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1.
Preprint en Inglés | medRxiv | ID: ppmedrxiv-22272497

RESUMEN

Accurate estimates of total burden of SARS-CoV-2 are needed to inform policy, planning and response. We sought to quantify SARS-CoV-2 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths by age in Michigan. COVID-19 cases reported to the Michigan Disease Surveillance System were multiplied by age and time-specific adjustment factors to correct for under-detection. Adjustment factors were estimated in a model fit to incidence data and seroprevalence estimates. Age-specific incidence of SARS-CoV-2 hospitalization, death, and vaccination, and variant proportions were estimated from publicly available data. We estimated substantial under-detection of infection that varied by age and time. Accounting for under-detection, we estimate cumulative incidence of infection in Michigan reached 75% by mid-November 2021, and over 87% of Michigan residents were estimated to have had [≥]1 vaccination dose and/or previous infection. Comparing pandemic waves, the relative burden among children increased over time. Adults [≥]80 years were more likely to be hospitalized or die if infected in fall 2020 than if infected during later waves. Our results highlight the ongoing risk of periods of high SARS-CoV-2 incidence despite widespread prior infection and vaccination. This underscores the need for long-term planning for surveillance, vaccination, and other mitigation measures amidst continued response to the acute pandemic.

2.
Preprint en Inglés | medRxiv | ID: ppmedrxiv-21260726

RESUMEN

COVID-19 has had high incidence at institutions of higher education (IHE) in the United States, but the transmission dynamics in these settings are not well understood. It remains unclear to what extent IHE-associated outbreaks have contributed to transmission in nearby communities. We implemented high-density prospective genomic surveillance to investigate these dynamics at the University of Michigan-Ann Arbor and the surrounding community during the Fall 2020 semester (August 16th -November 24th). We sequenced complete SARS-CoV-2 genomes from 1659 individuals, including 468 students, representing 20% of cases in students and 25% of total confirmed cases in Washtenaw County over the study interval. Phylogenetic analysis identified over 200 introductions into the student population, most of which were not related to other student cases. There were two prolonged transmission clusters among students that spanned across multiple on-campus residences. However, there were very few genetic descendants of student clusters among non-students during a subsequent November wave of infections in the community. We conclude that outbreaks at the University of Michigan did not significantly contribute to the rise in Washtenaw County COVID-19 incidence during November 2020. These results provide valuable insights into the distinct transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 among IHE populations and surrounding communities.

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