RESUMEN
In this paper, we investigate the stochastic nature of the COVID-19 temporal dynamics by generating a fractional-order dynamic model and a fractional-order-stochastic model. Initially, we considered the first and second vaccination doses as multiple vaccinations were initiated worldwide. The concerned models are then tested for the Saudi Arabia second virus wave, which is assumed to start on 1st March 2021. Four daily vaccination scenarios for the first and second dose are assumed for 100 days from the wave beginning. One of these scenarios is based on function optimization using the invasive weed optimization algorithm (IWO). After that, we numerically solve the established models using the fractional Euler method and the Euler-Murayama method. Finally, the obtained virus dynamics using the assumed scenarios and the real one started by the government are compared. The optimized scenario using the IWO effectively minimizes the predicted cumulative wave infections with a 4.4 % lower number of used vaccination doses.
RESUMEN
In this paper, COVID-19 dynamics are modelled with three mathematical dynamic models, fractional order modified SEIRF model, stochastic modified SEIRF model, and fractional stochastic modified SEIRF model, to characterize and predict virus behavior. By using Euler method and Euler-Murayama method, the numerical solutions for the considered models are obtained. The considered models are applied to the case study of Egypt to forecast COVID-19 behavior for the second virus wave which is assumed to be started on 15 November 2020. Finally, comparisons between actual and predicted daily infections are presented.