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INTRODUCTION: Evaluation of a severity grade (SG) is important to classify patients for efficient use of limited medical resources. This study validates two existing evaluation systems for the prevention of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Japan: a criterion of SG and a list of 14 specialized underlying diseases (SUDs). METHODS: A retrospective cohort was created using electronic medical records from 18 research institutes. The cohort includes 6,050 COVID-19 patients with two types of diagnosis information as follows: SG at hospitalization among mild, moderate I, moderate II, and severe and aggravation after hospitalization. RESULTS: A crude mortality rate and an aggravation rate increased by the worsening of SG in the COVID-19 cohort. The transition of the aggravation rate was notable for COVID-19 patients with SUD. A conditional probability of the mortality given the aggravation in the COVID-19 cohort was 87.4% compared to mild or moderate patients (approximately 21%-45%) who have the possibility of the aggravation. An odds ratio of the mortality and aggravation information about the SUD list was higher than other variables. CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrated the possibility of improving the criteria of SG by including the SUD list for more effective operation of the criteria of SG. Furthermore, we demonstrated the importance of the prevention of the aggravation based on the conditional probability, and the possibility of predicting the aggravation using the risk factors.
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COVID-19 , Humanos , Estudios Retrospectivos , SARS-CoV-2 , Japón/epidemiología , Factores de RiesgoRESUMEN
This study aimed to develop a method to enable the financial estimation of each patient's uncertainty without focusing on healthcare technology. We define financial uncertainty (FU) as the difference between an actual amount of claim (AC) and the discounted present value of the AC (DAC). DAC can be calculated based on a discounted present value calculated using a cash flow, a period of investment, and a discount rate. The present study considered these three items as AC, the length of hospital stay, and the predicted mortality rate. The mortality prediction model was built using typical data items in standard level electronic medical records such as sex, age, and disease information. The performance of the prediction model was moderate because an area under curve was approximately 85%. The empirical analysis primarily compares the FU of the top 20 diseases with the actual AC using a retrospective cohort in the University of Miyazaki Hospital. The observational period is 5 years, from April 1, 2013, to March 31, 2018. The analysis demonstrates that the proportion of FU to actual AC is higher than 20% in low-weight children, patients with leukemia, brain tumor, myeloid leukemia, or non-Hodgkin's lymphoma. For these diseases, patients cannot avoid long hospitalization; therefore, the medical fee payment system should be designed based on uncertainty. Our method is both practical and generalizable because it uses a small number of data items that are required in standard electronic medical records. This method contributes to the decision-making processes of health policymakers.
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Honorarios Médicos , Hospitalización , Niño , Estudios de Cohortes , Humanos , Estudios Retrospectivos , IncertidumbreRESUMEN
This study aimed to improve generalizability of our previous study that analyzed clinical pathway (CP) completion. Although our previous study demonstrated that CP completion can reduce the length of hospital stay, it is possible for few medical organizations to extract the implementation of treatment registered on CP from typical electronic medical records. Therefore, we have defined a prospective event for event substitution, called meal completion (MC), in which patients can take their meal daily. Data were collected from April 2013 to March 2018 from the electronic medical records of the University of Miyazaki Hospital. We used propensity score matching to extract records from 8033 patients. Patients were further divided into the MC and non-MC groups; 2577 patients in each group were available for data analysis. The numbers of patients with CP completion were 646 (28.1%) in the MC group and 411 (18.2%) in the non-MC group. The P value of the chi-square test was <0.001. According to this result, there was the causation from MC to increase in CP completion. Additionally, it was possible to consider the inclusion relationship in all treatments (universal set), treatments registered on CP (subset of all treatments), and meals (subset of treatments registered on CP). In conclusion, MC can substitute for CP completion because the demonstration is appropriate for the Prentice criterion, which is often used for the evaluation of a surrogate endpoint.
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Vías Clínicas , Registros Electrónicos de Salud , Humanos , Comidas , Estudios Prospectivos , Estudios RetrospectivosRESUMEN
We have previously demonstrated that clinical pathway completion helps reduce hospital stays. However, our previous results showed only a correlation, not causation. Therefore, the current study's aim was to analyze the causation between clinical pathway completion and reduced hospital stays for patients with lung cancer. Data were collected from April 2013 to March 2018 from the electronic medical records of the University of Miyazaki Hospital. We used propensity score matching to extract records from 227 patients. Patients were further divided into a pathway completed group and a pathway not completed group; 74 patients in each group were available for data analysis. Our main analysis involved estimating the discharge curve, which was comprised of the in-hospital rate and hospital stay. Additional analyzes were performed to compare the frequency of medical treatments registered in the clinical pathway but not implemented (termed deviated medical treatments). The occurrence of these treatments meant that the clinical pathway was not completed. The main results indicated a decrease in the in-hospital rate of the completion group, compared with the not completed group. The p value of the log-rank test was <0.001 for total patients and patients who underwent resection, and 0.017 for patients who did not undergo resection. Additional results indicated that a number of intravenous drips were not implemented, despite their registration on clinical pathways. Our results indicate that clinical pathway completion contributes to improved efficiency and safety. This simplified procedure is expected to be applicable to other diseases and clinical indicators.
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Vías Clínicas/organización & administración , Sistemas de Información en Hospital/organización & administración , Tiempo de Internación/estadística & datos numéricos , Neoplasias Pulmonares/terapia , Mejoramiento de la Calidad/organización & administración , Eficiencia Organizacional , Femenino , Humanos , Japón , Masculino , Puntaje de Propensión , Estudios RetrospectivosRESUMEN
Many studies have analyzed the effects of clinical pathways, but most have considered only single diseases. The purpose of the present study was to exploratively analyze electronic medical records related to the use of clinical pathways, seeking trends that could usefully benefit clinical activity. From the data warehouse of University of Miyazaki Hospital, collected from April 2014 to March 2016, we retrospectively identified 6523 patients for whom a clinical pathway was applied. Other inclusion criteria were single hospitalization, the type of medical fee was comprehensive, and data were available so that all clinical indicators could be calculated. Two types of deviation from the clinical pathway were defined: cancellation (described in the clinical pathway but not implemented) and addition (not described in the clinical pathway but nevertheless implemented). If the code of International Classification of Diseases describing the clinical pathway differed from that describing where the medical resource was mostly spent, we considered this as indicating a complication. We compared principal clinical indicators (length of hospital stay, mortality rate, and comprehensive-volume ratio) by completion rate for the clinical pathway. Regardless of whether patients had complications, completing the clinical pathway was associated with a significant reduction in length of hospital stay. This finding indicated that length of hospital stay could be shortened if all medical treatments described in the clinical pathway were implemented. Our results demonstrated that it is possible to shorten the length of hospital stay by improving clinical pathways to include medical treatment for preventing complications.