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Survival rate is usually the greatest contributor to population growth in long-lived species, and its accurate estimation along with the evaluation of the factors influencing it is therefore essential for effective conservation. Here, we studied the survival of breeding eastern imperial eagles Aquila heliaca in Hungary between 2011 and 2022 and investigated the effect of poisoning, the leading known anthropogenic cause of mortality. We used the Cormack-Jolly-Seber mark-recapture model to estimate annual apparent survival and encounter probabilities based on the capture histories of 208 males and 411 females. We obtained encounter data from the DNA profiles of shed feathers collected at the nest sites, which we also supplemented with presences inferred from parentage analysis. The most supported model estimated a constant 91.6% annual survival over the study period, but models including the effect of sex and poisoning rate on survival had similar support. Sex difference in survival was less than 1% on average, but the survival of males decreased more with poisoning rate than the survival of females. However, due to smaller encounter probabilities, the estimates for males were less precise compared to females. Males may be more at risk from poisoning than females not only due to their more active foraging behaviour during incubation and chick-rearing but also due to their smaller body size. Apart from providing direct practical information for the conservation management of imperial eagles, our results also highlight the importance of long-term studies for estimating population parameters of birds of prey.

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The hypothesis that the inter-individual parameter variability is an unexploited area of ecotoxicology was proposed several decades ago. Although some illustrative examples were presented to support this hypothesis in the last decades, it has never been tested on an extensive, coherent database. In this study, variance changes of 105 dose-response curves were analysed. All data originated from the same experiment, where the effects of the insecticide Trebon EC were investigated in a dose-response manner on 15 traits of the collembolan Folsomia candida in four subsequent generations and two types of insecticide treatments. A consistent relationship between inter-individual variance and insecticide application was found in 2 (first clutch size and growth-reproduction trade-off) out of the 15 of the parameters. Contrary to the mean, the variance of the first clutch size showed consistent differences compared to the control. Furthermore, the variance of the growth-reproduction trade-off was consistently different from the control except in one case (F3 generation of the transgenerational treatment). Higher first clutch size variances were found in F1 and a lower one in the F2 and F3 generations than in that of the control. This overall pattern of the variance changes of the first clutch size and the trade-off seems to be a quick response to the insecticide application. In the short term, we have found that variance increased with insecticide treatment (P and F1 generation), because phenotypic variance generally increases due to environmental stress. Disruptive selection could be another mechanism between the more detoxification less reproduction strategy and the more reproduction less detoxification strategy. However, in the later generations (F2-F3) the variance decreases compared to the control, which could be because on short term selection stronger on the viability parameters and in long-term selection on reproduction becomes stronger. According to our results, analysis of the variance changes of some parameters may give information about the effects of the pesticide even when the mean does not predict any impact. Testing variance changes are important in ecotoxicology because variance change can signalise toxicant impact even when the mean does not change in certain cases.

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BACKGROUND: One of the dangers of global climate change to wildlife is distorting sex ratios by temperature-induced sex reversals in populations where sex determination is not exclusively genetic, potentially leading to population collapse and/or sex-determination system transformation. Here we introduce a new concept on how these outcomes may be altered by mate choice if sex-chromosome-linked phenotypic traits allow females to choose between normal and sex-reversed (genetically female) males. RESULTS: We developed a theoretical model to investigate if an already existing autosomal allele encoding preference for sex-reversed males would spread and affect demographic and evolutionary processes under climate warming. We found that preference for sex-reversed males (1) more likely spread in ZW/ZZ than in XX/XY sex-determination systems, (2) in populations starting with ZW/ZZ system, it significantly hastened the transitions between different sex-determination systems and maintained more balanced adult sex ratio for longer compared to populations where all females preferred normal males; and (3) in ZW/ZZ systems with low but non-zero viability of WW individuals, a widespread preference for sex-reversed males saved the populations from early extinction. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that climate change may affect the evolution of mate choice, which in turn may influence the evolution of sex-determination systems, sex ratios, and thereby adaptive potential and population persistence. These findings show that preferences for sex-linked traits have special implications in species with sex reversal, highlighting the need for empirical research on the role of sex reversal in mate choice.

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Sex reversals whereby individuals of one genetic sex develop the phenotype of the opposite sex occur in ectothermic vertebrates with genetic sex-determination systems that are sensitive to extreme temperatures during sexual differentiation. Recent rises in global temperatures have led researchers to predict that sex reversals will become more common, resulting in the distortion of many populations' sex ratios. However, it is unclear whether susceptibility to climate-driven sex-ratio shifts depends on the type of sex determination that varies across species. First, we show here using individual-based theoretical models that XX/XY (male-heterogametic) and ZZ/ZW (female-heterogametic) sex-determination systems can respond differentially to temperature-induced sex reversals. Interestingly, the impacts of climate warming on adult sex ratio (ASR) depend on the effects of both genotypic and phenotypic sex on survival and reproduction. Second, we analyse the temporal changes of ASR in natural amphibian populations using data from the literature, and find that ASR shifted towards males in ZZ/ZW species over the past 60 years, but did not change significantly in XX/XY species. Our results highlight the fact that we need a better understanding of the interactions between genetic and environmental sex-determining mechanisms to predict the responses of ectotherms to climate change and the associated extinction risks.This article is part of the themed issue 'Adult sex ratios and reproductive decisions: a critical re-examination of sex differences in human and animal societies'.

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The movement of butterflies within habitat patches is usually assumed to be random, although few studies have shown this unambiguously. In the case of the highly specialized genus Maculinea, two contradictory hypotheses exist to explain the movement and distribution of imagos within patches: (1) due to the high spatial variance of survival rates among caterpillars, the "risk-spreading" hypothesis predicts that females will tend to make linear flight paths in order to maximize their net displacement and scatter the eggs as widely as possible; and (2) recent mark-release-recapture (MRR) data suggest that within-habitat displacement of some Maculinea species is constrained and that adults may establish home ranges. We tested both hypothesis by analysing the movement pattern of individuals. We also investigated whether egg laying is time constrained, which would enhance the trade-off between flying and egg laying. Thirty females of Maculinea rebeli (Lepidoptera: Lycaenidae) were tracked within a single population in Central Hungary. Their egg-laying behaviour and individual patterns of movement were recorded, and the latter were compared with random walk model predictions. The population was also sampled by MRR to estimate survival rates, and four non-mated, freshly eclosed females were dissected to assess their potential egg load. Net squared displacement of females was significantly lower than predicted by the random walk model and declined continuously after the 15th move. The ratio of net displacement and cumulative move length decreased with the number of moves, supporting the hypothesis that Maculinea butterflies establish home ranges. We found that low survival and a low rate of egg laying prevented females from laying their potential number of eggs within their lifespan. Time limitation increased the cost of movement, providing another possible explanation for the restricted movement of females.

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