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OBJECTIVE: Evidence from low- and middle-income countries regarding the effect of smoking in people with diabetes is lacking. Here, we report the association of smoking with mortality in a large cohort of Mexican adults with diabetes. METHODS: Participants with diabetes mellitus (self-reported diagnosis, use of antidiabetic medications or HbA1c ≥ 6.5%) aged 35-74 years when recruited into the Mexico City Prospective Study were included. Cox regression confounder-adjusted mortality rate ratios (RRs) associated with baseline smoking status were estimated. RESULTS: Among 15,975 women and 8225 men aged 35-74 years with diabetes but no other comorbidities at recruitment, 2498 (16%) women and 2875 (35%) men reported former smoking and 2753 (17%) women, and 3796 (46%) men reported current smoking. During a median of 17 years of follow-up there were 5087 deaths at ages 35-74 years. Compared with never smoking, all-cause mortality RR was 1.08 (95%CI 1.01-1.17) for former smoking, 1.11 (95%CI 1.03-1.20) for current smoking, 1.09 (95%CI 0.99-1.20) for non-daily smoking, 1.06 (95%CI 0.96-1.16) for smoking < 10 cigarettes/day (median during follow-up 4 cigarettes/day), and 1.28 (95% CI 1.14-1.43) for smoking ≥ 10 cigarettes/day (median during follow-up 15 cigarettes/day). Mortality risk among daily smokers was greatest for COPD, lung cancer, cardiovascular diseases, and acute diabetic complications. CONCLUSION: In this cohort of Mexican adults with diabetes, low-intensity daily smoking was associated with increased mortality, despite observing smoking patterns which are different from other populations, and over 5% of total deaths were associated with smoking.
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Causas de Muerte , Diabetes Mellitus , Fumar , Humanos , Persona de Mediana Edad , Masculino , Femenino , México/epidemiología , Adulto , Estudios Prospectivos , Anciano , Fumar/epidemiología , Diabetes Mellitus/mortalidad , Diabetes Mellitus/epidemiología , Factores de RiesgoRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Prediabetes has been associated with increased all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. However, no large-scale studies have been conducted in Mexico or Latin America examining these associations. METHODS: We analyzed data from 115,919 adults without diabetes (diagnosed or undiagnosed) aged 35-84 years who participated in the Mexico City Prospective Study between 1998 and 2004. Participants were followed until January 1st, 2021 for cause-specific mortality. We defined prediabetes according to the American Diabetes Association (ADA, HbA1c 5.7% to 6.4%) and the International Expert Committee (IEC, HbA1c 6.0-6.4%) definitions. Cox regression adjusted for confounders was used to estimate all-cause and cause-specific mortality rate ratios (RR) at ages 35-74 years associated with prediabetes. FINDINGS: During 2,085,392 person-years of follow-up (median in survivors 19 years), there were 6,810 deaths at ages 35-74, including 1,742 from cardiovascular disease, 892 from renal disease and 108 from acute diabetic crises. Of 110,405 participants aged 35-74 years at recruitment, 28,852 (26%) had ADA-defined prediabetes and 7,203 (7%) had IEC-defined prediabetes. Compared with those without prediabetes, individuals with prediabetes had higher risk of all-cause mortality at ages 35-74 years (RR 1.13, 95% CI 1.07-1.19 for ADA-defined prediabetes and RR 1.28, 1.18-1.39 for IEC-defined prediabetes), as well as increased risk of cardiovascular mortality (RR 1.22 [1.10-1.35] and 1.42 [1.22-1.65], respectively), renal mortality (RR 1.35 [1.08-1.68] and 1.69 [1.24-2.31], respectively), and death from an acute diabetic crisis (RR 2.63 [1.76-3.94] and 3.43 [2.09-5.62], respectively). RRs were larger at younger than at older ages, and similar for men compared to women. The absolute excess risk associated with ADA and IEC-defined prediabetes at ages 35-74 accounted for6% and 3% of cardiovascular deaths respectively, 10% and 5% of renal deaths respectively, and 31% and 14% of acute diabetic deaths respectively. INTERPRETATION: Prediabetes is a significant risk factor for all-cause, cardiovascular, renal, and acute diabetic deaths in Mexican adults. Identification and timely management of individuals with prediabetes for targeted risk reduction could contribute to reducing premature mortality from cardiometabolic causes in this population. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust, the Mexican Health Ministry, the National Council of Science and Technology for Mexico, Cancer Research UK, British Heart Foundation, UK Medical Research Council. Instituto Nacional de Geriatría (Mexico City).
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BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Remnant cholesterol (RC) and insulin resistance (IR) have been independently associated with cardiovascular risk. Here, we evaluated the role of IR and RC on cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality. METHODS: We conducted an analysis of 16,113 individuals ≥20 years without diabetes from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES-III/IV). RC levels were calculated using total cholesterol, non-HDL-c, and LDL-c; IR was defined as HOMA2-IR≥2.5 and CVD mortality as a composite of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular mortality. Multiple linear regression was used to assess the relationship between HOMA2-IR and RC and Cox regression models to assess their joint role in CVD mortality. Causally ordered mediation models were used to explore the mediating role of IR in RC-associated CVD mortality. RESULTS: We identified an association between higher HOMA2-IR and higher RC levels. The effect of IR on CVD mortality was predominant (HR 1.32, 95%CI 1.18-1.48) and decreased at older ages (HR 0.934, 95%CI 0.918-0.959) compared to RC (HR 0.983, 95%CI 0.952-1.014). Higher risk of CVD mortality was observed in individuals with IR but normal RC (HR 1.37, 95%CI 1.25-1.50) and subjects with IR and high RC (HR 1.24, 95%CI 1.13-1.37), but not in subjects without IR but high RC. In mediation models, HOMA2-IR accounted for 78.2% (95%CI 28.11-98.89) of the effect of RC levels on CVD mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that RC potentiates the risk of CVD mortality through its effect on whole-body insulin sensitivity, particularly among younger individuals.
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Enfermedades Cardiovasculares , Colesterol , Resistencia a la Insulina , Encuestas Nutricionales , Humanos , Masculino , Enfermedades Cardiovasculares/mortalidad , Enfermedades Cardiovasculares/sangre , Femenino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Adulto , Colesterol/sangre , Estados Unidos/epidemiología , Medición de Riesgo , Biomarcadores/sangre , Anciano , Factores de Riesgo de Enfermedad Cardiaca , Factores de RiesgoRESUMEN
Background: Differences in the prevalence of four diabetes subgroups have been reported in Mexico compared to other populations, but factors that may contribute to these differences are poorly understood. Here, we estimate the prevalence of diabetes subgroups in Mexico and evaluate their correlates with indicators of social disadvantage using data from national representative surveys. Methods: We analyzed serial, cross-sectional Mexican National Health and Nutrition Surveys spanning 2016, 2018, 2020, 2021, and 2022, including 23,354 adults (>20 years). Diabetes subgroups (obesity-related [MOD], severe insulin-deficient [SIDD], severe insulin-resistant [SIRD], and age-related [MARD]) were classified using self-normalizing neural networks based on a previously validated algorithm. We used the density-independent social lag index (DISLI) as a proxy of state-level social disadvantage. Findings: We identified 4204 adults (median age: 57, IQR: 47-66, women: 64%) living with diabetes, yielding a pooled prevalence of 16.04% [95% CI: 14.92-17.17]. When stratified by diabetes subgroup, prevalence was 6.62% (5.69-7.55) for SIDD, 5.25% (4.52-5.97) for MOD, 2.39% (1.95-2.83) for MARD, and 1.27% (1.00-1.54) for SIRD. SIDD and MOD clustered in Southern Mexico, whereas MARD and SIRD clustered in Northern Mexico and Mexico City. Each standard deviation increase in DISLI was associated with higher odds of SIDD (OR: 1.12, 95% CI: 1.06-1.12) and lower odds of MOD (OR: 0.93, 0.88-0.99). Speaking an indigenous language was associated with higher odds of SIDD (OR: 1.35, 1.16-1.57) and lower odds of MARD (OR 0.58, 0.45-0.74). Interpretation: Diabetes prevalence in Mexico is rising in the context of regional and sociodemographic inequalities across distinct diabetes subgroups. SIDD is a subgroup of concern that may be associated with inadequate diabetes management, mainly in marginalized states. Funding: This research was supported by Instituto Nacional de Geriatría in Mexico.
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Background: Post-acute sequelae after SARS-CoV-2 infection (PASC) remains a concerning long-term complication of COVID-19. Here, we aimed to characterize the epidemiology of PASC in Mexico during 2022 and identify potential associations of covariates with PASC prevalence using nationally representative data. Methods: We analyzed data from the 2022 Mexican National Health and Nutrition Survey (ENSANUT) from 24,434 participants, representing 85,521,661 adults ≥20 years. PASC was defined using both the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) definition and a PASC score ≥12. Estimates of PASC prevalence were stratified by age, sex, rural vs. urban setting, social lag quartiles, number of reinfections, vaccination status and periods of predominance of SARS-CoV-2 circulating variants. Determinants of PASC were assessed using log-binomial regression models adjusted by survey weights. Findings: Persistent symptoms after SARS-CoV-2 infection were reported by 12.44% (95% CI 11.89-12.99) of adults ≥20 years in Mexico in 2022. The most common persistent symptoms were fatigue, musculoskeletal pain, headache, cough, loss of smell or taste, fever, post-exertional malaise, brain fog, anxiety, and chest pain. PASC was present in 21.21% (95% CI 19.74-22.68) of subjects with previously diagnosed COVID-19. Over 28.6% of patients with PASC reported symptoms persistence ≥6 months and 14.05% reported incapacitating symptoms. Higher PASC prevalence was associated with SARS-CoV-2 reinfections, depressive symptoms and living in states with high social lag. PASC prevalence, particularly its more severe forms, decreased with COVID-19 vaccination and for infections during periods of Omicron variant predominance. Interpretation: PASC remains a significant public health burden in Mexico as the COVID-19 pandemic transitions into endemic. Promoting SARS-CoV-2 reinfection prevention and booster vaccination may be useful in reducing PASC burden. Funding: This research was supported by Instituto Nacional de Geriatría in Mexico.
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Background: Characterizing prediabetes phenotypes may be useful in guiding diabetes prevention efforts; however, heterogeneous criteria to define prediabetes have led to inconsistent prevalence estimates, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. Here, we estimated trends in prediabetes prevalence in Mexico across different prediabetes definitions and their association with prevalent cardiometabolic conditions. Methods: We conducted a serial cross-sectional analysis of National Health and Nutrition Surveys in Mexico (2016-2022), totalling 22 081 Mexican adults. After excluding individuals with diagnosed or undiagnosed diabetes, we defined prediabetes using ADA (impaired fasting glucose [IFG] 100-125 mg/dL and/or HbA1c 5.7-6.4%), WHO (IFG 110-125 mg/dL), and IEC criteria (HbA1c 6.0-6.4%). Prevalence trends of prediabetes over time were evaluated using weighted Poisson regression and its association with prevalent cardiometabolic conditions with weighted logistic regression. Findings: The prevalence of prediabetes (either IFG or high HbA1c [ADA]) in Mexico was 20.9% in 2022. Despite an overall downward trend in prediabetes (RR 0.973, 95% CI 0.957-0.988), this was primarily driven by decreases in prediabetes by ADA-IFG (RR 0.898, 95% CI 0.880-0.917) and WHO-IFG criteria (RR 0.919, 95% CI 0.886-0.953), while prediabetes by ADA-HbA1c (RR 1.055, 95% CI 1.033-1.077) and IEC-HbA1C criteria (RR 1.085, 95% CI 1.045-1.126) increased over time. Prediabetes prevalence increased over time in adults >40 years, with central obesity, self-identified as indigenous or living in urban areas. For all definitions, prediabetes was associated with an increased risk of cardiometabolic conditions. Interpretation: Prediabetes rates in Mexico from 2016 to 2022 varied based on defining criteria but consistently increased for HbA1c-based definitions and high-risk subgroups. Funding: This research was supported by Instituto Nacional de Geriatría in Mexico. JAS was supported by NIH/NIDDK Grant# K23DK135798.
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OBJECTIVES: Vaccination has been effective in ameliorating the impact of COVID-19. Here, we report vaccine effectiveness (VE) of the nationally available COVID-19 vaccines in Mexico. METHODS: Retrospective analysis of a COVID-19 surveillance system to assess the VE of the BNT162b2, messenger RNA (mRNA)-12732, Gam-COVID-Vac, Ad5-nCoV, Ad26.COV2.S, ChAdOx1, and CoronaVac vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 infection, COVID-19 hospitalization, and death in Mexico. The VE was estimated using time-varying Cox proportional hazard models in vaccinated and unvaccinated adults, adjusted for age, sex, and comorbidities. VE was also estimated for adults with diabetes, aged ≥60 years, and comparing the predominance of SARS-CoV-2 variants B.1.1.519 and B.1.617.2. RESULTS: We assessed 793,487 vaccinated and 4,792,338 unvaccinated adults between December 24, 2020 and September 27, 2021. The VE against SARS-CoV-2 infection was the highest for fully vaccinated individuals with mRNA-12732 (91.5%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 90.3-92.4) and Ad26.COV2.S (82.2%, 95% CI 81.4-82.9); for COVID-19 hospitalization, BNT162b2 (84.3%, 95% CI 83.6-84.9) and Gam-COVID-Vac (81.4% 95% CI 79.5-83.1), and for mortality, BNT162b2 (89.8%, 95% CI 89.2-90.2) and mRNA-12732 (93.5%, 95% CI 86.0-97.0). The VE decreased for all vaccines in adults aged ≥60 years, people with diabetes, and periods of Delta variant predominance. CONCLUSION: All the vaccines implemented in Mexico were effective against SARS-CoV-2 infection, COVID-19 hospitalization, and death. Mass vaccination with multiple vaccines is useful to maximize vaccination coverage.
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COVID-19 , Adulto , Humanos , COVID-19/epidemiología , COVID-19/prevención & control , Vacunas contra la COVID-19 , Vacuna BNT162 , Ad26COVS1 , México/epidemiología , Estudios Retrospectivos , SARS-CoV-2 , Vacunación , Hospitalización , ARN MensajeroRESUMEN
Aging is believed to occur across multiple domains, one of which is body composition; however, attempts to integrate it into biological age (BA) have been limited. Here, we consider the sex-dependent role of anthropometry for the prediction of 10-year all-cause mortality using data from 18,794 NHANES participants to generate and validate a new BA metric. Our data-driven approach pointed to sex-specific contributors for BA estimation: WHtR, arm and thigh circumferences for men; weight, WHtR, thigh circumference, subscapular and triceps skinfolds for women. We used these measurements to generate AnthropoAge, which predicted all-cause mortality (AUROC 0.876, 95%CI 0.864-0.887) and cause-specific mortality independently of ethnicity, sex, and comorbidities; AnthropoAge was a better predictor than PhenoAge for cerebrovascular, Alzheimer, and COPD mortality. A metric of age acceleration was also derived and used to assess sexual dimorphisms linked to accelerated aging, where women had an increase in overall body mass plus an important subcutaneous to visceral fat redistribution, and men displayed a marked decrease in fat and muscle mass. Finally, we showed that consideration of multiple BA metrics may identify unique aging trajectories with increased mortality (HR for multidomain acceleration 2.43, 95%CI 2.25-2.62) and comorbidity profiles. A simplified version of AnthropoAge (S-AnthropoAge) was generated using only BMI and WHtR, all results were preserved using this metric. In conclusion, AnthropoAge is a useful proxy of BA that captures cause-specific mortality and sex dimorphisms in body composition, and it could be used for future multidomain assessments of aging to better characterize the heterogeneity of this phenomenon.
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Envejecimiento , Composición Corporal , Masculino , Humanos , Femenino , Encuestas Nutricionales , Composición Corporal/fisiología , Antropometría , Comorbilidad , Índice de Masa Corporal , Tejido Adiposo/metabolismoRESUMEN
OBJECTIVE: To estimate diabetes-related mortality in Mexico in 2020 compared with 2017-2019 after the onset of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: This retrospective, state-level study used national death registries of Mexican adults aged ≥20 years for the 2017-2020 period. Diabetes-related death was defined using ICD-10 codes listing diabetes as the primary cause of death, excluding certificates with COVID-19 as the primary cause of death. Spatial and negative binomial regression models were used to characterize the geographic distribution and sociodemographic and epidemiologic correlates of diabetes-related excess mortality, estimated as increases in diabetes-related mortality in 2020 compared with average 2017-2019 rates. RESULTS: We identified 148,437 diabetes-related deaths in 2020 (177 per 100,000 inhabitants) vs. an average of 101,496 deaths in 2017-2019 (125 per 100,000 inhabitants). In-hospital diabetes-related deaths decreased by 17.8% in 2020 versus 2017-2019, whereas out-of-hospital deaths increased by 89.4%. Most deaths were attributable to type 2 diabetes (130 per 100,000 inhabitants). Compared with 2018-2019 data, hyperglycemic hyperosmolar state and diabetic ketoacidosis were the two contributing causes with the highest increase in mortality (128% and 116% increase, respectively). Diabetes-related excess mortality clustered in southern Mexico and was highest in states with higher social lag, rates of COVID-19 hospitalization, and prevalence of HbA1c ≥7.5%. CONCLUSIONS: Diabetes-related deaths increased among Mexican adults by 41.6% in 2020 after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, occurred disproportionately outside the hospital, and were largely attributable to type 2 diabetes and hyperglycemic emergencies. Disruptions in diabetes care and strained hospital capacity may have contributed to diabetes-related excess mortality in Mexico during 2020.
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COVID-19 , Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2 , Adulto , Humanos , Pandemias , Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2/epidemiología , Estudios Retrospectivos , México/epidemiología , Sistema de Registros , Causas de Muerte , MortalidadRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: In 2020, Mexico experienced one of the highest rates of excess mortality globally. However, the extent of non-COVID deaths on excess mortality, its regional distribution and the association between socio-demographic inequalities have not been characterized. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective municipal and individual-level study using 1â069â174 death certificates to analyse COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 deaths classified by ICD-10 codes. Excess mortality was estimated as the increase in cause-specific mortality in 2020 compared with the average of 2015-2019, disaggregated by primary cause of death, death setting (in-hospital and out-of-hospital) and geographical location. Correlates of individual and municipal non-COVID-19 mortality were assessed using mixed effects logistic regression and negative binomial regression models, respectively. RESULTS: We identified a 51% higher mortality rate (276.11 deaths per 100â000 inhabitants) compared with the 2015-2019 average period, largely attributable to COVID-19. Non-COVID-19 causes comprised one-fifth of excess deaths, with acute myocardial infarction and type 2 diabetes as the two leading non-COVID-19 causes of excess mortality. COVID-19 deaths occurred primarily in-hospital, whereas excess non-COVID-19 deaths occurred in out-of-hospital settings. Municipal-level predictors of non-COVID-19 excess mortality included levels of social security coverage, higher rates of COVID-19 hospitalization and social marginalization. At the individual level, lower educational attainment, blue-collar employment and lack of medical care assistance prior to death were associated with non-COVID-19 deaths. CONCLUSION: Non-COVID-19 causes of death, largely chronic cardiometabolic conditions, comprised up to one-fifth of excess deaths in Mexico during 2020. Non-COVID-19 excess deaths occurred disproportionately out-of-hospital and were associated with both individual- and municipal-level socio-demographic inequalities.
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COVID-19 , Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2 , Humanos , Pandemias , Certificado de Defunción , Causas de Muerte , Estudios Retrospectivos , México/epidemiología , MortalidadRESUMEN
OBJECTIVE: Serum uric acid (SUA) has been associated with cardiometabolic conditions such as insulin resistance (IR) and visceral adipose tissue (VAT) accumulation. Here, we aimed to clarify a unifying mechanism linking elevated SUA to IR and VAT. METHODS: We conducted analyses in 226 subjects from the UIEM cohort with both euglycemic hyperinsulinemic clamp (EHC) and dual X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) measurements for IR and VAT accumulation and explored the role of SUA and adiponectin by developing a network of causal mediation analyses to assess their impact on IR and VAT. These models were then translated to two population-based cohorts comprising 6337 subjects from NHANES 2003-2004 and 2011-2012 cycles in the US and ENSANUT Medio Camino 2016 in Mexico, using HOMA2IR and adipoIR as indicators of peripheral and adipose tissue IR, and METS-VF as a surrogate for VAT accumulation. RESULTS: SUA has a mediating role inside a bidirectional relationship between IR and visceral obesity, which was similar using either gold standard measurements or surrogate measures for IR and VAT. Furthermore, adiponectin acts as a linking mediator between elevated SUA and both peripheral IR and VAT accumulation. The proportion of the mechanism for IR-mediated (in either peripheral or adipose tissue) VAT accumulation was greater, compared to VAT-mediated IR accumulation (10.53% [9.23%-12.00%] to 5.44% [3.78%-7.00%]). Normal-range SUA levels can be used to rule-out underlying cardio-metabolic abnormalities in both men and women. CONCLUSIONS: Elevated SUA acts as a mediator inside the bidirectional relationship between IR and VAT accumulation and these observations could be applicable at a phenotype scale.
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Resistencia a la Insulina , Ácido Úrico , Tejido Adiposo , Femenino , Técnica de Clampeo de la Glucosa , Humanos , Grasa Intraabdominal , Encuestas NutricionalesRESUMEN
CONTEXT: Data-driven diabetes subgroups were proposed as an alternative to address diabetes heterogeneity. However, changes in trends for these subgroups have not been reported. OBJECTIVE: Here, we analyzed trends of diabetes subgroups, stratified by sex, race, education level, age categories, and time since diabetes diagnosis in the United States. METHODS: We used data from consecutive NHANES cycles spanning the 1988-2018 period. Diabetes subgroups (mild obesity-related [MOD], severe insulin-deficient [SIDD], severe insulin-resistant [SIRD], and mild age-related diabetes [MARD]) were classified using validated self-normalizing neural networks. Severe autoimmune diabetes (SAID) was assessed for NHANES-III. Prevalence was estimated using examination sample weights considering bicyclic changes (BCs) to evaluate trends and changes over time. RESULTS: Diabetes prevalence in the United States increased from 7.5% (95% CI 7.1-7.9) in 1988-1989 to 13.9% (95% CI 13.4-14.4) in 2016-2018 (BC 1.09%, 95% CI 0.98-1.31, P < .001). Non-Hispanic Black people had the highest prevalence. Overall, MOD, MARD, and SIDD had an increase during the studied period. Particularly, non-Hispanic Black people had sharp increases in MARD and SIDD, Mexican Americans in SIDD, and non-Hispanic White people in MARD. Males, subjects with secondary/high school, and adults aged 40-64 years had the highest increase in MOD prevalence. Trends in diabetes subgroups sustained after stratifying time since diabetes diagnosis. CONCLUSION: Prevalence of diabetes and its subgroups in the United States has increased from 1988 to 2018. These trends were different across sex, ethnicities, education, and age categories, indicating significant heterogeneity in diabetes within the US obesity burden, population aging, socioeconomic disparities, and lifestyle aspects could be implicated in the increasing trends of diabetes in the United States.
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Diabetes Mellitus/epidemiología , Encuestas Nutricionales/tendencias , Adulto , Edad de Inicio , Anciano , Diabetes Mellitus/diagnóstico , Femenino , Humanos , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Encuestas Nutricionales/estadística & datos numéricos , Prevalencia , Índice de Severidad de la Enfermedad , Estados Unidos/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: The impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in Mexico City has been sharp, as several social inequalities at all levels coexist. Here we conducted an in-depth evaluation of the impact of individual and municipal-level social inequalities on the COVID-19 pandemic in Mexico City. METHODS: We analyzed suspected severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) cases, from the Mexico City Epidemiological Surveillance System from 24 February 2020 to 31 March 2021. COVID-19 outcomes included rates of hospitalization, severe COVID-19, invasive mechanical ventilation, and mortality. We evaluated socioeconomic occupation as an individual risk, and social lag, which captures municipal-level social vulnerability, and urban population density as proxies of structural risk factors. Impact of reductions in vehicular mobility on COVID-19 rates and the influence of risk factors were also assessed. Finally, we assessed discrepancies in COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 excess mortality using death certificates from the general civil registry. RESULTS: We detected vulnerable groups who belonged to economically unfavored sectors and experienced increased risk of COVID-19 outcomes. Cases living in marginalized municipalities with high population density experienced greater risk for COVID-19 outcomes. Additionally, policies to reduce vehicular mobility had differential impacts modified by social lag and urban population density. Finally, we report an under-registry of COVID-19 deaths along with an excess mortality closely related to marginalized and densely populated communities in an ambulatory setting. This could be attributable to a negative impact of modified hospital admission criteria during the pandemic. CONCLUSIONS: Socioeconomic occupation and municipality-wide factors played a significant role in shaping the course of the COVID-19 pandemic in Mexico City.
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COVID-19 , COVID-19/epidemiología , Ciudades/epidemiología , Humanos , México/epidemiología , Pandemias , SARS-CoV-2RESUMEN
BACKGROUND: SARS-CoV-2 testing capacity is important to monitor epidemic dynamics and as a mitigation strategy. Given difficulties of large-scale quantitative reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR) implementation, rapid antigen tests (Rapid Ag-T) have been proposed as alternatives in settings like Mexico. Here, we evaluated diagnostic performance of Rapid Ag-T for SARS-CoV-2 infection and its associated clinical implications compared to qRT-PCR testing in Mexico. METHODS: We analyzed data from the COVID-19 registry of the Mexican General Directorate of Epidemiology up to April 30th, 2021 (n = 6,632,938) and cases with both qRT-PCR and Rapid Ag-T (n = 216,388). We evaluated diagnostic performance using accuracy measures and assessed time-dependent changes in the Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (AUROC). We also explored test discordances as predictors of hospitalization, intubation, severe COVID-19 and mortality. RESULTS: Rapid Ag-T is primarily used in Mexico City. Rapid Ag-T have low sensitivity 37.6% (95%CI 36.6-38.7), high specificity 95.5% (95%CI 95.1-95.8) and acceptable positive 86.1% (95%CI 85.0-86.6) and negative predictive values 67.2% (95%CI 66.2-69.2). Rapid Ag-T has optimal diagnostic performance up to days 3 after symptom onset, and its performance is modified by testing location, comorbidity, and age. qRT-PCR (-) / Rapid Ag-T (+) cases had higher risk of adverse COVID-19 outcomes (HR 1.54 95% CI 1.41-1.68) and were older, qRT-PCR (+)/ Rapid Ag-T(-) cases had slightly higher risk or adverse outcomes and ≥7 days from symptom onset (HR 1.53 95% CI 1.48-1.59). Cases detected with rapid Ag-T were younger, without comorbidities, and milder COVID-19 course. CONCLUSIONS: Rapid Ag-T could be used as an alternative to qRT-PCR for large scale SARS-CoV-2 testing in Mexico. Interpretation of Rapid Ag-T results should be done with caution to minimize the risk associated with false negative results.