RESUMEN
Dengue is an emerging tropical disease infecting tens of millions of people annually. A febrile illness with potentially severe hemorrhagic manifestations, dengue is caused by mosquito-borne viruses (DENV-1 to -4) that are maintained in endemic transmission in large urban centers of the tropics with periodic epidemic cycles at 3- to 5-year intervals. Puerto Rico (PR), a major population center in the Caribbean, has experienced increasingly severe epidemics since multiple dengue serotypes were introduced beginning in the late 1970s. We document the phylodynamics of DENV-4 between 1981 and 1998, a period of dramatic ecological expansion during which evolutionary change also occurs. The timescale of viral evolution is sufficiently short that viral transmission dynamics can be elucidated from genetic diversity data. Specifically, by combining virus sequence data with confirmed case counts in PR over these two decades, we show that the pattern of cyclic epidemics is strongly correlated with coalescent estimates of effective population size that have been estimated from sampled virus sequences using Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. Thus, we show that the observed epidemiologic dynamics are correlated with similar fluctuations in diversity, including severe interepidemic reductions in genetic diversity compatible with population bottlenecks that may greatly impact DENV evolutionary dynamics. Mean effective population sizes based on genetic data appear to increase prior to isolation counts, suggesting a potential bias in the latter and justifying more active surveillance of DENV activity. Our analysis explicitly integrates epidemiologic and sequence data in a joint model that could be used to further explore transmission models of infectious disease.
Asunto(s)
Evolución Biológica , Virus del Dengue/genética , Dengue/epidemiología , Dengue/virología , Brotes de Enfermedades , Animales , ADN Viral/análisis , Dengue/transmisión , Virus del Dengue/aislamiento & purificación , Probabilidad , Puerto Rico/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
We compare the historical demographies of two Müllerian comimetic butterfly species: Heliconius erato and Heliconius melpomene. These species show an extensive parallel geographic divergence in their aposematic wing phenotypes. Recent studies suggest that this coincident mosaic results from simultaneous demographic processes shaped by extrinsic forces over Pleistocene climate fluctuations. However, DNA sequence variation at two rapidly evolving unlinked nuclear loci, Mannose phosphate isomerase (Mpi) and Triose phosphate isomerase (Tpi), show that the comimetic species have quite different quaternary demographies. In H. erato, despite ongoing lineage sorting across the Andes, nuclear genealogical estimates showed little geographical structure, suggesting high historical gene flow. Coalescent-based demographic analysis revealed population growth since the Pliocene period. Although these patterns suggest vicariant population subdivision associated with the Andean orogeny, they are not consistent with hypotheses of Pleistocene population fragmentation facilitating allopatric wing phenotype radiation in H. erato. In contrast, nuclear genetic diversity, theta, in H. melpomene was reduced relative to its comimic and revealed three phylogeographical clades. The pattern of coalescent events within regional clades was most consistent with population growth in relatively isolated populations after a recent period of restricted population size. These different demographic histories suggest that the wing-pattern radiations were not coincident in the two species. Instead, larger effective population size (N(e)) in H. erato, together with profound population change in H. melpomene, supports an earlier hypothesis that H. erato diversified first as the model species of this remarkable mimetic association.