RESUMEN
BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to construct and validate an artificial neural network (ANN) model to identify severe acute pancreatitis (AP) and predict fatal outcome. METHODS: All patients who presented with AP from January 2000 to September 2004 were reviewed. Presentation data on admission and at 48 hours were collected. Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II and Glasgow severity (GS) score were calculated. A feed-forward ANN was created and trained to predict development of severe AP and mortality from AP; 25% of the data set was withheld from training and was used to evaluate the accuracy of the ANN. Accuracy of the ANN in predicting severity of AP was compared with APACHE II and GS scores. RESULTS: A total of 664 patients with AP were identified of whom 181 (27.3%) fulfilled the clinical and radiologic criteria for severe pancreatitis and 42 patients died (6.3%). Median APACHE II score at 48 hours was 4 (range, 0 to 23). ANN was more accurate than APACHE II or GS scoring systems at predicting progression to a severe course (P < .05 and P < .01, respectively), predicting development of multiorgan dysfunction syndrome (P < .05 and P < .01) and at predicting death from AP (P < .05). CONCLUSIONS: An ANN was able to predict progression to severe disease, development of organ failure and mortality from acute pancreatitis with considerable accuracy and outperformed other clinical risk scoring systems. Further studies are required to assess its utility in aiding management decisions in patients with AP.
Asunto(s)
Redes Neurales de la Computación , Pancreatitis/diagnóstico , APACHE , Adulto , Anciano , Anciano de 80 o más Años , Femenino , Escala de Consecuencias de Glasgow , Humanos , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Insuficiencia Multiorgánica/etiología , Pancreatitis/sangre , Pancreatitis/complicaciones , Pancreatitis/mortalidad , Pronóstico , Escocia/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: During orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT) for acute liver failure (ALF), some patients develop acute increases in intracranial pressure (ICP). The authors tested the hypothesis that increases in ICP during OLT for ALF can be prevented by moderate hypothermia. METHODS: Sixteen patients with ALF undergoing OLT were studied. Depending on the measured ICP before OLT, the patients were divided into three groups as follows: group I (n=6), did not require treatment for increased ICP (ICP <15 mm Hg); group II (n=5), had episodes of increased ICP that were controlled by conventional treatment (group I and group II patients were maintained normothermic during OLT); and group III (n=5), had uncontrolled increased ICP before OLT for which they had been cooled and underwent OLT with the median core temperature of 33.4 degrees C (92.1 degrees F) (range, 31.9 degrees -33.8 degrees C [89.4 degrees -92.8 degrees F]) RESULTS: There was a significant increase in ICP during the dissection and reperfusion phases in the patients in groups I and II (P=0.004 and P=0.006, respectively). Patients in group III had no significant increase in ICP during the OLT. The increase in ICP in groups I and II was associated with an increase in cerebral blood flow, which was not observed in group III. The increase in ICP was corrected during the anhepatic phase of the operation. There was no difference in the requirement of transfusions or incidence of postoperative infection between the groups. CONCLUSIONS: Moderate hypothermia is safe and successfully prevents increases in ICP during OLT for ALF.