergences and enhanced acorn production 2 years after emergence. We also found evidence indicating a significant effect of cicada emergences on spatial synchrony of acorn production by trees growing within the range of the same cicada brood compared with different broods. These results demonstrate that periodical cicadas act as a trophic environmental "veto" depressing acorn production during and immediately following emergences, after which the nutrient pulse associated with the cicada's demise enhances oak reproduction.

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Range boundaries are long-term biogeographic features of species distributions and abundance. However, many species demonstrate dynamic range boundaries, reflecting strong seasonal and annual variability in migratory behaviour. As a form of facultative migration, irruptions involve the movement of many individuals outside of their resident range in response to climate variability, resource availability, and demographic processes. Many species have experienced range shifts and altered phenology in response to modern climate change, but spatiotemporal changes in irruption dynamics are less well known. We quantified changes in the geography and periodicity of boreal bird irruptions across eastern North America from 1960 to 2021. Using data from Audubon's Christmas Bird Count for nine finch species, including several exhibiting recent population declines, we evaluated latitudinal trends in southern range and irruption boundaries and characterized irruption periodicity using spectral wavelet analysis. Six boreal birds exhibited significant northward shifts in their southern range boundaries and three species displayed shifts in their southern irruption boundaries. Irruption periodicity across multiple species was consistent across the 1960s and 1970s, culminating in frequent and synchronized irruptions of multiple species (superflights) during earlier decades. Coherence between species dampened beginning in the early 1980s as superflight periodicity became increasingly unstructured, finally reforming in recent decades, after 2000. Boreal birds are considered important sentinels of the boreal forests, and northward shifts and altered periodicity of irruptions may indicate broad-scale changes in climate- and resource-associated drivers operating across the boreal forests.

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Lack of tree fecundity data across climatic gradients precludes the analysis of how seed supply contributes to global variation in forest regeneration and biotic interactions responsible for biodiversity. A global synthesis of raw seedproduction data shows a 250-fold increase in seed abundance from cold-dry to warm-wet climates, driven primarily by a 100-fold increase in seed production for a given tree size. The modest (threefold) increase in forest productivity across the same climate gradient cannot explain the magnitudes of these trends. The increase in seeds per tree can arise from adaptive evolution driven by intense species interactions or from the direct effects of a warm, moist climate on tree fecundity. Either way, the massive differences in seed supply ramify through food webs potentially explaining a disproportionate role for species interactions in the wet tropics.

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Significant gaps remain in understanding the response of plant reproduction to environmental change. This is partly because measuring reproduction in long-lived plants requires direct observation over many years and such datasets have rarely been made publicly available. Here we introduce MASTREE+, a data set that collates reproductive time-series data from across the globe and makes these data freely available to the community. MASTREE+ includes 73,828 georeferenced observations of annual reproduction (e.g. seed and fruit counts) in perennial plant populations worldwide. These observations consist of 5971 population-level time-series from 974 species in 66 countries. The mean and median time-series length is 12.4 and 10 years respectively, and the data set includes 1122 series that extend over at least two decades (≥20 years of observations). For a subset of well-studied species, MASTREE+ includes extensive replication of time-series across geographical and climatic gradients. Here we describe the open-access data set, available as a.csv file, and we introduce an associated web-based app for data exploration. MASTREE+ will provide the basis for improved understanding of the response of long-lived plant reproduction to environmental change. Additionally, MASTREE+ will enable investigation of the ecology and evolution of reproductive strategies in perennial plants, and the role of plant reproduction as a driver of ecosystem dynamics.

Aún existen importantes vacíos en la comprensión de la respuesta reproductiva de las plantas al cambio medioambiental, en parte, porque su monitoreo en especies de plantas longevas requiere una observación directa durante muchos años, y estos conjuntos de datos rara vez han estado disponibles. Aquí presentamos a MASTREE +, una base de datos que recopila series de tiempo de la reproducción de las plantas de todo el planeta, poniendo a disposición estos datos de libre acceso para la comunidad científica. MASTREE + incluye 73.828 puntos de observación de la reproducción anual georreferenciados (ej. conteos de semillas y frutos) en poblaciones de plantas perennes en todo el mundo. Estas observaciones consisten en 5971 series temporales a nivel de población provenientes de 974 especies en 66 países. La mediana de la duración de las series de tiempo es de 10 años (media = 12.4 años) y el conjunto de datos incluye 1.122 series de al menos dos décadas (≥20 años de observaciones). Para un subconjunto de especies bien estudiadas, MASTREE +incluye un amplio conjunto de series temporales replicadas en gradientes geográficos y climáticos. Describimos el conjunto de datos de acceso abierto disponible como un archivo.csv y presentamos una aplicación web asociada para la exploración de datos. MASTREE+ proporcionará la base para mejorar la comprensión sobre la respuesta reproductiva de plantas longevas al cambio medioambiental. Además, MASTREE+ facilitará los avances en la investigación de la ecología y la evolución de las estrategias reproductivas en plantas perennes y el papel de la reproducción vegetal como determinante de la dinámica de ecosistemas.

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Tree fecundity and recruitment have not yet been quantified at scales needed to anticipate biogeographic shifts in response to climate change. By separating their responses, this study shows coherence across species and communities, offering the strongest support to date that migration is in progress with regional limitations on rates. The southeastern continent emerges as a fecundity hotspot, but it is situated south of population centers where high seed production could contribute to poleward population spread. By contrast, seedling success is highest in the West and North, serving to partially offset limited seed production near poleward frontiers. The evidence of fecundity and recruitment control on tree migration can inform conservation planning for the expected long-term disequilibrium between climate and forest distribution.

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Our overall objective is to synthesize mast-seeding data on North American Pinaceae to detect characteristic features of reproduction (i.e. development cycle length, serotiny, dispersal agents), and test for patterns in temporal variation based on weather variables. We use a large dataset (n = 286 time series; mean length = 18.9 years) on crop sizes in four conifer genera (Abies, Picea, Pinus, Tsuga) collected between 1960 and 2014. Temporal variability in mast seeding (CVp) for 2 year genera (Abies, Picea, Tsuga) was higher than for Pinus (3 year), and serotinous species had lower CVp than non-serotinous species; there were no relationships of CVp with elevation or latitude. There was no difference in family-wide CVp across four tree regions of North America. Across all genera, July temperature differences between bud initiation and the prior year (ΔT) was more strongly associated with reproduction than absolute temperature. Both CVp and ΔT remained steady over time, while absolute temperature increased by 0.09°C per decade. Our use of the ΔT model included a modification for Pinus, which initiates cone primordia 2 years before seedfall, as opposed to 1 year. These findings have implications for how mast-seeding patterns may change with future increases in temperature, and the adaptive benefits of mast seeding. This article is part of the theme issue 'The ecology and evolution of synchronized seed production in plants'.

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Despite its importance for forest regeneration, food webs, and human economies, changes in tree fecundity with tree size and age remain largely unknown. The allometric increase with tree diameter assumed in ecological models would substantially overestimate seed contributions from large trees if fecundity eventually declines with size. Current estimates are dominated by overrepresentation of small trees in regression models. We combined global fecundity data, including a substantial representation of large trees. We compared size-fecundity relationships against traditional allometric scaling with diameter and two models based on crown architecture. All allometric models fail to describe the declining rate of increase in fecundity with diameter found for 80% of 597 species in our analysis. The strong evidence of declining fecundity, beyond what can be explained by crown architectural change, is consistent with physiological decline. A downward revision of projected fecundity of large trees can improve the next generation of forest dynamic models.

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Indirect climate effects on tree fecundity that come through variation in size and growth (climate-condition interactions) are not currently part of models used to predict future forests. Trends in species abundances predicted from meta-analyses and species distribution models will be misleading if they depend on the conditions of individuals. Here we find from a synthesis of tree species in North America that climate-condition interactions dominate responses through two pathways, i) effects of growth that depend on climate, and ii) effects of climate that depend on tree size. Because tree fecundity first increases and then declines with size, climate change that stimulates growth promotes a shift of small trees to more fecund sizes, but the opposite can be true for large sizes. Change the depresses growth also affects fecundity. We find a biogeographic divide, with these interactions reducing fecundity in the West and increasing it in the East. Continental-scale responses of these forests are thus driven largely by indirect effects, recommending management for climate change that considers multiple demographic rates.

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The resource budget model for mast seeding hypothesizes that soil nutrients proximately influence reproduction. Plants in high soil nutrient (particularly N) areas are predicted to have lower reproductive variability over time and higher mean reproduction. While often examined theoretically, there are relatively few empirical tests of this hypothesis. We quantified cone production of 110 individual white spruce (Picea glauca) trees over seven years and quantified plant-available soil macronutrients (N, Ca, K, Mg, P, S) in natural forest conditions across three years with different cone crop conditions. Each of these plant-available soil nutrients were correlated across years (rs = 0.55-0.89; all > 0.81 for total-N); spatially, total-N availability varied 366-fold across trees. Plant-available soil nutrients did not influence variability or mean annual reproduction, contrary to nutrient perturbation experiments. We examined within-year nutrient and cone-production relationships, and observed significant positive relationships between reproduction and plant-available soil nutrients only in a low-reproduction year preceding a mast event. Both during a mast event and the following year, when overall cone production was very high or very low, there were no relationships. Both external drivers (e.g., weather) and internal resource budgets likely influence soil nutrient-reproduction relationships. These results suggest that plant-available soil nutrients may not be a large factor influencing mast-seeding patterns among individuals in this species.

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Mast seeding is a widespread reproductive phenomenon in plants, and testing evolutionary drivers is challenging. New research uses four decades of individual-tree reproduction data and demonstrates selection for hypersensitivity to a weather cue, high temporal variability, and high synchrony with neighbours.

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Resource pulses are rare events with a short duration and high magnitude that drive the dynamics of both plant and animal populations and communities1. Mast seeding is perhaps the most common type of resource pulse that occurs in terrestrial ecosystems2, is characterized by the synchronous and highly variable production of seed crops by a population of perennial plants3,4, is widespread both taxonomically and geographically5, and is often associated with nutrient scarcity6. The rare production of abundant seed crops (mast events) that are orders of magnitude greater than crops during low seed years leads to high reproductive success in seed consumers and has cascading impacts in ecosystems2,7. Although it has been suggested that mast seeding is potentially synchronized at continental scales8, studies are largely constrained to local areas covering tens to hundreds of kilometres. Furthermore, summer temperature, which acts as a cue for mast seeding9, shows patterns at continental scales manifested as a juxtaposition of positive and negative anomalies that have been linked to irruptive movements of boreal seed-eating birds10,11. Here, we show a breakdown in synchrony of mast seeding patterns across space, leading to asynchrony at the continental scale. In an analysis of synchrony for a transcontinental North America tree species spanning distances of greater than 5,200 km, we found that mast seeding patterns were significantly asynchronous at distances of greater than 2,000 km apart (all P < 0.05). Other studies have shown declines in synchrony across distance, but not asynchrony. Spatiotemporal variation in summer temperatures at the continental scale drives patterns of synchrony in mast seeding, and we anticipate that this affects the spatial dynamics of numerous seed-eating communities, from insects to small mammals to the large-scale migration patterns of boreal seed-eating birds.

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Ecological processes, such as migration and phenology, are strongly influenced by climate variability. Studying these processes often relies on associating observations of animals and plants with climate indices, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). A common characteristic of climate indices is the simultaneous emergence of opposite extremes of temperature and precipitation across continental scales, known as climate dipoles. The role of climate dipoles in shaping ecological and evolutionary processes has been largely overlooked. We review emerging evidence that climate dipoles can entrain species dynamics and offer a framework for identifying ecological dipoles using broad-scale biological data. Given future changes in climatic and atmospheric processes, climate and ecological dipoles are likely to shift in their intensity, distribution, and timing.

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Interannual variability of seed crops (CVp) has profound consequences for plant populations and food webs, where high CVp is termed 'masting'. Here we ask: is global variation in CVp better predicted by plant or habitat differences consistent with adaptive economies of scale, in which flower and seed benefits increase disproportionately during mast years; or by passive mechanisms, in which seed production responds to variation in resource availability associated with climate variability? To address this question, we compiled a dataset for phylogenetic comparative analysis of long-term fruit/seed production for plants comprising 920 time series spanning 311 plant species. Factors associated with both adaptive benefits of CVp (wind pollination and seed dispersal) and climatic variability (variability of summer precipitation) were among the best predictors of global variation in CVp. We observed a hump-shaped relationship between CVp and latitude and intermediate phylogenetic and geographic signals in CVp. CVp is patterned nonrandomly across the globe and over the plant tree of life, where high CVp is associated with species benefiting from economies of scale of seed or flower production and with species that experience variable rainfall over summer months when seeds usually mature.

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Mast seeding, or masting, is the highly variable and spatially synchronous production of seeds by a population of plants. The production of variable seed crops is typically correlated with weather, so it is of considerable interest whether global climate change has altered the variability of masting or the size of masting events. We compiled 1086 datasets of plant seed production spanning 1900-2014 and from around the world, and then analysed whether the coefficient of variation (CV) in seed set, a measure of masting, increased over time. Over this 115-year period, seed set became more variable for plants as a whole and for the particularly well-studied taxa of conifers and oaks. The increase in CV corresponded with a decrease in the long-term mean of seed set of plant species. Seed set CV increased to a greater degree in plant taxa with a tendency towards masting. Seed set is becoming more variable among years, especially for plant taxa whose masting events are known to affect animal populations. Such subtle change in reproduction can have wide-ranging effects on ecosystems because seed crops provide critical resources for a wide range of taxa and have cascading effects throughout food webs.

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