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We present an approach to estimate the feedback from large-scale thawing of permafrost soils using a simplified, data-constrained model that combines three elements: soil carbon (C) maps and profiles to identify the distribution and type of C in permafrost soils; incubation experiments to quantify the rates of C lost after thaw; and models of soil thermal dynamics in response to climate warming. We call the approach the Permafrost Carbon Network Incubation-Panarctic Thermal scaling approach (PInc-PanTher). The approach assumes that C stocks do not decompose at all when frozen, but once thawed follow set decomposition trajectories as a function of soil temperature. The trajectories are determined according to a three-pool decomposition model fitted to incubation data using parameters specific to soil horizon types. We calculate litterfall C inputs required to maintain steady-state C balance for the current climate, and hold those inputs constant. Soil temperatures are taken from the soil thermal modules of ecosystem model simulations forced by a common set of future climate change anomalies under two warming scenarios over the period 2010 to 2100. Under a medium warming scenario (RCP4.5), the approach projects permafrost soil C losses of 12.2-33.4 Pg C; under a high warming scenario (RCP8.5), the approach projects C losses of 27.9-112.6 Pg C. Projected C losses are roughly linearly proportional to global temperature changes across the two scenarios. These results indicate a global sensitivity of frozen soil C to climate change (γ sensitivity) of -14 to -19 Pg C °C(-1) on a 100 year time scale. For CH4 emissions, our approach assumes a fixed saturated area and that increases in CH4 emissions are related to increased heterotrophic respiration in anoxic soil, yielding CH4 emission increases of 7% and 35% for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, which add an additional greenhouse gas forcing of approximately 10-18%. The simplified approach presented here neglects many important processes that may amplify or mitigate C release from permafrost soils, but serves as a data-constrained estimate on the forced, large-scale permafrost C response to warming.

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Large quantities of organic carbon are stored in frozen soils (permafrost) within Arctic and sub-Arctic regions. A warming climate can induce environmental changes that accelerate the microbial breakdown of organic carbon and the release of the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide and methane. This feedback can accelerate climate change, but the magnitude and timing of greenhouse gas emission from these regions and their impact on climate change remain uncertain. Here we find that current evidence suggests a gradual and prolonged release of greenhouse gas emissions in a warming climate and present a research strategy with which to target poorly understood aspects of permafrost carbon dynamics.

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Carbon (C) dynamics of boreal forest ecosystems have substantial implications for efforts to mitigate the rise of atmospheric CO2 and may be substantially influenced by warming and changing wildfire regimes. In this study we applied a large-scale ecosystem model that included dynamics of organic soil horizons and soil organic matter characteristics of multiple pools to assess forest C stock changes of the Yukon River Basin (YRB) in Alaska, USA, and Canada from 1960 through 2006, a period characterized by substantial climate warming and increases in wildfire. The model was calibrated for major forests with data from long-term research sites and evaluated using a forest inventory database. The regional assessment indicates that forest vegetation C storage increased by 46 Tg C, but that total soil C storage did not change appreciably during this period. However, further analysis suggests that C has been continuously lost from the mineral soil horizon since warming began in the 1970s, but has increased in the amorphous organic soil horizon. Based on a factorial experiment, soil C stocks would have increased by 158 Tg C if the YRB had not undergone warming and changes in fire regime. The analysis also identified that warming and changes in fire regime were approximately equivalent in their effects on soil C storage, and interactions between these two suggests that the loss of organic horizon thickness associated with increases in wildfire made deeper soil C stocks more vulnerable to loss via decomposition. Subbasin analyses indicate that C stock changes were primarily sensitive to the fraction of burned forest area within each subbasin and that boreal forest ecosystems in the YRB are currently transitioning from being sinks to sources at -0.7% annual area burned. We conclude that it is important for international mitigation efforts focused on controlling atmospheric CO2 to consider how climate warming and changes in fire regime may concurrently affect the CO2 sink strength of boreal forests. It is also important for large-scale biogeochemical and earth system models to include organic soil dynamics in applications to assess regional C dynamics of boreal forests responding to warming and changes in fire regime.

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Agricultural soil erosion is thought to perturb the global carbon cycle, but estimates of its effect range from a source of 1 petagram per year(-1) to a sink of the same magnitude. By using caesium-137 and carbon inventory measurements from a large-scale survey, we found consistent evidence for an erosion-induced sink of atmospheric carbon equivalent to approximately 26% of the carbon transported by erosion. Based on this relationship, we estimated a global carbon sink of 0.12 (range 0.06 to 0.27) petagrams of carbon per year(-1) resulting from erosion in the world's agricultural landscapes. Our analysis directly challenges the view that agricultural erosion represents an important source or sink for atmospheric CO2.

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We report measurements and analysis of a boreal forest fire, integrating the effects of greenhouse gases, aerosols, black carbon deposition on snow and sea ice, and postfire changes in surface albedo. The net effect of all agents was to increase radiative forcing during the first year (34 +/- 31 Watts per square meter of burned area), but to decrease radiative forcing when averaged over an 80-year fire cycle (-2.3 +/- 2.2 Watts per square meter) because multidecadal increases in surface albedo had a larger impact than fire-emitted greenhouse gases. This result implies that future increases in boreal fire may not accelerate climate warming.

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To reconcile observations of decomposition rates, carbon inventories, and net primary production (NPP), we estimated long-term averages for C exchange in boreal forests near Thompson, Manitoba. Soil drainage as defined by water table, moss cover, and permafrost dynamics, is the dominant control on direct fire emissions. In upland forests, an average of about 10-30% of annual NPP was likely consumed by fire over the past 6500 years since these landforms and ecosystems were established. This long-term, average fire emission is much larger than has been accounted for in global C cycle models and may forecast an increase in fire activity for this region. While over decadal to century times these boreal forests may be acting as slight net sinks for C from the atmosphere to land, periods of drought and severe fire activity may result in net sources of C from these systems.

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Recipients of organ transplants are at increased risk for infection both because of immunosuppression and because of the transfer of microbes through the donor organs. We report two cases of M. tuberculosis disease in recipients of single lung transplants who shared a common donor. Both recipients developed pulmonary tuberculosis, one having fever and pulmonary infiltrates and the other having subclinical disease with M. tuberculosis organisms being recovered from bronchoalveolar lavage. Restriction fragment length polymorphism analysis on both isolates of M. tuberculosis revealed a common source. The donor of both lungs had a normal chest radiograph and no known prior history of M. tuberculosis infection of disease. These cases are the first report of two single lung recipients developing pulmonary tuberculosis from a common donor.

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The purpose of this study was to investigate possible laboratory contamination of Mycobacterium tuberculosis cultures which resulted in the misdiagnosis of tuberculosis. We have investigated three cases in which a patient's culture was positive for M. tuberculosis but there was not a high clinical suspicion for disease. In each instance, another patient with clinically obvious pulmonary tuberculosis had specimens cultured concurrently within the same clinical laboratory. The isolates from both the obvious cases of tuberculosis and the suspect cases were obtained through the State of Alabama TB Laboratory, but these isolates originated at a commercial laboratory, a community hospital laboratory, and at a university hospital. MTB isolates were fingerprinted by probing for the insertion sequence IS6110. With each of the three pairs of isolates (case and suspicious case), identical IS6110 banding patterns were found suggesting identical MTB strains. Because the patients were geographically separated, it is strongly suspected that laboratory contamination of M. tuberculosis cultures resulted in the three suspect cases being diagnosed with tuberculosis. These findings indicate that positive M. tuberculosis cultures resulting from laboratory contamination can occur.

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Deglaciation of the Laurentide Ice Sheet in North America was accompanied by sequestration of organic carbon in newly exposed soils. The greatest rate of land exposure occurred around 12,000 to 8,000 years ago, and the greatest increase in the rate of carbon sequestration by soils occurred from 8,000 to 4,000 years ago. Sequestration of carbon in deglaciated peat lands continues today, and a steady state has not been reached. The natural rate of carbon sequestration in soils, however, is small relative to the rate of anthropogenic carbon dioxide production.

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Because of the effectiveness of isoniazid in treating tuberculosis infection, progression to tuberculosis should be largely preventable. Thus, each case of tuberculosis that occurs may be viewed as a "failure" of the prevention system. We studied the reasons for these "failures" at three centers in different geographic areas in the United States. Two hundred seventy-nine patients with bacteriologically confirmed tuberculosis were evaluated by means of a questionnaire. Our results suggest three main reasons for these missed opportunities of tuberculosis prevention. (1) Patients are out of the health care system until they develop tuberculosis. (2) Patients are in the system but are either not screened for tuberculous infection or, if screened, are not offered preventive therapy when it is appropriate. (3) Because of false negative skin test results, screening may be ineffective at the time it is applied. Advances in tuberculosis prevention will require attention to these areas.

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