RESUMEN
INTRODUCTION: the physiological & Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and Morbidity (POSSUM) was derived from a heterogeneous general population and has been used successfully as an audit tool to provide risk-adjusted operative mortality rate. The aim of this study was to investigate whether risk-adjusted scoring systems can accurately predict outcomes of colorectal operations done by colorectal and non-colorectal surgeons. METHOD: the study was conducted prospectively on 899 consecutive patients who underwent major elective and emergency colorectal procedures over three years between 2002 and 2004 at University Hospital Coventry and Warwickshire. The outcome parameter was defined as 30-day mortality. The observed mortality was then compared to POSSUM-predicted mortality. Hosmer-Lemeshow and Fisher's Exact test were used to assess statistical significance in outcome between non- and coloproctologists. RESULTS: CR-POSSUM was the most accurate predictive model for outcomes of major colorectal operations between surgeons. The overall mortality rate amongst coloproctologists was 7% (5% elective & 13% emergency), whereas the overall mortality was 17% (3% elective & 21% emergency) in non-coloproctologists. CONCLUSION: CR-POSSUM was the better prediction model than POSSUM. Coloproctologists delivered a significantly lower overall mortality, but not in the emergency setting. However, given the few number of elective colorectal resections performed by non-coloproctologists, more cases are required to permit meaningful comparison for the outcomes of major colorectal operations among different surgeons.
Asunto(s)
Cirugía Colorrectal/mortalidad , Adulto , Anciano , Anciano de 80 o más Años , Femenino , Humanos , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Ajuste de Riesgo , Resultado del Tratamiento , Reino Unido/epidemiología , Adulto JovenRESUMEN
INTRODUCTION: POSSUM and its variants Portsmouth POSSUM (P-POSSUM) and Colorectal POSSUM (CR-POSSUM) equations were derived from a heterogeneous general surgical population, which have been used successfully to provide risk-adjusted operative mortality rates. CR-POSSUM utilises fewer parameters, allowing ease of use. The aim of this study was to predict the mortality outcome in colorectal surgery using these scoring systems compared to the observed mortality and to devise a new scoring system with improved accuracy. METHODS: The study was conducted prospectively on all consecutive patients requiring elective and emergency colorectal surgery between April 2002 and May 2005. The outcome parameter was defined as 30-day mortality. The observed mortality was compared with predicted mortality by the scoring systems. Hosmer and Lemeshow test was used to assess statistical accuracy of POSSUM. RESULTS: Eight hundred ninety-nine patients underwent colorectal surgery during the study period. There were 619 elective and 281 emergency patients. Observed 30-day mortality rate was 9%, compared with predicted mortality rate of 13.5% with POSSUM, 5% with P-POSSUM and 9.5% with CR-POSSUM. CONCLUSION: POSSUM's mortality rate was overestimated, while P-POSSUM's mortality rate was underestimated. CR-POSSUM, the simplest system of all three, most accurately predicted mortality in our unit.
Asunto(s)
Cirugía Colorrectal/mortalidad , Complicaciones Posoperatorias/mortalidad , Distribución por Edad , Anciano , Anciano de 80 o más Años , Femenino , Humanos , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Estudios Prospectivos , Factores de RiesgoRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Postoperative morbidity and mortality from colorectal cancer varies widely across hospitals in the UK. We aimed to assess whether a newly developed score from the Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland (ACPGBI) could predict mortality from colorectal cancer surgery as accurately as the Physiology and Operative Severity Score for enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity (POSSUM), Portsmouth POSSUM (P-POSSUM), or the ColoRectal POSSUM (CR-POSSUM). METHODS: We analysed prospectively 618 patients with histologically confirmed colorectal cancer who had surgery to remove primary tumours done by colorectal surgeons or non-colorectal surgeons in a 3-year period. We compared observed mortality with those predicted by the ACPGBI, POSSUM, P-POSSUM, and CR-POSSUM scoring systems using the Hosmer-Lemeshow test and Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. FINDINGS: Between April 1, 2002, and May 31, 2005, 618 consecutive patients with colorectal cancer had surgery to remove primary tumours. Overall observed 30-day mortality over the 3 years was 10.2% (95% CI 8.0-12.9). Overall predicted mortality (mean score) by use of POSSUM was 12.7% (11.7-13.7), by use of P-POSSUM was 4.4% (3.4-5.4), by use of CR-POSSUM was 9.6% (8.6-10.6), and by use of ACPGBI score was 8.1% (7.3-8.8). INTERPRETATION: POSSUM overpredicted mortality, whereas P-POSSUM underpredicted mortality from colorectal-cancer surgery. CR-POSSUM was a more-accurate predictor of mortality in most analyses than was POSSUM and P-POSSUM. Although CR-POSSUM gave the closest prediction of overall mortality, analyses of subgroups of patients showed that ACPGBI score predicted overall mortality most accurately.