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On 30 January 2020, WHO declared coronavirus (COVID-19) a global public health emergency. As of 12 March 2020, 125 048 confirmed COVID-19 cases in 118 countries had been reported. On 12 March 2020, the first case in the Pacific islands was reported in French Polynesia; no other Pacific island country or territory has reported cases. The purpose of our analysis is to show how travellers may introduce COVID-19 into the Pacific islands and discuss the role robust health systems play in protecting health and reducing transmission risk. We analyse travel and Global Health Security Index data using a scoring tool to produce quantitative estimates of COVID-19 importation risk, by departing and arriving country. Our analysis indicates that, as of 12 March 2020, the highest risk air routes by which COVID-19 may be imported into the Pacific islands are from east Asian countries (specifically, China, Korea and Japan) to north Pacific airports (likely Guam, Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands or, to a less extent, Palau); or from China, Japan, Singapore, the United States of America or France to south Pacific ports (likely, Fiji, Papua New Guinea, French Polynesia or New Caledonia). Other importation routes include from other east Asian countries to Guam, and from Australia, New Zealand and other European countries to the south Pacific. The tool provides a useful method for assessing COVID-19 importation risk and may be useful in other settings.

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BACKGROUND: Refugees are at risk of being under-immunised in their countries of origin, in transit and post-resettlement in Australia. Whilst studies have focused on identifying barriers to accessibility of health services among refugees, few focus on providers' perspectives on immunisation service delivery to this group. Health service providers are well placed to provide insights into the pragmatic challenges associated with refugee health service delivery, which can be useful in identifying strategies aimed at improving immunisation coverage among this group. METHODS: A qualitative study involving 30 semi-structured interviews was undertaken with key stakeholders in immunisation service delivery across all States and Territories in Australia between December 2014 and December 2015. Thematic analysis was undertaken. RESULTS: Variability in accessing program funding and vaccines, lack of a national policy for catch-up vaccination, unclear roles and responsibilities for catch-up, a lack of a central immunisation register and insufficient training among general practitioners were seen as the main challenges impacting on immunisation service delivery for refugees. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides insight into the challenges that impact on effective immunisation service delivery for refugees. Deliberate strategies such as national funding for relevant vaccines, improved data collection nationally and increased guidance for general practitioners on catch-up immunisation for refugees would help to ensure equitable access across all age groups.

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Despite a much higher rate of human influenza A (H7N9) infection compared to influenza A (H5N1), and the assumption that birds are the source of human infection, detection rates of H7N9 in birds are lower than those of H5N1. This raises a question about the role of birds in the spread and transmission of H7N9 to humans. We conducted a meta-analysis of overall prevalence of H5N1 and H7N9 in different bird populations (domestic poultry, wild birds) and different environments (live bird markets, commercial poultry farms, wild habitats). The electronic database, Scopus, was searched for published papers, and Google was searched for country surveillance reports. A random effect meta-analysis model was used to produce pooled estimates of the prevalence of H5N1 and H7N9 for various subcategories. A random effects logistic regression model was used to compare prevalence rates between H5N1 and H7N9. Both viruses have low prevalence across all bird populations. Significant differences in prevalence rates were observed in domestic birds, farm settings, for pathogen and antibody testing, and during routine surveillance. Random effects logistic regression analyses show that among domestic birds, the prevalence of H5N1 is 47.48 (95% CI: 17.15-133.13, P < 0.001) times higher than H7N9. In routine surveillance (where surveillance was not conducted in response to human infections or bird outbreaks), the prevalence of H5N1 is still higher than H7N9 with an OR of 43.02 (95% CI: 16.60-111.53, P < 0.001). H7N9 in humans has occurred at a rate approximately four times higher than H5N1, and for both infections, birds are postulated to be the source. Much lower rates of H7N9 in birds compared to H5N1 raise doubts about birds as the sole source of high rates of human H7N9 infection. Other sources of transmission of H7N9 need to be considered and explored.

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Immigrants and their children who return to their country of origin to visit friends and relatives (VFR) are at increased risk of acquiring infectious diseases compared to other travellers. VFR travel is an important disease control issue, as one quarter of Australia's population are foreign-born and one quarter of departing Australian international travellers are visiting friends and relatives. We conducted a 1-year prospective enhanced surveillance study in New South Wales and Victoria, Australia to determine the contribution of VFR travel to notifiable diseases associated with travel, including typhoid, paratyphoid, measles, hepatitis A, hepatitis E, malaria and chikungunya. Additional data on characteristics of international travel were collected. Recent international travel was reported by 180/222 (81%) enhanced surveillance cases, including all malaria, chikungunya and paratyphoid cases. The majority of cases who acquired infections during travel were immigrant Australians (96, 53%) or their Australian-born children (43, 24%). VFR travel was reported by 117 (65%) travel-associated cases, highest for typhoid (31/32, 97%). Cases of children (aged <18 years) (86%) were more frequently VFR travellers compared to adult travellers (57%, P < 0·001). VFR travel is an important contributor to imported disease in Australia. Communicable disease control strategies targeting these travellers, such as targeted health promotion, are likely to impact importation of these travel-related infections.

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Many developed countries, like Australia, maintain a high population level immunity against measles, however, there remains a risk of acquisition of measles in non-immune travellers and subsequent importation into Australia leading to localised outbreaks. In this study, we estimate the incidence of measles and describe characteristics including immunisation and pre-travel health seeking behaviour of notified cases of measles in New South Wales and Victoria, Australia between February 2013 and January 2014. Cases were followed up by telephone interview using a questionnaire to collect information of demographic and travel characteristics. In NSW, the incidence was highest in age group 0-9years (20/million population) whereas in Victoria the highest incidence was observed in 10-19 (23/million population) years group. Out of 44 cases interviewed, 25 (56.8%) had history of travel outside of Australia during or immediately prior to the onset of measles. Holiday (60%) was the main reason for travel with 44% (11/25) reporting visiting friends and relatives (VFR) during the trip. The major reason described for not seeking prior medical advice before travel were "no perceived risk of diseases" (41%) and "previous overseas travel without any problem" (41%). Of the 25 measles cases with recent overseas travel during the incubation period, one reported a measles vaccine prior to their recent trip. Four cases were children of parents who refused vaccination. Twenty out of 25 (80.0%) had attended mass gathering events. Young adults and VFR travellers should be a high priority for preventive strategies in order to maintain measles elimination status.

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Upon return from Hajj 2014, 150 Australian pilgrims were interviewed about their understanding of the Ebola epidemic. Most (89%, 134/150) knew of the epidemic before travelling and 60% (80/134) of those knew Ebola transmits through body fluids. Pilgrims who received pre-travel health advice were more conscious of Ebola (69% vs 31%, p = 0.01) and adhered better to hand hygiene after touching an ill person (68% vs 31%, p < 0.01). Mass media was the main information source (78%).

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The transmission of respiratory tract infections (RTIs) is very high among the Hajj congregation in Mecca, Saudi Arabia. Despite recommendations for vaccinations, pilgrims remain at increased risk of RTIs. In this paper we systematically reviewed available studies assessing the uptake and effectiveness of vaccinations against RTIs among Hajj pilgrims and enumerated important demographic factors, if described, associated with vaccine uptake. Of the 42 included studies, 29 reported on the uptake and effectiveness of influenza vaccine among pilgrims, eight studies reported the uptake of other vaccines, notably pneumococcal, diphtheria and bacillus Calmette-Guérin vaccines, and the remaining five studies described both influenza and non-influenza vaccines. The uptake of seasonal influenza vaccine ranged from 0.7% to 100% across the study populations, with coverage highest in the elderly and those with pre-existing co-morbidities. The effectiveness of influenza vaccine was variable across studies but was significantly effective against laboratory-confirmed influenza (risk ratio 0.56; 95% CI 0.41-0.75; p <0.001) in pooled metadata from six studies. Uptake of diphtheria and pneumococcal vaccines was low, and the only study reporting pertussis among Hajj pilgrims found the presence of pre-Hajj immunity to be significantly protective against disease. Despite favourable evidence of effectiveness, our review shows variable uptake of vaccines across a number of studies with few data available on the uptake of non-influenza vaccines. Mixed-method studies are needed to gauge knowledge, attitudes and practices of Hajj pilgrims regarding vaccination, and randomized controlled trials are required to confirm the efficacy of vaccines and improve uptake in this vulnerable travelling population.

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We analysed data from a prospective cohort of 255,024 adults aged ⩾45 years recruited from 2006-2009 to identify characteristics associated with a zoster diagnosis. Diagnoses were identified by linkage to pharmaceutical treatment and hospitalization records specific for zoster and hazard ratios were estimated. Over 940,583 person-years, 7771 participants had a zoster diagnosis; 253 (3·3%) were hospitalized. After adjusting for age and other factors, characteristics associated with zoster diagnoses included: having a recent immunosuppressive condition [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 1·58, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1·32-1·88], female sex (aHR 1·36, 95% CI 1·30-1·43), recent cancer diagnosis (aHR 1·35, 95% CI 1·24-1·46), and severe physical limitation vs. none (aHR 1·33, 95% CI 1·23-1·43). The relative risk of hospitalization for zoster was higher for those with an immunosuppressive condition (aHR 3·78, 95% CI 2·18-6·55), those with cancer (aHR 1·78, 95% CI 1·24-2·56) or with severe physical limitations (aHR 2·50, 95% CI 1·56-4·01). The novel finding of an increased risk of zoster diagnoses and hospitalizations in those with physical limitations should prompt evaluation of the use of zoster vaccine in this population.

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Serological data provide an important measure of past exposure and immunity to hepatitis A virus (HAV) infection in a population. National serosurveys from developed countries have typically indicated a decline in HAV seroprevalence over time as sanitation levels improve. We examined trends in the seroepidemiology of HAV antibodies in Victoria, Australia, drawing on cross-sectional samples taken at three time points over a 20-year period. Stored sera from 1988 (n=753), 1998 (n=1091), and 2008 (n=791) from persons aged 1-69 years were obtained from the state of Victoria, Australia. The within-year population adjusted results show a significant trend of increasing population HAV seroprevalence over time from 34.3% (95% CI 31.7-36.9) in 1988, to 40.0% (95% CI 37.1-42.8) in 1998 and 55.1% (95% CI 52.1-58.1) in 2008, P<0.0001. A particularly noticeable rise in population seroprevalence was observed between 1998 and 2008 for those aged 5-39 years. The increase in HAV seropositivity over time is in contrast to the declining rates of disease notification in Australia. Based on comparisons with other Australian data, it appears the increase in population seroprevalence over the last two decades is unlikely to be due to endemic transmission of infection. Instead, other factors, including increases in travel to HAV endemic regions, migration to Australia from HAV endemic regions and vaccine uptake are more likely causes. Ongoing monitoring of serological HAV profiles in the population is required to determine future policy direction to prevent increased burden.

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Smallpox was formally declared as eradicated in 1979. Smallpox is the only infectious disease of humans that has ever been eradicated. Poliomyelitis has been eliminated from three of the six World Health Organization (WHO) regions although not all countries within those regions always meet the elimination criteria. Elimination criteria for measles are being discussed. We use poliomyelitis and measles as examples to illustrate our assertion that the current approach to documenting measles elimination relies too heavily on criteria for surveillance quality, disadvantaging countries with long established and relatively inflexible surveillance systems. We propose an alternative approach to documenting measles elimination, with the two key criteria being molecular evidence to confirm the lack of a circulating endemic genotype for at least one year and maintenance of 95% coverage of one dose of measles-containing vaccine, with an opportunity for a second dose. Elimination status should be reviewed annually. We suggest four principles that should guide development of final criteria to document measles elimination: countries that have eliminated measles should be able to meet the elimination criteria; quality surveillance criteria are necessary but not sufficient to define elimination; quality surveillance criteria should be guided by elimination criteria, not the other way around; and elimination criteria should not differ between the WHO regions without good reason.

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Page-based linear genetic programming (GP) is proposed in which individuals are described in terms of a number of pages. Pages are expressed in terms of a fixed number of instructions, which is constant for all individuals in the population. Pairwise crossover results in the swapping of single pages, and thus, individuals are of a fixed number of instructions. Head-to-head comparison with Tree-structured GP and block-based linear GP indicates that the page-based approach evolves succinct solutions without penalizing generalization ability.

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South Africa initiated a national District Health Information System rollout strategy in the latter half of 1999. Experience has demonstrated that the implementation of an information system as a vehicle for the delivery of accountability in the management of health services, demands organisational change within a framework of human resource development and technical support. The aim of training, to empower facility and district staff to use locally generated information to improve coverage and quality of primary health care services, can only be realized if training and innovation for change are appropriately marketed and supported. The appeal of HISP software, a locally developed application system lies in its user acceptance. While computers form a vital tool in providing easily accessible information for decision-making, their use must not be seen as a panacea for all information problems in primary health care services. Strategies for promoting sustainability of DHIS implementation lie in the social processes of human resource development, changing organisational infrastructure and the use of ongoing evaluation rather than those of technical infrastructure. South Africa has developed a variety of mechanisms to facilitate this process.

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In Ghana, between January 1990 and September 1993, a series of steps were undertaken to review the existing vertical reporting procedures and to develop an integrated Health Management Information System (HMIS) for Primary Health Care (PHC). These steps included a situation analysis of the existing reporting systems; participatory design of tools for planning, data collection, feedback and reporting; field test and revision of the modified system; training of staff at all levels; development of tools for self-assessment and stimulation of routine feedback to lower levels and reporting of analysed indicators to higher levels. There were some notable achievements which included promotion of self-reliance, improved data relevance and accuracy, as well as strengthened supervision and support. However, it was difficult to identify the most appropriate institutional location for the HMIS; over-emphasis on process leads to reduced implementation; reporting was still given greater priority than analysis and use of data, and systems for collection and use were still cumbersome and time consuming. It is also difficult to prove that having better information really improves decision-making, or even coverage and quality of PHC service delivery. These issues, as well as lessons learned, are discussed in the paper.

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The health system in South Africa has to date been fragmented and centralised. The priority of the new government is to establish an integrated and decentralised district health system of which a key element is the development of district health and management information systems (H & MIS). This paper presents experiences from two projects in the Western Cape in which a process to establish a district-based H & MIS was initiated and a situation analysis of the information systems was done. The two projects applied different research methods but the results show with remarkable consistency that much time is used on data collection, but information is not used at local level. The projects have applied different approaches towards developing a district H & MIS but in both important pre-requisites for a successful, action-led H & MIS include local ownership and motivation, a process based around existing local management structures and the active involvement of the community.

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This study ascertained the relationships of patient, practitioner and consultation factors with: 1. taking a Pap smear or referral to a specialist in the consultation; and 2. an unsuccessful offer to take a Pap smear or making an appointment for a smear. In a cross-sectional study of 3478 women presenting to 230 randomly selected general practitioners in Brisbane and Toowoomba, information about most recent Pap smear, screening in the consultation, and independent variables were collected from patients and doctors. Relationships between three levels of outcome variable (no action, Pap smear taken or referral, appointment or refusal), and independent variables (practitioner variables, consultation variables, patient variables) were modelled using polytomous logistic regression. Presenting for a routine checkup and breast cancer screening were associated with all types of action. Younger age, longer consultations and consultations with a female practitioner were associated with Pap smear taking and referrals, and not appointments or refusals. Being due for a Pap smear, having blood pressure measured, consulting a younger general practitioner and one who ascribed to current guidelines on screening were associated with an appointment or a refusal, when compared with no action. Results identify different profiles of those who get a Pap smear and those who do not, the former indicating a more proactive patient group, while the latter suggest more active general practitioners who attempted opportunistic screening of passive patients, or women who do not specifically seek Pap smears. We have identified factors that have significance for developing public health programs focused on consumers and providers.

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BACKGROUND: Patient, physician, and consultation variables associated with overweight and smoking counseling in general practice consultations were examined. METHODS: A random sample of full-time general practitioners was used. The sample consisted of 7,160 patients from 230 GPs who attended for consultations on consecutive days, and self-reported information from the doctor and the patient was collected via questionnaire. The aim of this paper is to identify variables associated with the doctor's identification of overweight and smoking status and with the occurrence of counseling for these two behavioral risk factors. RESULTS: Forty percent of patients were overweight (BMI > 24) and 25% were self-reported smokers. Doctors identified 59% of overweight patients and 66% of smokers. Doctors only counseled patients identified as having the risk factor, counseling 36% of identified overweight patients and 49% of identified smokers. Identification of overweight was associated with being female, being heavier, having been previously counseled, being less well educated, presenting with an associated condition, and visiting a doctor who is younger and knows the patient's medical history well. Counseling for overweight was associated with being younger, being previously counseled, presenting with an associated condition, presenting for a routine checkup, visiting a GP who generally has longer consultations, having BP measured in the consultation, visiting an older doctor and visiting a doctor who considers identification of risk behaviors important. Identification of smokers was associated with being a heavier smoker, with those who had been previously counseled, with marital status other than single or married, with a BP measurement being taken in the consultation, and with a doctor who believed it possible to influence lifestyle change. Counseling for smoking was associated with younger patients, longer consultations, previous counseling, BP measurement, presenting with an associated condition, and not presenting frequently. CONCLUSIONS: We have identified factors associated with counseling about behavioral risk factors which provide a framework for planning education programs to increase the level of primary preventive activities within general practice.

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