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PURPOSE: Emergency laparotomy (EL) encompasses procedures of varying complexity and urgency, undertaken in different clinical scenarios, leading to different risks of morbidity and mortality. We hypothesized that the increased mortality and longer postoperative length of stay (LoS) observed in frail patients are related to differences in indication for operation, a higher rate of sepsis, worse intraperitoneal soiling, and more advanced malignancy in this group. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study analysed patients entered into the National Emergency Laparotomy Audit database between January 1, 2018, and June 15, 2021, in Oxford. The primary outcome was 180-day survival analysed using multivariable Cox regression. The secondary outcomes, delay to surgery (DtS) and postoperative LoS, were analysed using logarithmically transformed multivariable linear regression. RESULTS: Of the 803 patients analysed, 396 (49.3%) were male. The median age was 66, and 337 (42%) were living with at least very mild frailty. Mortality hazard ratios for Clinical Frailty Scale grades 4 (3.93, 95% CI 1.89-8.20), 5 (5.86, 95% CI 2.87-11.97), and 6-7 (14.17, 95% CI 7.33-27.40) were not confounded by indication, sepsis, intraperitoneal soiling, or malignancy status. Frail patients experienced a 1.38-fold longer DtS and a 1.24-fold longer postoperative LoS, even after adjusting for indication, sepsis, intraperitoneal soiling, malignancy status, and DtS. CONCLUSION: Our results indicate that frail patients have a poorer prognosis and longer postoperative LoS, independent of DtS, indication, sepsis, intraperitoneal soiling, and malignancy status. Patient frailty is also associated with longer DtS.
RESUMEN
OBJECTIVE: We set out to assess the performance of the P-POSSUM and NELA risk prediction tool (NELA RPT), and hypothesized that combining them with the Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS) would significantly improve their performance. Emergency laparotomy (EL) is a high-risk surgical intervention, particularly for elderly patients with marked comorbidities and frailty. Accurate risk prediction is crucial for appropriate resource allocation, clinical decision making, and informed consent. Although patient frailty is a significant risk factor, the current risk prediction tools fail to take frailty into account. METHODS: In this retrospective single-center cohort study, we analyzed all cases entered into the NELA database from the Oxford University Hospitals between 01.01.2018 and 15.06.2021. We analyzed the performance of the P-POSSUM and NELA RPT. Both tools were modified by adding the CFS to the model. RESULTS: The discrimination of both the P-POSSUM and NELA RPT was good, with a slightly worse performance in the elderly. Adding CFS into the P-POSSUM and NELA RPT models improved both tools in the elderly [AUC from 0.775 to 0.846 (p < 0.05) from 0.814 to 0.864 (p < 0.05), respectively]. The improvement of the NELA RPT across all age groups did not reach statistical significance. The CFS grade was associated with 30-day mortality in patients aged > 65 years. However, in younger patients, this effect was less marked than in the elderly. CONCLUSION: Our analysis demonstrated a significant improvement in the P-POSSUM and NELA risk models when combined with the CFS. Frailty also increases the 30-day mortality after EL in younger individuals.