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PURPOSE: This study aimed to predict the probability of grade ≥2 pneumonitis or dyspnea within 12 months of receiving conventionally fractionated or mildly hypofractionated proton beam therapy for locally advanced lung cancer using machine learning. METHODS AND MATERIALS: Demographic and treatment characteristics were analyzed for 965 consecutive patients treated for lung cancer with conventionally fractionated or mildly hypofractionated (2.2-3 Gy/fraction) proton beam therapy across 12 institutions. Three machine learning models (gradient boosting, additive tree, and logistic regression with lasso regularization) were implemented to predict Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events version 4 grade ≥2 pulmonary toxicities using double 10-fold cross-validation for parameter hyper-tuning without leak of information. Balanced accuracy and area under the curve were calculated, and 95% confidence intervals were obtained using bootstrap sampling. RESULTS: The median age of the patients was 70 years (range, 20-97), and they had predominantly stage IIIA or IIIB disease. They received a median dose of 60 Gy in 2 Gy/fraction, and 46.4% received concurrent chemotherapy. In total, 250 (25.9%) had grade ≥2 pulmonary toxicity. The probability of pulmonary toxicity was 0.08 for patients treated with pencil beam scanning and 0.34 for those treated with other techniques (P = 8.97e-13). Use of abdominal compression and breath hold were highly significant predictors of less toxicity (P = 2.88e-08). Higher total radiation delivered dose (P = .0182) and higher average dose to the ipsilateral lung (P = .0035) increased the likelihood of pulmonary toxicities. The gradient boosting model performed the best of the models tested, and when demographic and dosimetric features were combined, the area under the curve and balanced accuracy were 0.75 ± 0.02 and 0.67 ± 0.02, respectively. After analyzing performance versus the number of data points used for training, we observed that accuracy was limited by the number of observations. CONCLUSIONS: In the largest analysis of prospectively enrolled patients with lung cancer assessing pulmonary toxicities from proton therapy to date, advanced machine learning methods revealed that pencil beam scanning, abdominal compression, and lower normal lung doses can lead to significantly lower probability of developing grade ≥2 pneumonitis or dyspnea.

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Liver transplantation (LT) is a treatment for acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF), but high post-LT mortality has been reported. Existing post-LT models in ACLF have been limited. We developed an Expert-Augmented Machine Learning (EAML) model to predict post-LT outcomes. We identified ACLF patients who underwent LT in the University of California Health Data Warehouse. We applied the RuleFit machine learning (ML) algorithm to extract rules from decision trees and create intermediate models. We asked human experts to rate the rules generated by RuleFit and incorporated these ratings to generate final EAML models. We identified 1384 ACLF patients. For death at 1 year, areas under the receiver-operating characteristic curve were 0.707 (confidence interval [CI] 0.625-0.793) for EAML and 0.719 (CI 0.640-0.800) for RuleFit. For death at 90 days, areas under the receiver-operating characteristic curve were 0.678 (CI 0.581-0.776) for EAML and 0.707 (CI 0.615-0.800) for RuleFit. In pairwise comparisons, both EAML and RuleFit models outperformed cross-sectional models. Significant discrepancies between experts and ML occurred in rankings of biomarkers used in clinical practice. EAML may serve as a method for ML-guided hypothesis generation in further ACLF research.

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Introduction: There remains a need to better identify patients at highest risk for developing severe Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) as additional waves of the pandemic continue to impact hospital systems. We sought to characterize the association of receptor for advanced glycation end products (RAGE), SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid viral antigen, and a panel of thromboinflammatory biomarkers with development of severe disease in patients presenting to the emergency department with symptomatic COVID-19. Methods: Blood samples were collected on arrival from 77 patients with symptomatic COVID-19, and plasma levels of thromboinflammatory biomarkers were measured. Results: Differences in biomarkers between those who did and did not develop severe disease or death 7 days after presentation were analyzed. After adjustment for multiple comparisons, RAGE, SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid viral antigen, interleukin (IL)-6, IL-10 and tumor necrosis factor receptor (TNFR)-1 were significantly elevated in the group who developed severe disease (all p<0.05). In a multivariable regression model, RAGE and SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid viral antigen remained significant risk factors for development of severe disease (both p<0.05), and each had sensitivity and specificity >80% on cut-point analysis. Discussion: Elevated RAGE and SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid viral antigen on emergency department presentation are strongly associated with development of severe disease at 7 days. These findings are of clinical relevance for patient prognostication and triage as hospital systems continue to be overwhelmed. Further studies are warranted to determine the feasibility and utility of point-of care measurements of these biomarkers in the emergency department setting to improve patient prognostication and triage.

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OBJECTIVE: To further elucidate the relationship between low socioeconomic status (SES) and larger, more complex stones requiring staged surgical interventions. Specifically, we aimed to determine if underinsurance (Medicaid, Medicare, and self-pay insurance types) is associated with multiple surgeries within 1 year. METHODS: We performed a retrospective longitudinal analysis of prospectively collected data from the California statewide Department of Health Care Access and Information (HCAI) dataset. We included adult patients who had their first recorded kidney stone encounter between 2009 and 2018 and underwent at least 1 urologic stone procedure. We followed these patients within the dataset for one year after their initial surgery to assess for factors predicting multiple surgical treatments for stones. RESULTS: A total of 156,319 adults were included in the study. The proportions of individuals in private insurance, Medicaid, Medicare and self-pay/indigent groups differed by the presence or absence of additional surgeries (64.0%, 13.5%, 19.4%, and 0.1%, vs 70.3%, 10.1%, 16.6%, and 0.1%, respectively). Compared to private insurance, Medicaid (1.46 [1.40-1.53] P < .001) and Medicare (1.15 [1.10-1.20] P < .001) insurance types were associated with significantly greater odds of multiple surgeries, whereas no significant association was seen in the self-pay/indigent insurance type (1.35 [0.83-2.19], P = 1.0). CONCLUSION: In a statewide, California database from 2009 to 2018, underinsured adults had higher odds of undergoing a second procedure for kidney stones within 1 year of initial surgical treatment. This study adds to the expanding body of literature linking suboptimal healthcare access and disparate outcomes for kidney stone patients.

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Introduction: Heart failure (HF) is a frequent cause of readmissions. Despite caring for underresourced patients and dependence on government funding, safety net hospitals frequently incur penalties for failing to meet pay-for-performance readmission metrics. Limited research exists on the causes of HF readmissions in safety net hospitals. Therefore, we sought to investigate predictors of 30-day all-cause readmission in HF patients in the safety net setting. Methods: We performed a retrospective chart review of patients admitted for HF from October 2018 to April 2019. We extracted data on demographics and medical comorbidities and performed patient-specific review of social determinants and mental health in 4 domains: race/ethnicity, housing status, substance use, and mental illness. Multivariable Poisson regression modeling was employed to evaluate associations with 30-day all-cause readmission. Results: The study population included 290 patients, among whom the mean age was 59 years and 71% (n = 207) were male; 42% (120) were Black/African American (AA), 22% (64) were Hispanic/Latino, and 96% (278) had public insurance; 28% (79) were not housed, 19% (56) had a diagnosis of mental illness, and active substance use was common. The 30-day readmission rate was 25.5% (n = 88). Factors that were associated with increased risk of readmission included self-identifying as Black/AA (relative risk 2.28, 95% confidence interval 1.00-5.20) or Hispanic/Latino (2.53, 1.07-6.00), experiencing homelessness (2.07, 1.21-3.56), living in a shelter (3.20, 1.27-8.02), or intravenous drug use (IVDU) (2.00, 1.08-3.70). Conclusion: Race/ethnicity, housing status, and substance use were associated with increased risk of 30-day all-cause readmission in HF patients in a safety net hospital. In contrast to prior studies, medical comorbidities were not associated with increased risk of readmission.

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BACKGROUND: In comparison with the general population, adolescents with juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA) are at higher risk for morbidity and mortality. However, limited evidence is available about this condition's underlying metabolic profile in adolescents with JIA relative to healthy controls. In this untargeted, cross-sectional metabolomics study, we explore the plasma metabolites in this population. METHODS: A sample of 20 adolescents with JIA and 20 controls aged 13-17 years were recruited to complete surveys, provide medical histories and biospecimens, and undergo assessments. Fasting morning plasma samples were processed with liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry. Data were centered, scaled, and analyzed using generalized linear models accounting for age, sex, and medications (p-values adjusted for multiple comparisons using the Holm method). Spearman's correlations were used to evaluate relationships among metabolites, time since diagnosis, and disease severity. RESULTS: Of 72 metabolites identified in the samples, 55 were common to both groups. After adjustments, 6 metabolites remained significantly different between groups. Alpha-glucose, alpha-ketoglutarate, serine, and N-acetylaspartate were significantly lower in the JIA group than in controls; glycine and cystine were higher. Seven additional metabolites were detected only in the JIA group; 10 additional metabolites were detected only in the control group. Metabolites were unrelated to disease severity or time since diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: The metabolic signature of adolescents with JIA relative to controls reflects a disruption in oxidative stress; neurological health; and amino acid, caffeine, and energy metabolism pathways. Serine and N-acetylaspartate were promising potential biomarkers, and their metabolic pathways are linked to both JIA and cardiovascular disease risk. The pathways may be a source of new diagnostic, treatment, or prevention options. This study's findings contribute new knowledge for systems biology and precision health approaches to JIA research. Further research is warranted to confirm these findings in a larger sample.

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Using cross validation to select the best model from a library is standard practice in machine learning. Similarly, meta learning is a widely used technique where models previously developed are combined (mainly linearly) with the expectation of improving performance with respect to individual models. In this article we consider the Conditional Super Learner (CSL), an algorithm that selects the best model candidate from a library of models conditional on the covariates. The CSL expands the idea of using cross validation to select the best model and merges it with meta learning. We propose an optimization algorithm that finds a local minimum to the problem posed and proves that it converges at a rate faster than Op(n-1/4). We offer empirical evidence that: (1) CSL is an excellent candidate to substitute stacking and (2) CLS is suitable for the analysis of Hierarchical problems. Additionally, implications for global interpretability are emphasized.

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The estimation of nested functions (i.e., functions of functions) is one of the central reasons for the success and popularity of machine learning. Today, artificial neural networks are the predominant class of algorithms in this area, known as representational learning. Here, we introduce Representational Gradient Boosting (RGB), a nonparametric algorithm that estimates functions with multi-layer architectures obtained using backpropagation in the space of functions. RGB does not need to assume a functional form in the nodes or output (e.g., linear models or rectified linear units), but rather estimates these transformations. RGB can be seen as an optimized stacking procedure where a meta algorithm learns how to combine different classes of functions (e.g., Neural Networks (NN) and Gradient Boosting (GB)), while building and optimizing them jointly in an attempt to compensate each other's weaknesses. This highlights a stark difference with current approaches to meta-learning that combine models only after they have been built independently. We showed that providing optimized stacking is one of the main advantages of RGB over current approaches. Additionally, due to the nested nature of RGB we also showed how it improves over GB in problems that have several high-order interactions. Finally, we investigate both theoretically and in practice the problem of recovering nested functions and the value of prior knowledge.

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Adherence to non-pharmaceutical interventions to prevent the transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has been highly variable across settings, particularly in the USA. In this Personal View, we review data supporting the importance of the viral inoculum (the dose of viral particles from an infected source over time) in increasing the probability of infection in respiratory, gastrointestinal, and sexually transmitted viral infections in humans. We also review the available evidence linking the relationship of the viral inoculum to disease severity. Non-pharmaceutical interventions might reduce the susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2 infection by reducing the viral inoculum when there is exposure to an infectious source. Data from physical sciences research suggest that masks protect the wearer by filtering virus from external sources, and others by reducing expulsion of virus by the wearer. Social distancing, handwashing, and improved ventilation also reduce the exposure amount of viral particles from an infectious source. Maintaining and increasing non-pharmaceutical interventions can help to quell SARS-CoV-2 as we enter the second year of the pandemic. Finally, we argue that even as safe and effective vaccines are being rolled out, non-pharmaceutical interventions will continue to play an essential role in suppressing SARS-CoV-2 transmission until equitable and widespread vaccine administration has been completed.

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The parieto-frontal integration theory (PFIT) identified a fronto-parietal network of regions where individual differences in brain parameters most strongly relate to cognitive performance. PFIT was supported and extended in adult samples, but not in youths or within single-scanner well-powered multimodal studies. We performed multimodal neuroimaging in 1601 youths age 8-22 on the same 3-Tesla scanner with contemporaneous neurocognitive assessment, measuring volume, gray matter density (GMD), mean diffusivity (MD), cerebral blood flow (CBF), resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging measures of the amplitude of low frequency fluctuations (ALFFs) and regional homogeneity (ReHo), and activation to a working memory and a social cognition task. Across age and sex groups, better performance was associated with higher volumes, greater GMD, lower MD, lower CBF, higher ALFF and ReHo, and greater activation for the working memory task in PFIT regions. However, additional cortical, striatal, limbic, and cerebellar regions showed comparable effects, hence PFIT needs expansion into an extended PFIT (ExtPFIT) network incorporating nodes that support motivation and affect. Associations of brain parameters became stronger with advancing age group from childhood to adolescence to young adulthood, effects occurring earlier in females. This ExtPFIT network is developmentally fine-tuned, optimizing abundance and integrity of neural tissue while maintaining a low resting energy state.

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Machine learning is proving invaluable across disciplines. However, its success is often limited by the quality and quantity of available data, while its adoption is limited by the level of trust afforded by given models. Human vs. machine performance is commonly compared empirically to decide whether a certain task should be performed by a computer or an expert. In reality, the optimal learning strategy may involve combining the complementary strengths of humans and machines. Here, we present expert-augmented machine learning (EAML), an automated method that guides the extraction of expert knowledge and its integration into machine-learned models. We used a large dataset of intensive-care patient data to derive 126 decision rules that predict hospital mortality. Using an online platform, we asked 15 clinicians to assess the relative risk of the subpopulation defined by each rule compared to the total sample. We compared the clinician-assessed risk to the empirical risk and found that, while clinicians agreed with the data in most cases, there were notable exceptions where they overestimated or underestimated the true risk. Studying the rules with greatest disagreement, we identified problems with the training data, including one miscoded variable and one hidden confounder. Filtering the rules based on the extent of disagreement between clinician-assessed risk and empirical risk, we improved performance on out-of-sample data and were able to train with less data. EAML provides a platform for automated creation of problem-specific priors, which help build robust and dependable machine-learning models in critical applications.

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BACKGROUND: We investigated prognostic models based on clinical, radiologic, and radiomic feature to preoperatively identify meningiomas at risk for poor outcomes. METHODS: Retrospective review was performed for 303 patients who underwent resection of 314 meningiomas (57% World Health Organization grade I, 35% grade II, and 8% grade III) at two independent institutions, which comprised primary and external datasets. For each patient in the primary dataset, 16 radiologic and 172 radiomic features were extracted from preoperative magnetic resonance images, and prognostic features for grade, local failure (LF) or overall survival (OS) were identified using the Kaplan-Meier method, log-rank tests and recursive partitioning analysis. Regressions and random forests were used to generate and test prognostic models, which were validated using the external dataset. RESULTS: Multivariate analysis revealed that apparent diffusion coefficient hypointensity (HR 5.56, 95% CI 2.01-16.7, P = .002) was associated with high grade meningioma, and low sphericity was associated both with increased LF (HR 2.0, 95% CI 1.1-3.5, P = .02) and worse OS (HR 2.94, 95% CI 1.47-5.56, P = .002). Both radiologic and radiomic predictors of adverse meningioma outcomes were significantly associated with molecular markers of aggressive meningioma biology, such as somatic mutation burden, DNA methylation status, and FOXM1 expression. Integrated prognostic models combining clinical, radiologic, and radiomic features demonstrated improved accuracy for meningioma grade, LF, and OS (area under the curve 0.78, 0.75, and 0.78, respectively) compared to models based on clinical features alone. CONCLUSIONS: Preoperative radiologic and radiomic features such as apparent diffusion coefficient and sphericity can predict tumor grade, LF, and OS in patients with meningioma.

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The expansion of machine learning to high-stakes application domains such as medicine, finance, and criminal justice, where making informed decisions requires clear understanding of the model, has increased the interest in interpretable machine learning. The widely used Classification and Regression Trees (CART) have played a major role in health sciences, due to their simple and intuitive explanation of predictions. Ensemble methods like gradient boosting can improve the accuracy of decision trees, but at the expense of the interpretability of the generated model. Additive models, such as those produced by gradient boosting, and full interaction models, such as CART, have been investigated largely in isolation. We show that these models exist along a spectrum, revealing previously unseen connections between these approaches. This paper introduces a rigorous formalization for the additive tree, an empirically validated learning technique for creating a single decision tree, and shows that this method can produce models equivalent to CART or gradient boosted stumps at the extremes by varying a single parameter. Although the additive tree is designed primarily to provide both the model interpretability and predictive performance needed for high-stakes applications like medicine, it also can produce decision trees represented by hybrid models between CART and boosted stumps that can outperform either of these approaches.

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The human brain consumes a disproportionate amount of the body's overall metabolic resources, and evidence suggests that brain and body may compete for substrate during development. Using perfusion MRI from a large cross-sectional cohort, we examined developmental changes of MRI-derived estimates of brain metabolism, in relation to weight change. Nonlinear models demonstrated that, in childhood, changes in body weight were inversely related to developmental age-related changes in brain metabolism. This inverse relationship persisted through early adolescence, after which body and brain metabolism began to decline. Females achieved maximum body growth approximately two years earlier than males, with a correspondingly earlier stabilization of brain metabolism to adult levels. These findings confirm prior findings with positron emission tomography performed in a much smaller cohort, demonstrate that relative brain metabolism can be inferred from noninvasive MRI data, and extend observations on the associations between body growth and brain metabolism to sex differences through adolescence.

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BACKGROUND: Meningiomas are stratified according to tumor grade and extent of resection, often in isolation of other clinical variables. Here, we use machine learning (ML) to integrate demographic, clinical, radiographic and pathologic data to develop predictive models for meningioma outcomes. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We developed a comprehensive database containing information from 235 patients who underwent surgery for 257 meningiomas at a single institution from 1990 to 2015. The median follow-up was 4.3 years, and resection specimens were re-evaluated according to current diagnostic criteria, revealing 128 WHO grade I, 104 grade II and 25 grade III meningiomas. A series of ML algorithms were trained and tuned by nested resampling to create models based on preoperative features, conventional postoperative features, or both. We compared different algorithms' accuracy as well as the unique insights they offered into the data. Machine learning models restricted to preoperative information, such as patient demographics and radiographic features, had similar accuracy for predicting local failure (AUC = 0.74) or overall survival (AUC = 0.68) as models based on meningioma grade and extent of resection (AUC = 0.73 and AUC = 0.72, respectively). Integrated models incorporating all available demographic, clinical, radiographic and pathologic data provided the most accurate estimates (AUC = 0.78 and AUC = 0.74, respectively). From these models, we developed decision trees and nomograms to estimate the risks of local failure or overall survival for meningioma patients. CONCLUSIONS: Clinical information has been historically underutilized in the prediction of meningioma outcomes. Predictive models trained on preoperative clinical data perform comparably to conventional models trained on meningioma grade and extent of resection. Combination of all available information can help stratify meningioma patients more accurately.

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PURPOSE: The purpose of this study was to compare the performance of Deep Neural Networks against a technique designed by domain experts in the prediction of gamma passing rates for Intensity Modulated Radiation Therapy Quality Assurance (IMRT QA). METHOD: A total of 498 IMRT plans across all treatment sites were planned in Eclipse version 11 and delivered using a dynamic sliding window technique on Clinac iX or TrueBeam Linacs. Measurements were performed using a commercial 2D diode array, and passing rates for 3%/3 mm local dose/distance-to-agreement (DTA) were recorded. Separately, fluence maps calculated for each plan were used as inputs to a convolution neural network (CNN). The CNNs were trained to predict IMRT QA gamma passing rates using TensorFlow and Keras. A set of model architectures, inspired by the convolutional blocks of the VGG-16 ImageNet model, were constructed and implemented. Synthetic data, created by rotating and translating the fluence maps during training, was created to boost the performance of the CNNs. Dropout, batch normalization, and data augmentation were utilized to help train the model. The performance of the CNNs was compared to a generalized Poisson regression model, previously developed for this application, which used 78 expert designed features. RESULTS: Deep Neural Networks without domain knowledge achieved comparable performance to a baseline system designed by domain experts in the prediction of 3%/3 mm Local gamma passing rates. An ensemble of neural nets resulted in a mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.70 ± 0.05 and the domain expert model resulted in a 0.74 ± 0.06. CONCLUSIONS: Convolutional neural networks (CNNs) with transfer learning can predict IMRT QA passing rates by automatically designing features from the fluence maps without human expert supervision. Predictions from CNNs are comparable to a system carefully designed by physicist experts.

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Data quality is increasingly recognized as one of the most important confounding factors in brain imaging research. It is particularly important for studies of brain development, where age is systematically related to in-scanner motion and data quality. Prior work has demonstrated that in-scanner head motion biases estimates of structural neuroimaging measures. However, objective measures of data quality are not available for most structural brain images. Here we sought to identify quantitative measures of data quality for T1-weighted volumes, describe how these measures relate to cortical thickness, and delineate how this in turn may bias inference regarding associations with age in youth. Three highly-trained raters provided manual ratings of 1840 raw T1-weighted volumes. These images included a training set of 1065 images from Philadelphia Neurodevelopmental Cohort (PNC), a test set of 533 images from the PNC, as well as an external test set of 242 adults acquired on a different scanner. Manual ratings were compared to automated quality measures provided by the Preprocessed Connectomes Project's Quality Assurance Protocol (QAP), as well as FreeSurfer's Euler number, which summarizes the topological complexity of the reconstructed cortical surface. Results revealed that the Euler number was consistently correlated with manual ratings across samples. Furthermore, the Euler number could be used to identify images scored "unusable" by human raters with a high degree of accuracy (AUC: 0.98-0.99), and out-performed proxy measures from functional timeseries acquired in the same scanning session. The Euler number also was significantly related to cortical thickness in a regionally heterogeneous pattern that was consistent across datasets and replicated prior results. Finally, data quality both inflated and obscured associations with age during adolescence. Taken together, these results indicate that reliable measures of data quality can be automatically derived from T1-weighted volumes, and that failing to control for data quality can systematically bias the results of studies of brain maturation.

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Developmental structural neuroimaging studies in humans have long described decreases in gray matter volume (GMV) and cortical thickness (CT) during adolescence. Gray matter density (GMD), a measure often assumed to be highly related to volume, has not been systematically investigated in development. We used T1 imaging data collected on the Philadelphia Neurodevelopmental Cohort to study age-related effects and sex differences in four regional gray matter measures in 1189 youths ranging in age from 8 to 23 years. Custom T1 segmentation and a novel high-resolution gray matter parcellation were used to extract GMD, GMV, gray matter mass (GMM; defined as GMD × GMV), and CT from 1625 brain regions. Nonlinear models revealed that each modality exhibits unique age-related effects and sex differences. While GMV and CT generally decrease with age, GMD increases and shows the strongest age-related effects, while GMM shows a slight decline overall. Females have lower GMV but higher GMD than males throughout the brain. Our findings suggest that GMD is a prime phenotype for the assessment of brain development and likely cognition and that periadolescent gray matter loss may be less pronounced than previously thought. This work highlights the need for combined quantitative histological MRI studies.SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT This study demonstrates that different MRI-derived gray matter measures show distinct age and sex effects and should not be considered equivalent but complementary. It is shown for the first time that gray matter density increases from childhood to young adulthood, in contrast with gray matter volume and cortical thickness, and that females, who are known to have lower gray matter volume than males, have higher density throughout the brain. A custom preprocessing pipeline and a novel high-resolution parcellation were created to analyze brain scans of 1189 youths collected as part of the Philadelphia Neurodevelopmental Cohort. A clear understanding of normal structural brain development is essential for the examination of brain-behavior relationships, the study of brain disease, and, ultimately, clinical applications of neuroimaging.

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