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INTRODUCTION: Universal Health Coverage (UHC) is a widely accepted objective among entities providing development assistance for health (DAH) and DAH recipient governments. One key metric to assess progress with UHC is financial risk protection, but empirical evidence on the extent to which DAH is associated to financial risk protection (and hence UHC) is scarce. METHODS: Our sample is comprised of 65 countries whose DAH per capita is above the population -weighted average DAH per capita across all countries. The sample comprises of 1.7 million household observations, for the period 2000-2016. We run country and year fixed effects regressions, and pseudo-panel models, to assess the association between DAH and three measures of financial risk protection: catastrophic health expenditure (i.e., out-of-pocket health expenditures larger than 10% of total household expenditures ['CHE10%']), out-of-pocket health expenditure as a share of total expenditure ('OOP%'), and impoverishment due to health expenditures, at the 1.90US$ per day poverty line ('IMP190'). RESULTS: on average, DAH investment does not appear to be significantly associated with financial risk protection outcomes. However, we find suggestive evidence that a 1 US$ increase in DAH per capita is negatively associated (i.e., an improvement) with at least one financial risk protection outcome for the poorest household quintile within countries (in fixed effects models, IMP190: 0.05 percentage points, p < 0.1; in pseudo-panel models, CHE10%: 0.12 percentage points, p < 0.01). DAH is also negatively associated (i.e., an improvement) with most financial risk protection outcomes when it is largely channelled via government systems (i.e., when it is "on-budget") (CHE10%: 0.68 percentage points, p < 0.05). Several robustness checks confirm these results. DISCUSSION: DAH investments require careful planning to improve financial risk protection. For example, positive DAH effects for the poorest quintiles of the population might be driven by DAH targeting poorer populations and doing so effectively. Our results also suggest that channelling more resources via governments might be a promising avenue to enhance the impact of DAH on financial risk protection.

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Universal health coverage (UHC), health equity and reduction of income inequalities are key objectives for the Sierra Leone government. While investing in health systems may drive economic growth, it is less clear whether investing in health systems reduces income inequality. Therefore, a crucial issue is to what extent the Sierra Leone public healthcare system reduces income inequality, and finances and provides healthcare services equitably. We use data from the Sierra Leone Integrated Household Survey 2018 to complete a financing and benefit incidence analysis of the Sierra Leone public healthcare system. We extend these analyses by assessing the redistributive effect of the public healthcare system (i.e. fiscal incidence analysis). We compute the redistributive effect as the change in Gini index induced by the payments for, and provision of, public healthcare services. The financing incidence of the Sierra Leone public healthcare system is marginally progressive (i.e. Kakwani index: 0.011*, P-value <0.1). With regard to public healthcare benefits, while primary healthcare (PHC) benefits are pro-poor, secondary/tertiary benefits are pro-rich. The result is that overall public healthcare benefits are equally distributed (concentration index (CI): 0.008, not statistically different from zero). However, needs are concentrated among the poor, so benefits are pro-rich when needs are considered. We find that the public healthcare system redistributes resources from better-off quintiles to worse-off quintiles (Gini coefficient reduction induced by public healthcare system = 0.5%). PHC receives less financing than secondary/tertiary care but delivers a larger reduction in income inequality. The Sierra Leone public healthcare system redistributes resources and reduces income inequality. However, the redistributive effect occurs largely thanks to PHC services being markedly pro-poor, and the Sierra Leone health system could be more equitable. Policy-makers interested in improving Sierra Leone public health system equity and reducing income inequalities should prioritize PHC investments.

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Several low- and middle-income countries are considering health financing system reforms to accelerate progress toward universal health coverage (UHC). However, empirical evidence of the effect of health financing systems on health system outcomes is scarce, partly because it is difficult to quantitatively capture the 'health financing system'. We assign country-year observations to one of three health financing systems (i.e., predominantly out-of-pocket, social health insurance (SHI) or government-financed), using clustering based on out-of-pocket, contributory SHI and non-contributory government expenditure, as a percentage of total health expenditures. We then estimate the effect of these different systems on health system outcomes, using fixed effects regressions. We find that transitions from OOP-dominant to government-financed systems improved most outcomes more than did transitions to SHI systems. Transitions to government financing increases life expectancy (+1.3 years, p < 0.05) and reduces under-5 mortality (-8.7%, p < 0.05) and catastrophic health expenditure incidence (-3.3 percentage points, p < 0.05). Results are robust to several sensitivity tests. It is more likely that increases in non-contributory government financing rather than SHI financing improve health system outcomes. Notable reasons include SHI's higher implementation costs and more limited coverage. These results may raise a warning for policymakers considering SHI reforms to reach UHC.

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Following publication of the original article [1], we have been notified that part of the Results part of the Abstract text is mentioned with the mistake.

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INTRODUCTION: Access to Liberia's health system is reliant on out-of-pocket (OOP) health expenditures which may prevent people from seeking care or result in catastrophic health expenditure (CHE). CHE and impoverishment due to OOP, which are used by the World Bank and World Health Organization as the sole measures of financial risk protection, are limited: they do not consider households who, following a health shock, do not incur expenditure because they cannot access the healthcare services they need (i.e., households forgoing healthcare (HFH) services). This paper attempts to overcome this limitation and improve financial risk protection by measuring HFH incidence and comparing it with CHE standard measures using household survey data from Liberia. METHODS: Data from the Liberia Household Income and Expenditure Survey 2014 were analysed. An OOP health expenditure is catastrophic when it exceeds a total or non-food household expenditure threshold. A CHE incidence curve, representing CHE incidence at different thresholds, was developed. To overcome CHE limitations, an HFH incidence measure was developed based on CHE, OOP and health shocks data: households incurring health shocks and having negligible OOP were considered to have forgone healthcare. HFH incidence was compared with standard CHE measures. RESULTS: CHE incidence and intensity levels depend on the threshold used. Using a 30% non-food expenditure threshold, CHE incidence is 2.1% (95% CI: 1.7-2.5%) and CHE intensity is 37.4% (95% CI: 22.7-52.0%). CHE incidence is approximately in line with other countries, while CHE intensity is higher than in other countries. CHE pushed 1.6% of households below the food poverty line in 2014. c approximately 4 times higher than CHE (8.0, 95% CI, 7.2-8.9%). CONCLUSION: Lack of financial risk protection is a significant problem in Liberia and it may be underestimated by CHE: this study confirms that HFH incidence can complement CHE measures in providing a complete picture of financial risk protection and demonstrates a simple method that includes measures of healthcare forgone as part of standard CHE analyses. This paper provides a new methodology to measure HFH incidence and highlights the need to consider healthcare forgone in analyses of financial risk protection, as well as the need for further development of these measures.

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