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This study investigates variations in survival following surgery for colo-rectal cancer in the Wessex region (part of southern England), using 5147 cases diagnosed between 1 September 1991 and 31 August 1995. Survival curve estimation by life tables and Cox's proportional hazards model were used to examine geographical variation in cancer survival, with a specific focus on distance between place of residence and treatment centre, and district of treatment. We also consider whether area deprivation has an impact on survival. In seeking to answer these questions we control for possible confounders, including: age, gender, site of tumour, stage of disease at operation, hospital size and surgery type (whether elective or non-elective). District of treatment, distance and deprivation all show a relationship to outcome using survival curves, but when adjusting for other covariates using the Cox model, and considering deaths from all causes, only district of treatment was a very significant covariate (p < 0.0001). Distance, deprivation, and gender were only weakly significant (p < 0.10). Considering only deaths related to operation (within 30 days) district of treatment remained significant, but while distance had some effect on outcome, deprivation and gender ceased to be significant covariates. There is some evidence that those who live furthest from centres of treatment have the worst outcomes but the 'geography of survival' manifests itself more through where patients are treated than through area (deprivation) effects or relative location. The results have important policy implications, as they show variations among treatment centres having controlled for potentially confounding factors.

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OBJECTIVE: To analyse the prevalence of neural tube defects in small geographical areas and seek to explain any spatial variations with reference to environmental lead and deprivation. SETTING: The Fylde of Lancashire in the north west of England. DESIGN: Cases were ascertained as part of a prospective survey of major congenital malformations in babies born in the Fylde to residents there between 1957 and 1981. A matched case-control analysis used infants with cardiovascular system, alimentary tract, and urinary system malformations as controls. Conditional logistic regression was used to assess the effects of more than 10 micrograms/l lead in drinking water and the Townsend deprivation score. RESULTS: The prevalence of neural tube defects in 1957-73 was higher in Blackpool, Fleetwood, and North Fylde, whereas the three control groups showed no significant spatial variation. In 1957-81 mothers living in electoral wards with either a higher proportion of houses with more than 10 micrograms/l lead in the water or a higher deprivation score had a greater risk of having a baby with a neural tube defect. For spina bifida and cranium bifidum alone, this was also true. For anencephaly, deprivation was less important although the effect of lead was still seen. In some neural tube defects, lead may act independently of other possible factors associated with deprivation. It seemed unlikely that lead levels changed significantly during the survey. The percentage of houses with 10 micrograms/l or more of lead in the water in 1984-5 was similar to that found in Great Britain 10 years previously. CONCLUSION: There is evidence to suggest that lead is one cause of neural tube defects, especially anencephaly. This could link the known preventive actions of hard water and folic acid. Calcium is a toxicological antagonist of lead. One cause of a deficiency of folic acid is impaired absorption secondary to zinc deficiency, which may be produced or exacerbated by lead.

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OBJECTIVE: To analyse the prevalence of Down's syndrome in a specific, geographical area and seek to explain variations with particular reference to ionising radiation. DESIGN: Cases were ascertained by one paediatrician as part of a prospective survey of major congenital malformations in children born to residents of an area of Lancashire between 1957 and 1991. Temporal changes in prevalence rates were detected by a grid search technique using Poisson log linear models. These models were also used to determine the association between prevalence and ionising radiation from atomic fall out. SETTING: The Fylde district of Lancashire in the north west of England. PATIENTS: There were 167 cases, including five stillbirths and eight terminations, among 124,015 total births in a population which increased from about 250,000 to over 300,000 during the study period. MAIN RESULTS: There was significant increase in the prevalence of all cases conceived in 1963 and 1964, and a lesser peak in 1958 which did not quite reach statistical significance. There was no evidence that the increased prevalence in 1963-64 was a result of changes in the maternal age distribution in the population. Babies of mothers aged 35 years and over accounted for more of the variation, especially in 1958 when their increase was significant. There was a highly significant association between prevalence and radiation from fallout produced by atmospheric testing of atomic weapons. The 1963-64 peak coincided with the maximum estimated radiation dose. The lesser peak in 1958 also coincided with increased exposure to radiation from fallout, possibly enhanced by ground deposits after a fire at the Windscale reactor in October 1957. CONCLUSION: This study provides further support for low dose ionising radiation as one aetiological factor in Down's syndrome.

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Between July 7 and 18, 1991, five boys from a small town in rural Illinois experienced the onset of an acute febrile illness subsequently confirmed as leptospirosis by serologic tests. A cohort study found that swimming in a small swimming hole, Steel Tunnel Pond, was associated with disease (P < 0.01), the attack rate being 28%. Leptospira interrogans serovar grippotyphosa was isolated from urine cultures from two of the case patients and from a culture of Steel Tunnel Pond water. A high seroprevalence for grippotyphosa was found in animals near the pond. Drought conditions had been present in the month before the outbreak, creating an environment in the pond which probably facilitated transmission of the organism from area animals to humans. Although leptospirosis is infrequently reported in humans in the United States, it is endemic in animals and the potential for outbreaks exists, especially when environmental conditions are favorable.

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The effects of maternal year of birth and age on the declining prevalence of neural tube defects after 1972-3 were examined using 403 cases ascertained in a prospective study in the Fylde of Lancashire during 1957-89. Matched case-control data were analysed using conditional logistic regression analysis. The risk of an anencephalic baby was significantly greater for older mothers, but changes in the maternal age distribution in the population did not appear to be relevant to the recent decline in prevalence. Antenatal diagnosis and termination of pregnancy was the major cause. Mothers born before 1950 were at significantly greater risk of producing a baby with spina bifida or cranium bifidum. We suggest that abandonment of mercury as a therapeutic agent for infants in the early 1950s is a possible factor in the current decline of these malformations.

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To examine unexplored aspects of the association between AIDS and neoplasia, the Illinois AIDS and Cancer Registries were linked. The method integrated use of a personal computer to find exact matches on names and dates of birth with manual review to assure satisfaction of a match definition. Of the factors examined, white race and homosexuality predicted Kaposi's sarcoma (KS) among people with AIDS (PWAs), and white race predicted non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL). Earlier reports of a declining proportion of PWAs with KS were confirmed. Lymphoma (mixed lymphocytic/histiocytic type), while not currently diagnostic of AIDS, occurred more frequently among PWAs than in the Illinois population. For the first time, rates of cancers other than KS and NHL were demonstrated to be significantly increased among PWAs compared with general populations. In the light of these findings, reconsideration of current neoplastic definitions may be useful.

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An outbreak of skin infection caused by a beta-lactamase-negative strain of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) occurred during a five-week period in a newborn nursery. Twelve babies, two mothers and two members of staff were involved. One baby had a diagnosis of staphylococcal scalded skin syndrome and two others required treatment with antibiotics. The infecting strain produced exfoliative toxin A. It was thought that it had been introduced from a different maternity unit by a nasal carrier. Laboratory investigations tended to support this hypothesis.

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The seasonal prevalence of major congenital malformations was studied in a prospective survey of 88,449 children born in the circumscribed Fylde of Lancashire to residents there over 25 years. Ascertainment was thought to be as complete as was practically possible because cases were recorded daily by one, and for 17 years the only, paediatrician and a very high rate of necropsies was maintained. The number of malformations were classified by month of maternal last menstrual period and seasonal variation was assessed by three statistical models. Neural tube defects showed a significant seasonal variation in month of last menstrual period but not in month of birth. From May 1956 to April 1968, when the prevalence of neural tube defects was high (5.5 per 1000 total births), conceptions were significantly more common in December to May. For anencephaly alone the figures were not significant, but spina bifida and cranium bifidum were more common in March to May. From May 1968 to April 1981, when the prevalence of neural tube defects fell below the national average, the significant variations disappeared. Seasonality for spina bifida and cranium bifidum was seen only in "singles" (cases with no other major lesion), but for anencephaly it was seen only in "multiples" (cases with other lesions). The three types of cardiac septal defect and persistent ductus each showed a higher prevalence of conceptions at some time during May to October. In contrast the commonest group of cyanotic cases showed no such pattern but with greater numbers in winter. There was evidence of a seasonal variation for bilateral renal agenesis and for vesicoureteric reflux as ascertained. Seasonal prevalence in an aetiological factor for certain malformations of the central nervous system, cardiac and urinary systems.

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This paper demonstrates how a health authority can use personnel records of nurses' working histories as an effective tool in manpower planning. Suggestions are given as to how these histories might be analysed and interpreted. Methods described range from the use of simple summary statistics and graphical methods to advanced statistical modelling techniques. Data from a study by researchers at the Centre for Applied Statistics and Department of Sociology at Lancaster University are used to give examples of these approaches. A description is also given of the practical difficulties experienced when attempting to extract the appropriate data from the health authority's personnel records.

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Public expenditure on goods and services per head of population on the National Health Service (NHS) in the United Kingdom has risen less rapidly than some other forms of public expenditure such as education. Revenue expenditure at 1970 market prices on goods and services in the NHS per head of population rose by 38% during the period 1951 to 1968. During the same time interval, expenditure at 1970 market prices on goods and services in education per head of population rose by 84%. Health, as measured by standardised mortality ratios (SMRs), improved over a similar period. This paper argues that, in the long term, the priority given to education expenditure may not necessarily be detrimental to further improvements in community health.

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In 1976, many resources of state and local agencies were devoted to planning, organizing, implementing and evaluating the influenza immunization program. The costs included salaries and other expenses of specifically employed personnel; diversion of the time of others from their usual responsibilities; and donated resources. They were assessed retrospectively and reported by responsible local agency personnel on a questionnaire. Costs of donated services and other resources were estimated based on assigned unit value. The total cost of the program in Illinois was $3.334 per dose of which $1.733 was accounted for by local agencies, $0.075 by the state agency, and $1.526 by the federal government, including the cost of vaccine doses remaining unused. If the program could have been carried through to include the intended larger numbers of persons, both the administrative costs and the vaccine costs per dose administered would have been much less. The financial cost of the campaign exceeded the federal grant. It must be weighed against the administrative benefits including improved ability to conduct large scale preventive programs and awareness of the importance of both risks of benefits of immunization.

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