RESUMEN
PURPOSE: Pollen forecasting systems can provide information for coping with respiratory allergies. They estimate daily pollen production, dispersal, deposition, and removal based on daily weather conditions to predict daily pollen concentrations and provide allergy warnings. As of 2023, the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) provides 2-day forecast of allergenic pollens. However, unlike these models, long-term analysis of annual observations of tree pollen reveal annual variations. Therefore, in this study, we aimed to develop annual prediction models for allergenic tree pollens based on long-term multi-site pollen and meteorological data. METHODS: Daily pollen concentrations were observed using Hirst-type volumetric spore traps at nine sites in Korea from 1998 to 2021, and daily weather data from the closest KMA stations were utilized. Models were developed to predict the seasonal pollen integral of seven tree species based on monthly mean temperature, wind speed, and total precipitation using three variable selection methods: 1) the t-test based key variable screening followed by linear regression with stepwise procedure (TM), 2) direct linear regression with stepwise procedure from the full variable model (FM), and 3) LASSO regression from the full variable model (LM). RESULTS: Data obtained during 1998-2017 and 2018=2021 were utilized for model development and validation, respectively. The root mean squared error, mean absolute error, mean error, and coefficient of determination (R²) revealed that the TM models were best suited for actual forecasting, even though R² in the TM model was lower than those of the FM and LM models. CONCLUSIONS: The annual variation model in this study can be integrated with the daily pollen forecast model by controlling the annual pollen potential, and the accuracy of the daily forecast can be improved accordingly.
RESUMEN
Four silica-based acaricides were examined in laboratory tests for their effectiveness against poultry red mite, Dermanyssus gallinae. All acaricides resulted in 100% mite mortality. Two groups of active ingredients could be differentiated. The products Silicosec® and Ewazid®, based on naturally occurring diatomaceous earth (DE), killed 100% of adult D. gallinae within 48 h exposure time. The time to kill 50% of the mites (LT50) was calculated to be 31.7 and 34.9 h, respectively. The other two products, containing aggregates and agglomerates of pyrogenic synthetic amorphous silicon dioxide as active ingredients, killed the mites in a significantly shorter time: LT50 was 6.3 h for the liquid product Fossil Shield® Instant White and 11.8 h for the powdery product Fossil Shield 90.0 White. This is more remarkable as the quantities of active ingredients used for the DE treatments were several folds higher. The effectiveness of all tested products was also shown in practical tests. A professional company treated five chicken houses on one farm in the Berlin-Brandenburg region with the test products, three houses with Fossil Shield Instant White and one each with Ewazid and Silicosec. Over a period of 46 weeks after stocking, the mite development in the houses was assessed. Only in one of the houses, treated with Fossil Shield Instant White, the mite population remained permanently low. In two houses treated with Fossil Shield Instant White, small mite colonies appeared in week 36, which were controlled by a follow-up spot treatment in week 41. In the houses treated with DE, the first mite colonies appeared 12 weeks after stocking. The number increased continuously over the experimental period and in week 31 after stocking there were clearly visible colonies (2-3 cm diameter) and the first mites could also be detected on the chicken eggs. At this time both houses were treated again with a follow-up spot-treatment, which only led to a slight improvement in one house and to a stabilization of the infestation in the other house. In week 41, large mite colonies were detected in both houses. A spot treatment at this point was ineffective in reducing the infestation. The tests showed faster acaricidal action of the products with the synthetic active ingredients compared to the natural DE-based products. This matches the shorter killing times under laboratory conditions. The experiments in a commercial chicken farm showed that it is possible to control the mite population for a period of 46 weeks by using physically effective SiO2-based products. These products are therefore an effective alternative to the use of chemical acaricides.