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Changes in climate shift the geographic locations that are suitable for malaria transmission because of the thermal constraints on vector Anopheles mosquitos and Plasmodium spp. malaria parasites and the lack of availability of surface water for vector breeding. Previous Africa-wide assessments have tended to solely represent surface water using precipitation, ignoring many important hydrological processes. Here, we applied a validated and weighted ensemble of global hydrological and climate models to estimate present and future areas of hydroclimatic suitability for malaria transmission. With explicit surface water representation, we predict a net decrease in areas suitable for malaria transmission from 2025 onward, greater sensitivity to future greenhouse gas emissions, and different, more complex, malaria transmission patterns. Areas of malaria transmission that are projected to change are smaller than those estimated by precipitation-based estimates but are associated with greater changes in transmission season lengths.

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Riverine ecosystems have adapted to natural discharge variations across seasons. However, evidence suggesting that climate change has already impacted magnitudes of river flow seasonality is limited to local studies, mainly focusing on changes of mean or extreme flows. This study introduces the use of apportionment entropy as a robust measure to assess flow-volume nonuniformity across seasons, enabling a global analysis. We found that ~21% of long-term river gauging stations exhibit significant alterations in seasonal flow distributions, but two-thirds of these are unrelated to trends in annual mean discharge. By combining a data-driven runoff reconstruction with state-of-the-art hydrological simulations, we identified a discernible weakening of river flow seasonality in northern high latitudes (above 50°N), a phenomenon directly linked to anthropogenic climate forcing.

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Understanding how abiotic and biotic components respond to aquatic ecosystem restoration is pivotal for sustainable development in the face of economic development and global environmental change. However, the post-restoration monitoring and evaluation of aquatic ecosystems across large spatial and temporal scales is underfunded or not well documented, especially outside of Europe and North America. We present a meta-analysis of abiotic and biotic indices to quantify post-restoration (2 months-13 years) effects from reported aquatic restoration projects throughout the China-mainland, incorporating 39 lentic and 36 lotic ecosystems. Decreases in dissolved nutrients (total nitrogen, ammonia nitrogen and total phosphorus) post-restoration were rapid, but tended to slow down after about 9.3 years. Response ratios summarizing biodiversity responses (incorporating phytoplankton, invertebrates, vascular plants, fish and birds) typically lagged behind abiotic changes, suggesting longer timescales are needed for biotic indices to recover. Time since restoration interacted with lentic project size showing that, even with the same proportional efforts of restoration, larger lentic ecosystems responded much more slowly than smaller ones. Spatial heterogeneity, reflecting the effects of different restoration approaches (e.g., sewage interception, polluted sediment dredging, artificial wetlands, etc.), had a significantly stronger effect on biotic than abiotic indices, particularly in rivers compared to standing waters. This reflects the complexity of fluvial ecosystem dynamics and hints at a limitation in the reinstatement of ecological processes in these systems to overcome issues such as dispersal limitations. Overall, the different timelines and processes by which abiotic and biotic indices recover after restoration should be taken into account when defining restoration targets and monitoring programs. Our study illustrates the value of long-term aquatic ecosystem monitoring, especially in China given the scale and magnitude of ongoing restoration investments in the country.

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Multidimensional analysis of community stability has recently emerged as an overarching approach to evaluating ecosystem response to disturbance. However, the approach has previously been applied only in experimental and modelling studies. We applied this concept to an 18-year time series (2000-2017) of macroinvertebrate community dynamics from a southeast Alaskan river to further develop and test the approach in relation to the effects of two extreme flood events occurring in 2005 (event 1) and 2014 (event 2). Five components of stability were calculated for pairs of pre- or post-event years. Individual components were tested for differences between pre- and post-event time periods. Stability components' pairwise correlations were assessed and ellipsoids of stability were developed for each time period and compared to a null model derived from the permuted dataset. Only one stability component demonstrated a significant difference between time periods. In contrast, 80% of moderate and significant correlations between stability components were degraded post-disturbance and significant changes to the form of stability ellipsoids were observed. Ellipsoids of stability for all periods after the initial disturbance (2005) were not different to the null model. Our results illustrate that the dimensionality of stability approach can be applied to natural ecosystem time-series data. The major increase in dimensionality of stability observed following disturbance potentially indicates significant shifts in the processes which drive stability following disturbance. This evidence improves our understanding of community response beyond what is possible through analysis of individual stability components.

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Biogeochemical gradients in streambeds are steep and can vary over short distances often making adequate characterisation of sediment biogeochemical processes challenging. This paper provides an overview and comparison of streambed pore-water sampling methods, highlighting their capacity to address gaps in our understanding of streambed biogeochemical processes. This work reviews and critiques available pore-water sampling techniques to characterise streambed biogeochemical conditions, including their characteristic spatial and temporal resolutions, and associated advantages and limitations. A field study comparing three commonly-used pore-water sampling techniques (multilevel mini-piezometers, miniature drivepoint samplers and diffusive equilibrium in thin-film gels) was conducted to assess differences in observed nitrate and ammonium concentration profiles. Pore-water nitrate concentrations did not differ significantly between sampling methods (p-value = 0.54) with mean concentrations of 2.53, 4.08 and 4.02 mg l-1 observed with the multilevel mini-piezometers, miniature drivepoint samplers and diffusive equilibrium in thin-film gel samplers, respectively. Pore-water ammonium concentrations, however, were significantly higher in pore-water extracted by multilevel mini-piezometers (3.83 mg l-1) and significantly lower where sampled with miniature drivepoint samplers (1.05 mg l-1, p-values <0.01). Differences in observed pore-water ammonium concentration profiles between active (suction: multilevel mini-piezometers) and passive (equilibrium; diffusive equilibrium in thin-film gels) samplers were further explored under laboratory conditions. Measured pore-water ammonium concentrations were significantly greater when sampled by diffusive equilibrium in thin-film gels than with multilevel mini-piezometers (all p-values ≤0.02). The findings of this study have critical implications for the interpretation of field-based research on hyporheic zone biogeochemical cycling and highlight the need for more systematic testing of sampling protocols. For the first time, the impact of different active and passive pore-water sampling methods is addressed systematically here, highlighting to what degree the choice of pore-water sampling methods affects research outcomes, with relevance for the interpretation of previously published work as well as future studies.

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Floods have a major influence in structuring river ecosystems. Considering projected increases in high-magnitude rainfall events with climate change, major flooding events are expected to increase in many regions of the world. However, there is uncertainty about the effect of different flooding regimes and the importance of flood timing in structuring riverine habitats and their associated biotic communities. In addition, our understanding of community response is hindered by a lack of long-term datasets to evaluate river ecosystem resilience to flooding. Here we show that in a river ecosystem studied for 30 years, a major winter flood reset the invertebrate community to a community similar to one that existed 15 years earlier. The community had not recovered to the preflood state when recurrent summer flooding 9 years later reset the ecosystem back to an even earlier community. Total macroinvertebrate density was reduced in the winter flood by an order of magnitude more than the summer flood. Meiofaunal invertebrates were more resilient to the flooding than macroinvertebrates, possibly due to their smaller body size facilitating greater access to in-stream refugia. Pacific pink salmon escapement was markedly affected by the winter flood when eggs were developing in redds, compared to summer flooding, which occurred before the majority of eggs were laid. Our findings inform a proposed conceptual model of three possible responses to flooding by the invertebrate community in terms of switching to different states and effects on resilience to future flooding events. In a changing climate, understanding these responses is important for river managers to mitigate the biological impacts of extreme flooding effects.