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BackgroundCOVID-19 vaccines are highly effective for reducing severe disease and mortality. However, vaccine effectiveness data is limited from sub-Saharan Africa, where SARS-CoV-2 epidemiology has differed from other regions. We report COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness against progression to in-hospital mortality in Zambia. MethodsWe conducted a retrospective cohort study among admitted patients at eight COVID-19 treatment centers across Zambia during April 2021 through March 2022. Patient demographic and clinical information including vaccination status and hospitalization outcome (discharged or died) werecollected. Multivariable logistic regression was used to assess the odds of in-hospital mortality by vaccination status, adjusted for age, sex, number of comorbid conditions, disease severity, and COVID-19 treatment center. Vaccine effectiveness of [≥]1 vaccine dose was calculated from the adjusted odds ratio. ResultsAmong 1,653 patients with data on their vaccination status and hospitalization outcome, 365 (22.1%) died. Overall, 236 (14.3%) patients had received [≥]1 vaccine dose before hospital admission. For patients who had received [≥]1 vaccine dose, 22 (9.3%) died compared with 343 (24.2%) among unvaccinated patients (p <0.01). The median time since receipt of a first vaccine dose was 52.5 days (IQR: 28-107). Vaccine effectiveness for progression to in-hospital mortality among hospitalized patients was 64.8% (95% CI: 42.3-79.4%). ConclusionsAmong patients admitted to COVID-19 treatment centers in Zambia, COVID-19 vaccination was associated with lower progression to in-hospital mortality. These data are consistent with evidence from other countries demonstrating benefit of COVID-19 vaccination against severe complications. Vaccination is a critical tool for reducing the consequences of COVID-19 in Zambia. Key points- Receipt of [≥]1 COVID-19 vaccine dose reduced progression to in-hospital mortality in Zambia by 64.8% - Mortality benefit of COVID-19 vaccines was sustained during the period of omicron transmission in Zambia
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BackgroundThe unprecedented public health impact of the COVID-19 pandemic has motivated a rapid search for potential therapeutics, with some key successes. However, the potential impact of different treatments, and consequently research and procurement priorities, have not been clear. Methods and FindingsWe develop a mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission, COVID-19 disease and clinical care to explore the potential public-health impact of a range of different potential therapeutics, under a range of different scenarios varying: i) healthcare capacity, ii) epidemic trajectories; and iii) drug efficacy in the absence of supportive care. In each case, the outcome of interest was the number of COVID-19 deaths averted in scenarios with the therapeutic compared to scenarios without. We find the impact of drugs like dexamethasone (which are delivered to the most critically-ill in hospital and whose therapeutic benefit is expected to depend on the availability of supportive care such as oxygen and mechanical ventilation) is likely to be limited in settings where healthcare capacity is lowest or where uncontrolled epidemics result in hospitals being overwhelmed. As such, it may avert 22% of deaths in high-income countries but only 8% in low-income countries (assuming R=1.35). Therapeutics for different patient populations (those not in hospital, early in the course of infection) and types of benefit (reducing disease severity or infectiousness, preventing hospitalisation) could have much greater benefits, particularly in resource-poor settings facing large epidemics. ConclusionsThere is a global asymmetry in who is likely to benefit from advances in the treatment of COVID-19 to date, which have been focussed on hospitalised-patients and predicated on an assumption of adequate access to supportive care. Therapeutics that can feasibly be delivered to those earlier in the course of infection that reduce the need for healthcare or reduce infectiousness could have significant impact, and research into their efficacy and means of delivery should be a priority.