RESUMEN
Serology and molecular tests are the two most commonly used methods for rapid COVID-19 infection testing. The two types of tests have different mechanisms to detect infection, by measuring the presence of viral SARS-CoV-2 RNA (molecular test) or detecting the presence of antibodies triggered by the SARS-CoV-2 virus (serology test). A handful of studies have shown that symptoms, combined with demographic and/or diagnosis features, can be helpful for the prediction of COVID-19 test outcomes. However, due to nature of the test, serology and molecular tests vary significantly. There is no existing study on the correlation between serology and molecular tests, and what type of symptoms are the key factors indicating the COVID-19 positive tests. In this study, we propose a machine learning based approach to study serology and molecular tests, and use features to predict test outcomes. A total of 2,467 donors, each tested using one or multiple types of COVID-19 tests, are collected as our testbed. By cross checking test types and results, we study correlation between serology and molecular tests. For test outcome prediction, we label 2,467 donors as positive or negative, by using their serology or molecular test results, and create symptom features to represent each donor for learning. Because COVID-19 produces a wide range of symptoms and the data collection process is essentially error prone, we group similar symptoms into bins. This decreases the feature space and sparsity. Using binned symptoms, combined with demographic features, we train five classification algorithms to predict COVID-19 test results. Experiments show that XGBoost achieves the best performance with 76.85% accuracy and 81.4% AUC scores, demonstrating that symptoms are indeed helpful for predicting COVID-19 test outcomes. Our study investigates the relationship between serology and molecular tests, identifies meaningful symptom features associated with COVID-19 infection, and also provides a way for rapid screening and cost effective detection of COVID-19 infection.
RESUMEN
Clinical trials are crucial for the advancement of treatment and knowledge within the medical community. Although the ClinicalTrials.gov initiative has resulted in a rich source of information for clinical trial research, only a handful of analytic studies have been carried out to understand this valuable data source. Analysis of this database provides insight for emerging trends of clinical research. In this study, we propose to use network analysis to understand infectious disease clinical trial research. Our goal is to understand two important issues related to the clinical trials: (1) the concentrations and characteristics of infectious disease clinical trial research, and (2) recommendation of clinical trials to a sponsor (or an investigator). The first issue helps summarize clinical trial research related to a particular disease(s), and the second issue helps match clinical trial sponsors and investigators for information recommendation. By using 4228 clinical trials as the test bed, our study investigates 4864 sponsors and 1879 research areas characterized by Medical Subject Heading (MeSH) keywords. We use a network to characterize infectious disease clinical trials, and design a new community-topic-based link prediction approach to predict sponsors' interests. Our design relies on network modeling of both clinical trial sponsors and keywords. For sponsors, we extract communities with each community consisting of sponsors with coherent interests. For keywords, we extract topics with each topic containing semantic consistent keywords. The communities and topics are combined for accurate clinical trial recommendation. This transformative study concludes that using network analysis can tremendously help the understanding of clinical trial research for effective summarization, characterization, and prediction.
RESUMEN
As of March 30 2021, over 5,193 COVID-19 clinical trials have been registered through Clinicaltrial.gov. Among them, 191 trials were terminated, suspended, or withdrawn (indicating the cessation of the study). On the other hand, 909 trials have been completed (indicating the completion of the study). In this study, we propose to study underlying factors of COVID-19 trial completion vs. cessation, and design predictive models to accurately predict whether a COVID-19 trial may complete or cease in the future. We collect 4,441 COVID-19 trials from ClinicalTrial.gov to build a testbed, and design four types of features to characterize clinical trial administration, eligibility, study information, criteria, drug types, study keywords, as well as embedding features commonly used in the state-of-the-art machine learning. Our study shows that drug features and study keywords are most informative features, but all four types of features are essential for accurate trial prediction. By using predictive models, our approach achieves more than 0.87 AUC (Area Under the Curve) score and 0.81 balanced accuracy to correctly predict COVID-19 clinical trial completion vs. cessation. Our research shows that computational methods can deliver effective features to understand difference between completed vs. ceased COVID-19 trials. In addition, such models can also predict COVID-19 trial status with satisfactory accuracy, and help stakeholders better plan trials and minimize costs.
Asunto(s)
COVID-19/epidemiología , Ensayos Clínicos como Asunto , Algoritmos , Área Bajo la Curva , COVID-19/virología , Conducta Cooperativa , Industria Farmacéutica , Voluntarios Sanos , Humanos , Redes Neurales de la Computación , Placebos , SARS-CoV-2/fisiología , Estados UnidosRESUMEN
In this study, we propose to use machine learning to understand terminated clinical trials. Our goal is to answer two fundamental questions: (1) what are common factors/markers associated to terminated clinical trials? and (2) how to accurately predict whether a clinical trial may be terminated or not? The answer to the first question provides effective ways to understand characteristics of terminated trials for stakeholders to better plan their trials; and the answer to the second question can direct estimate the chance of success of a clinical trial in order to minimize costs. By using 311,260 trials to build a testbed with 68,999 samples, we use feature engineering to create 640 features, reflecting clinical trial administration, eligibility, study information, criteria etc. Using feature ranking, a handful of features, such as trial eligibility, trial inclusion/exclusion criteria, sponsor types etc., are found to be related to the clinical trial termination. By using sampling and ensemble learning, we achieve over 67% Balanced Accuracy and over 0.73 AUC (Area Under the Curve) scores to correctly predict clinical trial termination, indicating that machine learning can help achieve satisfactory prediction results for clinical trial study.
RESUMEN
A rate-limiting factor in the ontogeny of auditory eyeblink conditioning (EBC) is the development of sensory inputs to the pontine nucleus. One possible way to facilitate the emergence of EBC would be to use a conditioned stimulus (CS) that activates an earlier-developing sensory system. The goal of the current study was to investigate whether using a vibration CS would facilitate the ontogeny of delay EBC relative to an auditory CS. Rat pups received six sessions of delay EBC or unpaired training using either a tone or vibration CS on postnatal day (P)14-15, 17-18, 21-22, or 24-25. Conditioning with a vibration CS resulted in rapid learning as early as P17-18, whereas conditioning with a tone CS did not result in rapid conditioning until after P17-18. Control experiments verified that the differences in EBC were due to CS-specific sensory properties. The results suggest that the ontogeny of EBC depends on sensory system development.