RESUMEN
In modern clinical practice, less than half of new-onset heart failure (HF) patients undergo ischemic evaluation, and only a minority undergo revascularization. We aimed to assess the proportion of the effect of hypertension (antihypertensive treatment) on incident HF to be eliminated by prevention of CHD event treated with or without revascularization, considering possible treatment-mediator interaction. Causal mediation analysis of ALLHAT included 42,418 participants (age 66.9±7.7; 35.6% black, 53.2% men). A new CHD event (myocardial infarction or angina) that occurred after randomization but before the incident HF outcome was the mediator. Incident symptomatic congestive HF (CHF) and hospitalized/fatal HF (HHF) were the primary and secondary outcomes. Logistic regression (for mediator) and Cox proportional hazards regression (for outcome) were adjusted for demographics, cardiovascular disease history, and risk factors. During a median 4.5-year follow-up, 2,785 patients developed CHF, including 2,216 HHF events. Participants who developed CHD events had twice the higher incidence rate of CHF than CHD-free (28.5 vs 13.9 events/ 1,000 person-years). The proportion of reference interaction indicating direct harm due to CHD event for lisinopril (234% for CHF; 355% for HHF) and amlodipine (244% for CHF; 468% for HHF) was greater than for chlorthalidone (143% for CHF; 269% for HHF). In patients with revascularized CHD events, chlorthalidone and amlodipine eliminated 21-24%, and lisinopril - 45% of HHF. Antihypertensive treatment was not able to eliminate harm from CHD events treated without revascularization. In conclusion, the antihypertensive drugs (chlorthalidone, lisinopril, amlodipine) prevent HF not principally by preventing CHD events but via other pathways. HF is moderated but not mediated by CHD events. Revascularization of CHD events is paramount for HF prevention.
RESUMEN
AIMS: To investigate the independent contributions of glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) reduction and weight loss to clinical outcomes in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) treated with antidiabetic drugs, including glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RAs). MATERIALS AND METHODS: This observational, retrospective cohort study used deidentified electronic health record-derived data from patients evaluated at the Cleveland Clinic (1 January 2000-31 December 2020). Cohort A included 8876 patients with newly diagnosed T2D treated with any of six antidiabetic drug classes. Cohort B included 4161 patients with T2D initiating GLP-1RA treatment. The effects of body mass index (BMI) and HbA1c reduction, variability, and durability on clinical outcomes were investigated. RESULTS: In Cohort A, each 1% BMI reduction was associated with 3%, 1%, and 4% reduced risk of heart failure (p = 0.017), hypertension (p = 0.006), and insulin initiation (p = 0.001), respectively. Each 1% (~11 mmol/mol) HbA1c reduction was associated with 4% and 29% reduced risk of hypertension (p = 0.041) and insulin initiation (p = 0.001), respectively. In Cohort B, each 1% BMI reduction was associated with 4% and 3% reduced risk of cardiovascular disease (p = 0.008) and insulin initiation (p = 0.002), respectively. Each 1% (~11 mmol/mol) HbA1c reduction was associated with 4% and 16% reduced risk of chronic kidney disease (p = 0.014) and insulin initiation (p = 1 × 10-4), respectively. Lower BMI variability and greater BMI durability were associated with decreased risk of clinical outcomes in both cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: Antidiabetic medication-associated, and specifically GLP-1RA-associated, weight loss and HbA1c reductions independently reduce real-world clinical outcome risk.
RESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Oral Squamous Cell Carcinoma is the most prevalent malignancies affecting the oral cavity. Despite progress in studies and treatment options its outlook remains grim with survival prospects greatly affected by demographic and clinical factors. Precisely predicting survival rates and prognosis plays a role in making treatment choices for the best achievable overall health outcomes. OBJECTIVE: To develop and validate an accelerated failure time model as a predictive model for cause-specific survival and prognosis of Oral Squamous Cell Carcinoma patients and compare its results to the traditional Cox proportional hazard model. METHOD: We screened Oral cancer patients diagnosed with Squamous Cell Carcinoma from the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database between 2010 and 2020. An accelerated failure time model using the Type I generalized half logistic distribution was used to determine independent prognostic factors affecting the survival time of patients with oral squamous carcinoma. In addition, accelerated factors were estimated to assess how some variables influence the survival times of the patients. We used the Akaike Information Criterion, Bayesian Information Criterion to evaluate the model fit, the area under the curve for discriminability, Concordance Index (C-index) and Root Mean Square Error and calibration curve for predictability, to compare the type I generalized half logistic survival model to other common classical survival models. All tests are conducted at a 0.05 level of significance. RESULTS: The accelerated failure time models demonstrated superior effectiveness in modeling (fit and predictive accuracy) the cause-specific survival (CSS) of oral squamous cell carcinoma compared to the Cox model. Among the accelerated failure time models considered, the Type I generalized half logistic distribution exhibited the most robust model fit, as evidenced by the lowest Akaike Information Criterion (AIC = 27370) and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC = 27415) values. This outperformed other parametric models and the Cox Model (AIC = 47019, BIC = 47177). The TIGHLD displayed an AUC of 0.642 for discrimination, surpassing the Cox model (AUC = 0.544). In terms of predictive accuracy, the model achieved the highest concordance index (C-index = 0.780) and the lowest root mean square error (RMSE = 1.209), a notable performance over the Cox model (C-index = 0.336, RMSE = 6.482). All variables under consideration in this study demonstrated significance at the 0.05 level for CSS, except for race and the time span from diagnosis to treatment, in the TIGHLD AFT model. However, differences emerged regarding the significant variations in survival times among subgroups. Finally, the results derived from the model revealed that all significant variables except chemotherapy, all TNM stages and patients with Grade II and III tumor presentations contributed to the deceleration of time to cause-specific deaths. CONCLUSIONS: The accelerated failure time model provides a relatively accurate method to predict the prognosis of oral squamous cell carcinoma patients and is recommended over the Cox PH model for its superior predictive capabilities. This study also underscores the importance of using advanced statistical models to improve survival predictions and outcomes for cancer patients.
Asunto(s)
Carcinoma de Células Escamosas , Neoplasias de la Boca , Programa de VERF , Humanos , Neoplasias de la Boca/mortalidad , Neoplasias de la Boca/patología , Femenino , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Anciano , Pronóstico , Carcinoma de Células Escamosas/mortalidad , Carcinoma de Células Escamosas/patología , Modelos de Riesgos Proporcionales , Teorema de Bayes , Tasa de Supervivencia , Adulto , Análisis de SupervivenciaRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Neuromuscular blockade (NMB) agents are a critical component of balanced anesthesia. NMB reversal methods can include spontaneous reversal, sugammadex, or neostigmine and the choice of reversal strategy can depend on various factors. Unanticipated changes to clinical practice emerged due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and a better understanding of how NMB reversal trends were affected by the pandemic may help provide insight into how providers view the tradeoffs in the choice of NMB reversal agents. OBJECTIVE: We aim to analyze NMB reversal agent use patterns for US adult inpatient surgeries before and after the COVID-19 outbreak to determine whether pandemic-related practice changes affected use trends. METHODS: A retrospective longitudinal analysis of a large all-payer national electronic US health care database (PINC AI Healthcare Database) was conducted to identify the use patterns of NMB reversal during early, middle, and late COVID-19 (EC, MC, and LC, respectively) time periods. Factors associated with NMB reversal choices in inpatient surgeries were assessed before and after the COVID-19 pandemic reached the United States. Multivariate logistic regression assessed the impact of the pandemic on NMB reversal, accounting for patient, clinical, procedural, and site characteristics. A counterfactual framework was used to understand if patient characteristics affected how COVID-19-era patients would have been treated before the pandemic. RESULTS: More than 3.2 million inpatients experiencing over 3.6 million surgical procedures across 931 sites that met all inclusion criteria were identified between March 1, 2017, and December 31, 2021. NMB reversal trends showed a steady increase in reversal with sugammadex over time, with the trend from January 2018 onwards being linear with time (R2>0.99). Multivariate analysis showed that the post-COVID-19 time periods had a small but statistically significant effect on the trend, as measured by the interaction terms of the COVID-19 time periods and the time trend in NMB reversal. A slight increase in the likelihood of sugammadex reversal was observed during EC relative to the pre-COVID-19 trend (odds ratio [OR] 1.008, 95% CI 1.003-1.014; P=.003), followed by negation of that increase during MC (OR 0.992, 95% CI 0.987-0.997; P<.001), and no significant interaction identified during LC (OR 1.001, 95% CI 0.996-1.005; P=.81). Conversely, active reversal (using either sugammadex or neostigmine) did not show a significant association relative to spontaneous reversal, or a change in trend, during EC or MC (P>.05), though a slight decrease in the active reversal trend was observed during LC (OR 0.987, 95% CI 0.983-0.992; P<.001). CONCLUSIONS: We observed a steady increase in NMB active reversal overall, and specifically with sugammadex compared to neostigmine, during periods before and after the COVID-19 outbreak. Small, transitory alterations in the NMB reversal trends were observed during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, though these alterations were independent of the underlying NMB reversal time trends.
RESUMEN
PURPOSE: mpMRI is routinely used to stratify the risk of clinically significant prostate cancer (csPCa) in men with elevated PSA values before biopsy. This study aimed to calculate a multivariable risk model incorporating standard risk factors and mpMRI findings for predicting csPCa on subsequent prostate biopsy. METHODS: Data from 677 patients undergoing mpMRI ultrasound fusion biopsy of the prostate at the TUM University Hospital tertiary urological center between 2019 and 2023 were analyzed. Patient age at biopsy (67 (median); 33-88 (range) (years)), PSA (7.2; 0.3-439 (ng/ml)), prostate volume (45; 10-300 (ml)), PSA density (0.15; 0.01-8.4), PI-RADS (V.2.0 protocol) score of index lesion (92.2% ≥3), prior negative biopsy (12.9%), suspicious digital rectal examination (31.2%), biopsy cores taken (12; 2-22), and pathological biopsy outcome were analyzed with multivariable logistic regression for independent associations with the detection of csPCa defined as ISUP ≥ 3 (n = 212 (35.2%)) and ISUP ≥ 2 (n = 459 (67.8%) performed on 603 patients with complete information. RESULTS: Older age (OR: 1.64 for a 10-year increase; p < 0.001), higher PSA density (OR: 1.60 for a doubling; p < 0.001), higher PI-RADS score of the index lesion (OR: 2.35 for an increase of 1; p < 0.001), and a prior negative biopsy (OR: 0.43; p = 0.01) were associated with csPCa. CONCLUSION: mpMRI findings are the dominant predictor for csPCa on follow-up prostate biopsy. However, PSA density, age, and prior negative biopsy history are independent predictors. They must be considered when discussing the individual risk for csPCa following suspicious mpMRI and may help facilitate the further diagnostical approach.
Asunto(s)
Imágenes de Resonancia Magnética Multiparamétrica , Neoplasias de la Próstata , Humanos , Masculino , Neoplasias de la Próstata/patología , Neoplasias de la Próstata/diagnóstico , Neoplasias de la Próstata/sangre , Persona de Mediana Edad , Anciano , Anciano de 80 o más Años , Adulto , Estudios Retrospectivos , Valor Predictivo de las Pruebas , Hospitales de Alto Volumen , Medición de Riesgo , Biopsia Guiada por ImagenRESUMEN
Background: For patients with complicated type 1 diabetes having, for example, hypoglycemia unawareness and end-stage renal disease because of diabetic nephropathy, combined pancreas and kidney transplantation (PKT) is the therapy of choice. However, the shortage of available grafts and complex impact of risk factors call for individualized, impartial predictions of PKT and pancreas transplantation (PT) outcomes to support physicians in graft acceptance decisions. Methods: Based on a large European cohort with 3060 PKT and PT performed between 2006 and 2021, the 3 primary patient outcomes time to patient mortality, pancreas graft loss, and kidney graft loss were visualized using Kaplan-Meier survival curves. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were developed for 5- and 10-y prediction of outcomes based on 26 risk factors. Results: Risk factors associated with increased mortality included previous kidney transplants, rescue allocations, longer waiting times, and simultaneous transplants of other organs. Increased pancreas graft loss was positively associated with higher recipient body mass index and donor age and negatively associated with simultaneous transplants of kidneys and other organs. Donor age was also associated with increased kidney graft losses. The multivariable Cox models reported median C-index values were 63% for patient mortality, 62% for pancreas loss, and 55% for kidney loss. Conclusions: This study provides an online risk tool at https://riskcalc.org/ptop for individual 5- and 10-y post-PKT and PT patient outcomes based on parameters available at the time of graft offer to support critical organ acceptance decisions and encourage external validation in independent populations.
RESUMEN
AIMS: Ablation of monomorphic ventricular tachycardia (MMVT) has been shown to reduce shock frequency and improve survival. We aimed to compare cause-specific risk factors for MMVT and polymorphic ventricular tachycardia (PVT)/ventricular fibrillation (VF) and to develop predictive models. METHODS AND RESULTS: The multicentre retrospective cohort study included 2668 patients (age 63.1 ± 13.0 years; 23% female; 78% white; 43% non-ischaemic cardiomyopathy; left ventricular ejection fraction 28.2 ± 11.1%). Cox models were adjusted for demographic characteristics, heart failure severity and treatment, device programming, and electrocardiogram metrics. Global electrical heterogeneity was measured by spatial QRS-T angle (QRSTa), spatial ventricular gradient elevation (SVGel), azimuth, magnitude (SVGmag), and sum absolute QRST integral (SAIQRST). We compared the out-of-sample performance of the lasso and elastic net for Cox proportional hazards and the Fine-Gray competing risk model. During a median follow-up of 4 years, 359 patients experienced their first sustained MMVT with appropriate implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) therapy, and 129 patients had their first PVT/VF with appropriate ICD shock. The risk of MMVT was associated with wider QRSTa [hazard ratio (HR) 1.16; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.01-1.34], larger SVGel (HR 1.17; 95% CI 1.05-1.30), and smaller SVGmag (HR 0.74; 95% CI 0.63-0.86) and SAIQRST (HR 0.84; 95% CI 0.71-0.99). The best-performing 3-year competing risk Fine-Gray model for MMVT [time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC(t)AUC) 0.728; 95% CI 0.668-0.788] identified high-risk (> 50%) patients with 75% sensitivity and 65% specificity, and PVT/VF prediction model had ROC(t)AUC 0.915 (95% CI 0.868-0.962), both satisfactory calibration. CONCLUSION: We developed and validated models to predict the competing risks of MMVT or PVT/VF that could inform procedural planning and future randomized controlled trials of prophylactic ventricular tachycardia ablation. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: URL:www.clinicaltrials.gov Unique identifier:NCT03210883.
Asunto(s)
Desfibriladores Implantables , Prevención Primaria , Taquicardia Ventricular , Fibrilación Ventricular , Humanos , Femenino , Masculino , Taquicardia Ventricular/fisiopatología , Taquicardia Ventricular/prevención & control , Taquicardia Ventricular/diagnóstico , Taquicardia Ventricular/terapia , Persona de Mediana Edad , Estudios Retrospectivos , Prevención Primaria/métodos , Factores de Riesgo , Medición de Riesgo , Anciano , Fibrilación Ventricular/prevención & control , Fibrilación Ventricular/diagnóstico , Fibrilación Ventricular/fisiopatología , Fibrilación Ventricular/terapia , Resultado del Tratamiento , Cardioversión Eléctrica/instrumentación , Cardioversión Eléctrica/efectos adversos , Electrocardiografía , Ablación por Catéter , Factores de Tiempo , Muerte Súbita Cardíaca/prevención & control , Muerte Súbita Cardíaca/etiologíaRESUMEN
RATIONALE: The proportion of patients who develop progressive pulmonary fibrosis (PPF), along with risk factors for progression remain poorly understood. OBJECTIVES: To examine factors associated with an increased risk of developing PPF among patients at a referral center. METHODS: We identified patients with a diagnosis of interstitial lung disease (ILD) seen within the Cleveland Clinic Health System. Utilizing a retrospective observational approach we estimated the risk of developing progression by diagnosis group and identified key clinical predictors using the FVC component of both the original progressive fibrotic interstitial lung disease (PFILD) and the proposed PPF (ATS) criteria. RESULTS: We identified 5934 patients with a diagnosis of ILD. The cumulative incidence of progression over the 24 months was similar when assessed with the PFILD and PPF criteria (33.1 % and 37.9 % respectively). Of those who met the ATS criteria, 9.5 % did not meet the PFILD criteria. Conversely, 4.3 % of patients who met PFILD thresholds did not achieve the 5 % absolute FVC decline criteria. Significant differences in the rate of progression were seen based on underlying diagnosis. Steroid therapy (HR 1.46, CI 1.31-1.62) was associated with an increased risk of progressive fibrosis by both PFILD and PPF criteria. CONCLUSION: Regardless of the definition used, the cumulative incidence of progressive disease is high in patients with ILD in the 24 months following diagnosis. Some differences are seen in the risk of progression when assessed by PFILD and PPF criteria. Further work is needed to identify modifiable risk factors for the development of progressive fibrosis.
Asunto(s)
Progresión de la Enfermedad , Enfermedades Pulmonares Intersticiales , Humanos , Enfermedades Pulmonares Intersticiales/fisiopatología , Enfermedades Pulmonares Intersticiales/epidemiología , Enfermedades Pulmonares Intersticiales/complicaciones , Masculino , Femenino , Estudios Retrospectivos , Capacidad Vital/fisiología , Persona de Mediana Edad , Anciano , Factores de Riesgo , Fibrosis Pulmonar/fisiopatología , Fibrosis Pulmonar/complicaciones , Fibrosis Pulmonar/epidemiología , IncidenciaRESUMEN
Background: Surgeon performance has been investigated as a factor affecting patient outcomes after orthopaedic procedures to improve transparency between patients and providers. Purpose/Hypothesis: The purpose of this study was to identify whether surgeon performance influenced patient-reported outcomes (PROMs) 1 year after arthroscopic partial meniscectomy (APM). It was hypothesized that there would be no significant difference in PROMs between patients who underwent APM from various surgeons. Study Design: Case-control study; Level of evidence, 3. Methods: A prospective cohort of 794 patients who underwent APM between 2018 and 2019 were included in the analysis. A total of 34 surgeons from a large multicenter health care center were included. Three multivariable models were built to determine whether the surgeon-among demographic and meniscal pathology factors-was a significant variable for predicting the Knee injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score (KOOS)-Pain subscale, the Patient Acceptable Symptom State (PASS), and a 10-point improvement in the KOOS-Pain at 1 year after APM. Likelihood ratio (LR) tests were used to determine the significance of the surgeon variable in the models. Results: The 794 patients were identified from the multicenter hospital system. The baseline KOOS-Pain score was a significant predictor of outcome in the 1-year KOOS-Pain model (odds ratio [OR], 2.1 [95% CI, 1.77-2.48]; P < .001), the KOOS-Pain 10-point improvement model (OR, 0.57 [95% CI, 0.44-0.73), and the 1-year PASS model (OR, 1.42 [95% CI, 1.15-1.76]; P = .002) among articular cartilage pathology (bipolar medial cartilage) and patient-factor variables, including body mass index, Veterans RAND 12-Item Health Survey-Mental Component Score, and Area Deprivation Index. The individual surgeon significantly impacted outcomes in the 1-year KOOS-Pain mixed model in the LR test (P = .004). Conclusion: Patient factors and characteristics are better predictors for patient outcomes 1 year after APM than surgeon characteristics, specifically baseline KOOS-Pain, although an individual surgeon influenced the 1-Year KOOS-Pain mixed model in the LR test. This finding has key clinical implications; surgeons who wish to improve patient outcomes after APM should focus on improving patient selection rather than improving the surgical technique. Future research is needed to determine whether surgeon variability has an impact on longer-term patient outcomes.
RESUMEN
BACKGROUND: This study addresses the significant challenge of low survival rates in patients with cause-specific lung cancer accompanied by bone or brain metastases. Recognizing the critical need for an effective predictive model, the research aims to establish survival prediction models using both parametric and non-parametric approaches. METHODS: Clinical data from lung cancer patients with at least one bone or brain metastasis between 2000 and 2020 from the SEER database were utilized. Four models were constructed: Cox proportional hazard, Weibull accelerated failure time (AFT), log-normal AFT, and Zografos-Balakrishnan log-normal (ZBLN). Independent prognostic factors for cause-specific survival were identified, and model fit was evaluated using Akaike's and Bayesian information criteria. Internal validation assessed predictive accuracy and discriminability through the Harriel Concordance Index (C-index) and calibration plots. RESULTS: A total of 20,412 patients were included, with 14,290 (70%) as the training cohort and 6122 (30%) validation. Independent prognostic factors selected for the study were age, race, sex, primary tumor site, disease grade, total malignant tumor in situ, metastases, treatment modality, and histology. Among the accelerated failure time (AFT) models considered, the ZBLN distribution exhibited the most robust model fit for the 3- and 5-year survival, as evidenced by the lowest values of Akaike's information criterion of 6322 and 79,396, and the Bayesian information criterion of 63,495 and 79,396, respectively. This outperformed other AFT and Cox models (AIC = [156,891, 211,125]; BIC = [158,848, 211,287]). Regarding predictive accuracy, the ZBLN AFT model achieved the highest concordance C-index (0.682, 0.667), a better performance than the Cox model (0.669, 0.643). The calibration curves of the ZBLN AFT model demonstrated a high degree of concordance between actual and predicted values. All variables considered in this study demonstrated significance at the 0.05 level for the ZBLN AFT model. However, differences emerged in the significant variations in survival times between subgroups. The study revealed that patients with only bone metastases have a higher chance of survival compared to only brain and those with bone and brain metastases. CONCLUSIONS: The study highlights the underutilized but accurate nature of the accelerated failure time model in predicting lung cancer survival and identifying prognostic factors. These findings have implications for individualized clinical decisions, indicating the potential for screening and professional care of lung cancer patients with at least one bone or brain metastasis in the future.
RESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Merkel cell carcinoma (MCC) recurs in 40% of patients. In addition to stage, factors known to affect recurrence risk include: sex, immunosuppression, unknown primary status, age, site of primary tumor, and time since diagnosis. PURPOSE: Create a multivariable model and web-based calculator to predict MCC recurrence risk more accurately than stage alone. METHODS: Data from 618 patients in a prospective cohort were used in a competing risk regression model to estimate recurrence risk using stage and other factors. RESULTS: In this multivariable model, the most impactful recurrence risk factors were: American Joint Committee on Cancer stage (P < .001), immunosuppression (hazard ratio 2.05; P < .001), male sex (1.59; P = .003) and unknown primary (0.65; P = .064). Compared to stage alone, the model improved prognostic accuracy (concordance index for 2-year risk, 0.66 vs 0.70; P < .001), and modified estimated recurrence risk by up to 4-fold (18% for low-risk stage IIIA vs 78% for high-risk IIIA over 5 years). LIMITATIONS: Lack of an external data set for model validation. CONCLUSION/RELEVANCE: As demonstrated by this multivariable model, accurate recurrence risk prediction requires integration of factors beyond stage. An online calculator based on this model (at merkelcell.org/recur) integrates time since diagnosis and provides new data for optimizing surveillance for MCC patients.
Asunto(s)
Carcinoma de Células de Merkel , Neoplasias Primarias Desconocidas , Neoplasias Cutáneas , Humanos , Masculino , Carcinoma de Células de Merkel/epidemiología , Carcinoma de Células de Merkel/diagnóstico , Estudios Prospectivos , Neoplasias Primarias Desconocidas/patología , Estadificación de Neoplasias , Pronóstico , Neoplasias Cutáneas/patología , Internet , Recurrencia Local de Neoplasia/epidemiología , Recurrencia Local de Neoplasia/patología , Estudios RetrospectivosRESUMEN
The objective of this study was to validate the performance of Tutivia, a peripheral blood gene expression signature, in predicting early acute rejection (AR) post-kidney transplant. Recipients of living or deceased donor kidney transplants were enrolled in a nonrandomized, prospective, global, and observational study (NCT04727788). The main outcome was validation of the area under the curve (AUC) of Tutivia vs serum creatinine at biopsy alone, or Tutivia + serum creatinine at biopsy. Of the 151 kidney transplant recipients, the mean cohort age was 53 years old, and 64% were male. There were 71% (107/151) surveillance/protocol biopsies and 29% (44/151) for-cause biopsies, with a 31% (47/151) overall rejection rate. Tutivia (AUC 0.69 [95% CI: 0.59-0.77]) and AUC of Tutivia + creatinine at biopsy (0.68 [95% CI: 0.59-0.77]) were greater than the AUC of creatinine at biopsy alone (0.51.4 [95% CI: 0.43-0.60]). Applying a model cut-off of 50 (scale 0-100) generated a high- and low-risk category for AR with a negative predictive value of 0.79 (95% CI: 0.71-0.86), a positive predictive value of 0.60 (95% CI: 0.45-0.74), and an odds ratio of 5.74 (95% CI: 2.63-12.54). Tutivia represents a validated noninvasive approach for clinicians to accurately predict early AR, beyond the current standard of care.
Asunto(s)
Trasplante de Riñón , Humanos , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Femenino , Trasplante de Riñón/efectos adversos , Estudios Prospectivos , Creatinina , Rechazo de Injerto/diagnóstico , Rechazo de Injerto/etiología , Biomarcadores/metabolismo , Secuenciación de Nucleótidos de Alto Rendimiento , ARNRESUMEN
Early risk stratification is of outmost clinical importance in hospitalized patients with heart failure (HHF). We examined the predictive value of the Larissa Heart Failure Risk Score (LHFRS) in a large population of HHF patients from the Cleveland Clinic. A total of 13,309 admissions for heart failure (HF) from 9207 unique patients were extracted from the Cleveland Clinic's electronic health record system. For each admission, components of the 3-variable simple LHFRS were obtained, including hypertension history, myocardial infarction history, and red blood cell distribution width (RDW) ≥ 15%. The primary outcome was a HF readmission and/or all-cause mortality at one year, and the secondary outcome was all-cause mortality at one year of discharge. For both outcomes, all variables were statistically significant, and the Kaplan-Meier curves were well-separated and in a consistent order (Log-rank test p-value < 0.001). Higher LHFRS values were found to be strongly related to patients experiencing an event, showing a clear association of LHFRS with this study outcomes. The bootstrapped-validated area under the curve (AUC) for the logistic regression model for each outcome revealed a C-index of 0.64 both for the primary and secondary outcomes, respectively. LHFRS is a simple risk model and can be utilized as a basis for risk stratification in patients hospitalized for HF.
RESUMEN
[This corrects the article DOI: 10.2337/ds22-0031.].
RESUMEN
Introduction: Non-melanoma skin cancers (NMSCs) are the most common cancers in the USA, and their incidence is rising. Mohs micrographic surgery (MMS) is commonly performed to excise NMSCs. MMS replaced superficial radiotherapy (SRT) as a first line treatment, given its superior efficacy. Image-guided superficial radiation therapy (IGSRT) was invented to improve the precision of SRT. This study investigates how the 2-year recurrence probability of IGSRT-treated NMSCs compares to that of MMS-treated lesions. Methods: This retrospective cohort study compared the 2-year recurrence probability of early stage NMSCs (squamous and basal cell carcinomas (SCCs and BCCs)) treated by IGSRT (2,286 lesions) to data on NMSCs treated by MMS (5,391 lesions) via one sample proportion tests. Medical Subject Headings were used to search PubMed for reports of 2-year recurrence probability rates of NMSCs treated by MMS. Seventeen studies were screened; 14 studies were excluded for lack of 2-year time to event analysis, or irrelevant patient population (non-BCC/SCC study, advanced disease), leaving 3 studies for comparison. Results: IGSRT-treated NMSCs have a statistically significantly improved 2-year recurrence probability than those treated by MMS, P < 0.001 for pooled data. Conclusion: The 2-year recurrence probability IGSRT-treated NMSCs is superior to MMS-treated and supports IGSRT as an effective treatment option for individuals with early stage NMSCs.
RESUMEN
Background: Treatment decision-making in oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC) includes clinical stage, HPV status, and smoking history. Despite improvements in staging with separation of HPV-positive and -negative OPSCC in AJCC 8th edition (AJCC8), patients are largely treated with a uniform approach, with recent efforts focused on de-intensification in low-risk patients. We have previously shown, in a pooled analysis, that the genomic adjusted radiation dose (GARD) is predictive of radiation treatment benefit and can be used to guide RT dose selection. We hypothesize that GARD can be used to predict overall survival (OS) in HPV-positive OPSCC patients treated with radiotherapy (RT). Methods: Gene expression profiles (Affymetrix Clariom D) were analyzed for 234 formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded samples from HPV-positive OPSCC patients within an international, multi-institutional, prospective/retrospective observational study including patients with AJCC 7th edition stage III-IVb. GARD, a measure of the treatment effect of RT, was calculated for each patient as previously described. In total, 191 patients received primary RT definitive treatment (chemoradiation or RT alone, and 43 patients received post-operative RT. Two RT dose fractionations were utilized for primary RT cases (70 Gy in 35 fractions or 69.96 Gy in 33 fractions). Median RT dose was 70 Gy (range 50.88-74) for primary RT definitive cases and 66 Gy (range 44-70) for post-operative RT cases. The median follow up was 46.2 months (95% CI, 33.5-63.1). Cox proportional hazards analyses were performed with GARD as both a continuous and dichotomous variable and time-dependent ROC analyses compared the performance of GARD with the NRG clinical nomogram for overall survival. Results: Despite uniform radiation dose utilization, GARD showed significant heterogeneity (range 30-110), reflecting the underlying genomic differences in the cohort. On multivariable analysis, each unit increase in GARD was associated with an improvement in OS (HR = 0.951 (0.911, 0.993), p = 0.023) compared to AJCC8 (HR = 1.999 (0.791, 5.047)), p = 0.143). ROC analysis for GARD at 36 months yielded an AUC of 80.6 (69.4, 91.9) compared with an AUC of 73.6 (55.4, 91.7) for the NRG clinical nomogram. GARD≥64.2 was associated with improved OS (HR = 0.280 (0.100, 0.781), p = 0.015). In a virtual trial, GARD predicts that uniform RT dose de-escalation results in overall inferior OS but proposes two separate genomic strategies where selective RT dose de-escalation in GARD-selected populations results in clinical equipoise. Conclusions: In this multi-institutional cohort of patients with HPV-positive OPSCC, GARD predicts OS as a continuous variable, outperforms the NRG nomogram and provides a novel genomic strategy to modern clinical trial design. We propose that GARD, which provides the first opportunity for genomic guided personalization of radiation dose, should be incorporated in the diagnostic workup of HPV-positive OPSCC patients.
RESUMEN
PURPOSE: We sought to determine whether clinical risk factors and morphometric features on preoperative imaging can be utilized to identify those patients with cT1 tumors who are at higher risk of upstaging (pT3a). MATERIALS AND METHODS: We performed a retrospective international case-control study of consecutive patients treated surgically with radical or partial nephrectomy for nonmetastatic renal cell carcinoma (cT1 N0) conducted between January 2010 and December 2018. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to study associations of preoperative risk factors on pT3a pathological upstaging among all patients, as well as subsets with those with preoperative tumors ≤4 cm, renal nephrometry scores, tumors ≤4 cm with nephrometry scores, and clear cell histology. We also examined association with pT3a subsets (renal vein, sinus fat, perinephric fat). RESULTS: Among the 4,092 partial nephrectomy and 2,056 radical nephrectomy patients, pathological upstaging occurred in 4.9% and 23.3%, respectively. Among each group independent factors associated with pT3a upstaging were increasing preoperative tumor size, increasing age, and the presence of diabetes. Specifically, among partial nephrectomy subjects diabetes (OR=1.65; 95% CI 1.17, 2.29), male sex (OR=1.62; 95% CI 1.14, 2.33), and increasing BMI (OR=1.03; 95% CI 1.00, 1.05 per 1 unit BMI) were statistically associated with upstaging. Subset analyses identified hilar tumors as more likely to be upstaged (partial nephrectomy OR=1.91; 95% CI 1.12, 3.16; radical nephrectomy OR=2.16; 95% CI 1.44, 3.25). CONCLUSIONS: Diabetes and higher BMI were associated with pathological upstaging, as were preoperative tumor size, increased age, and male sex. Similarly, hilar tumors were frequently upstaged.