RESUMEN
Background: Assault weapon and large-capacity magazine bans are potential tools for policy makers to prevent public mass shootings. However, the efficacy of these bans is a continual source of debate. In an earlier study, we estimated the impact of the Federal Assault Weapons Ban (FAWB) on the number of public mass shooting events in the United States. This study provides an updated assessment with 3 additional years of firearm surveillance data to characterize the longer-term effects. Objective: This study aims to estimate the impact of the FAWB on trends in public mass shootings from 1966 to 2022. Methods: We used linear regression to estimate the impact of the FAWB on the 4-year simple moving average of annual public mass shootings, defined by events with 4 or more deaths in 24 hours, not including the perpetrator. The study period spans 1966 to 2022. The model includes indicator variables for both the FAWB period (1995-2004) and the period after its removal (2005-2022). These indicators were interacted with a linear time trend. Estimates were controlled for the national homicide rate. After estimation, the model provided counterfactual estimates of public mass shootings if the FAWB was never imposed and if the FAWB remained in place. Results: The overall upward trajectory in the number of public mass shootings substantially fell while the FAWB was in place. These trends are specific to events in which the perpetrator used an assault weapon or large-capacity magazine. Point estimates suggest the FAWB prevented up to 5 public mass shootings while the ban was active. A continuation of the FAWB and large-capacity magazine ban would have prevented up to 38 public mass shootings, but the CIs become wider as time moves further away from the period of the FAWB. Conclusions: The FAWB, which included a ban on large-capacity magazines, was associated with fewer public mass shooting events, fatalities, and nonfatal gun injuries. Gun control legislation is an important public health tool in the prevention of public mass shootings.
Asunto(s)
Armas de Fuego , Incidentes con Víctimas en Masa , Humanos , Estados Unidos/epidemiología , Armas de Fuego/legislación & jurisprudencia , Armas de Fuego/estadística & datos numéricos , Incidentes con Víctimas en Masa/estadística & datos numéricos , Heridas por Arma de Fuego/epidemiología , Heridas por Arma de Fuego/prevención & control , Armas/estadística & datos numéricos , Armas/legislación & jurisprudencia , Violencia/estadística & datos numéricos , Violencia/tendencias , Violencia/prevención & control , Violencia/legislación & jurisprudencia , Homicidio/estadística & datos numéricos , Homicidio/tendencias , Eventos de Tiroteos MasivosRESUMEN
OBJECTIVE: In this study, we analyzed the relationship between state firearm laws and the incidence and severity (i.e., number of victims) of mass public shootings in the United States during the period 1976-2018. HYPOTHESES: We hypothesized that states requiring permits to purchase firearms would have a lower incidence of mass public shootings than states not requiring permits. We also hypothesized that states banning large-capacity ammunition magazines would experience a lower number of victims in mass public shootings that did occur than states without bans. METHOD: We developed a panel of annual, state-specific data on firearm laws and mass public shooting events and victim counts. We used a generalized estimating equations logistic regression to examine the relationship between eight state firearm laws and the likelihood of a mass public shooting. We then used a zero-inflated negative binomial model to assess the relationship between these laws and the number of fatalities and nonfatal injuries in these incidents. RESULTS: State laws requiring a permit to purchase a firearm were associated with 60% lower odds of a mass public shooting occurring (95% confidence interval [CI: -32%, -76%]). Large-capacity magazine bans were associated with 38% fewer fatalities (95% CI [-12%, -57%]) and 77% fewer nonfatal injuries (95% CI [-43%, -91%]) when a mass shooting occurred. CONCLUSION: Laws requiring permits to purchase a gun are associated with a lower incidence of mass public shootings, and bans on large capacity magazines are associated with fewer fatalities and nonfatal injuries when such events do occur. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2020 APA, all rights reserved).
Asunto(s)
Víctimas de Crimen/estadística & datos numéricos , Armas de Fuego/legislación & jurisprudencia , Violencia con Armas/estadística & datos numéricos , Violencia con Armas/tendencias , Heridas por Arma de Fuego/epidemiología , Humanos , Incidencia , Concesión de Licencias/legislación & jurisprudencia , Estados Unidos/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
Em seus 13 capítulos, divididos em 5 partes, o livro pretende abordar, entre outros pontos, os métodos de descrição e comparação de dados, testes de significância, procedimentos para a obtenção de coeficientes de correlação e uma introdução à análise de regressão. Além disso, possui exemplos ilustrados e exercícios.