RESUMEN
BACKGROUND: The aim of the current study was to assess the accuracy of expert predictions, which were derived using a Delphi panel foresight study between 2009 and 2011, on a variety of drug-related topics in Finland in 2020. METHODS: The material used to evaluate the accuracy of the predictions consists of published reports on statistics, survey results, official register data, wastewater analyses and official documents. Whenever possible, we used multiple information sources to ascertain possible changes related to the predictions. RESULTS: Between 2009 and 2011, the majority - but not all - of the experts accurately predicted an increase in drug use. Indeed, more people experimented with or used drugs, and more drug residues were found in wastewater monitoring. The experts also correctly predicted an increase in population-level approval of drug use, but this development has been rather slow. Contrary to predictions, there was no marked increase in the use of new synthetic drugs. However, the misuse of buprenorphine increased during the 2010s. In the drug market, unit prices were surprisingly stable over the ten-year period. There were no changes in legislation related to the legal status of drugs, as was foreseen by the experts. However, enforcement moved in the direction foreseen by the experts: more lenient measures have been taken against users. Drug care system reforms favored a combination of mental health and addiction care units between 2009 and 2011, and 2020, as foreseen by the experts. CONCLUSIONS: It seems to have been easier for the experts to foresee the continuation of existing trends, e.g., increasing use of drugs or widening approval of drugs, than to predict possible changes in the popularity of distinct groups of drugs such as new psychoactive substances (NPS). Even armed with the prediction that drug imports and wholesale would increasingly fall into the domain of organized crime, this undesirable development could not be stopped. Expert disagreement can also be seen as a valuable indication of uncertainty regarding the future. Foresight related to drug-related issues can produce relatively accurate and realistic views of the future at least up to ten years ahead.
Asunto(s)
Técnica Delphi , Trastornos Relacionados con Sustancias , Humanos , Finlandia , PredicciónRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: The intravenous (IV) use of opioid maintenance treatment (OMT) medications and other intoxicating drugs among OMT patients is a challenge for many OMT units and affects treatment outcomes. The aim of this study is to examine factors associated with IV use of OMT medications and other intoxicating drugs among Finnish OMT patients. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was conducted among all Finnish OMT patients of whom 60% (n=1508) participated. The data were collected by anonymous questionnaire. Binominal regression analysis with unadjusted and adjusted ORs was conducted to evaluate predictors for IV use. FINDINGS: Factors associated with the injection of a patient's own OMT medication were: being treated with buprenorphine-naloxone (BNX) (OR 2.60, p=0.005) with a low dose (<9.0mg/day; OR 5.70, p<0.001) and being treated in a health-care centre (OR 2.03, p=0.029). Factors associated with the injection of illicit OMT medications were: being treated with BNX (OR 5.25, p<0.001) with a low dose (<9.0mg/day; OR 2.89, p=0.017), lack of psychosocial support (OR 2.62, p<0.001) and concurrent use of psychotropic medications from illicit sources (OR 4.28, p<0.001). Associated factors for the injection of other intoxicating drugs were: concurrent use of illicit drugs (OR 1.72, p=0.015), psychotropic medications from illicit sources (OR 4.78, p<0.001) and from a doctor (OR 1.93, p=0.004). CONCLUSIONS: More effort should be made to reduce concurrent injecting use during OMT. This may be done by addressing concurrent substance use orders more effectively, by ensuring that patients receive an optimal BNX dose and by providing more psychosocial support.
Asunto(s)
Analgésicos Opioides/administración & dosificación , Combinación Buprenorfina y Naloxona/administración & dosificación , Cumplimiento de la Medicación/psicología , Tratamiento de Sustitución de Opiáceos/psicología , Trastornos Relacionados con Opioides/psicología , Administración Intravenosa/psicología , Adulto , Estudios Transversales , Femenino , Finlandia , Humanos , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Tratamiento de Sustitución de Opiáceos/métodos , Trastornos Relacionados con Opioides/tratamiento farmacológico , Análisis de Regresión , Encuestas y CuestionariosRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Diversion (i.e. selling or giving away) of opioid maintenance treatment (OMT) medications is a challenge that concerns many units providing OMT worldwide and tools for prevention are needed. The object of this study was to examine the prevalence and predictors for diversion of the OMT medications buprenorphine-naloxone (BNX) and methadone (MET) among Finnish OMT patients. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was conducted among all Finnish OMT patients of whom 60% (n=1508) participated. The data were collected by anonymous questionnaires distributed through all OMT units in Finland. To evaluate predictors for diversion, we used binominal regression analysis with unadjusted and adjusted ORs. Selling and/or giving away of OMT medication was used as a dependent variable and explanatory variables were gender, age, duration of OMT, type of OMT medication and dose, dispensation method of OMT medication, place of residence and intravenous use of any intoxicating drugs during the past six months. RESULTS: Of all 1508 respondents, 7% (n=100) had sold and 12% (n=169) had given their OMT medication to others, 57% for money and 23% in exchange for other drugs. In multivariate analysis, predictors associated with diversion were BNX as OMT medication (OR 2.76, 95% CI 1.76-4.33), low (<9.0mg/day) BNX dose (OR 1.74, 95% CI 1.01-2.98), intravenous use of intoxicating drugs during the past six months (OR 4.48, 95% CI 3.13-6.43) and increasing length of OMT (OR 1.01, 95% CI 1.01-1.02). Age, place of residence or unsupervised pharmacy distribution of BNX were not associated with diversion. CONCLUSIONS: In order to reduce diversion, more interventions are needed to support patients to stop concurrent substance abuse. Increasing control measures, for example, increased supervision, are unlikely to prevent diversion. Given that sub-optimal dosing of BNX increases the risk of diversion, more attention should be paid to providing patients with an optimal medical dose.
Asunto(s)
Tratamiento de Sustitución de Opiáceos/métodos , Trastornos Relacionados con Opioides/tratamiento farmacológico , Desvío de Medicamentos bajo Prescripción/estadística & datos numéricos , Adulto , Combinación Buprenorfina y Naloxona/administración & dosificación , Estudios Transversales , Femenino , Finlandia , Humanos , Masculino , Metadona/administración & dosificación , Persona de Mediana Edad , Análisis Multivariante , Análisis de Regresión , Encuestas y Cuestionarios , Adulto JovenRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Historically substance misuse has been relatively common in western countries, but comparatively few Finns report drug use. The Drugs 2020 study aimed at foreseeing changes in the drug situation in Finland by the year 2020. METHODS: The Delphi method was used, utilizing drug experts of the EU national network in Finland. RESULTS: Marked growth was foreseen in drug use, especially in synthetic designer drugs and misuse of medicinal drugs. Significant increase was also expected in growing cannabis at home. However, the control of drug market was expected to shift more into the hands of organized crime. No consensus was reached on how drug prices will develop in the time period. Drug use is likely to remain punishable although the use and possession of cannabis may be treated less severely. It seems likely that health and social services resources will be directed towards medicinal treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Foresight can be utilized in preparing for the future; desirable developments can be fostered, and measures can be taken to curb probable but undesirable lines of development. Based on the results of this study, the experts' view is that it is highly likely that the Finnish society will have to prepare for an increase in the demand for drug-related care, both in terms of content of the care and financing the services. Also, the forecasted increase in the role of legal prescription medicine used as intoxicants will call for efforts not only in changing prescription practices but in border and police control measures, as well. Parallel developments have been foreseen in the UK and Sweden, and it is likely that similar trends will actualize also in other western countries.