RESUMEN
Ecologists studying emerging wildlife diseases need to confront the realism of imperfect pathogen detection across heterogeneous habitats to aid in conservation decisions. For example, spatial risk assessments of amphibian disease caused by Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) has largely ignored imperfect pathogen detection across sampling sites. Because changes in pathogenicity and host susceptibility could trigger recurrent population declines, it is imperative to understand how pathogen prevalence and occupancy vary across environmental gradients. Here, we assessed how Bd occurrence, prevalence, and infection intensity in a diverse Neotropical landscape vary across streams in relation to abiotic and biotic predictors using a hierarchical Bayesian model that accounts for imperfect Bd detection caused by qPCR error. Our model indicated that the number of streams harboring Bd-infected frogs is higher than observed, with Bd likely being present at ~ 43% more streams than it was detected. We found that terrestrial-breeders captured along streams had higher Bd prevalence, but lower infection intensity, than aquatic-breeding species. We found a positive relationship between Bd occupancy probability and stream density, and a negative relationship between Bd occupancy probability and amphibian local richness. Forest cover was a weak predictor of Bd occurrence and infection intensity. Finally, we provide estimates for the minimum number of amphibian captures needed to determine the presence of Bd at a given site where Bd occurs, thus, providing guidence for cost-effective disease risk monitoring programs.
Asunto(s)
Quitridiomicetos , Ríos , Anfibios , Animales , Anuros , Teorema de Bayes , EcosistemaRESUMEN
Emerging infectious pathogens are responsible for some of the most severe host mass mortality events in wild populations. Yet, effective pathogen control strategies are notoriously difficult to identify, in part because quantifying and forecasting pathogen spread and disease dynamics is challenging. Following an outbreak, hosts must cope with the presence of the pathogen, leading to host-pathogen coexistence or extirpation. Despite decades of research, little is known about host-pathogen coexistence post-outbreak when low host abundances and cryptic species make these interactions difficult to study. Using a novel disease-structured N-mixture model, we evaluate empirical support for three host-pathogen coexistence hypotheses (source-sink, eco-evolutionary rescue, and spatial variation in pathogen transmission) in a Neotropical amphibian community decimated by Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) in 2004. During 2010-2014, we surveyed amphibians in Parque Nacional G. D. Omar Torríjos Herrera, Coclé Province, El Copé, Panama. We found that the primary driver of host-pathogen coexistence was eco-evolutionary rescue, as evidenced by similar amphibian survival and recruitment rates between infected and uninfected hosts. Average apparent monthly survival rates of uninfected and infected hosts were both close to 96%, and the expected number of uninfected and infected hosts recruited (via immigration/reproduction) was less than one host per disease state per 20-m site. The secondary driver of host-pathogen coexistence was spatial variation in pathogen transmission as we found that transmission was highest in areas of low abundance but there was no support for the source-sink hypothesis. Our results indicate that changes in the host community (i.e., through genetic or species composition) can reduce the impacts of emerging infectious disease post-outbreak. Our disease-structured N-mixture model represents a valuable advancement for conservation managers trying to understand underlying host-pathogen interactions and provides new opportunities to study disease dynamics in remnant host populations decimated by virulent pathogens.
Asunto(s)
Anfibios , Evolución Biológica , Quitridiomicetos/fisiología , Enfermedades Transmisibles Emergentes/veterinaria , Interacciones Huésped-Patógeno , Micosis/veterinaria , Animales , Micosis/microbiología , PanamáRESUMEN
Chytridiomycosis is an emerging infectious disease of amphibians caused by the fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), which has led to devastating declines in amphibian populations worldwide. Current theory predicts that Bd infections are maintained through both reproduction on the host's skin and reinfection from sources outside of the host. To investigate the importance of external reinfection on pathogen burden, we infected captive-bred individuals of the highly susceptible Panamanian Golden Frog, Atelopus glyphus, and wild-caught glass frogs, Espadarana prosoblepon, with Bd. We housed the animals in one of three treatments: individually, in heterospecific pairs, and in conspecific pairs. For 8 weeks, we measured the Bd load and shedding rate of all frogs. We found that Atelopus had high rates of increase in both Bd load and shedding rate, but pathogen growth rates did not differ among treatments. The infection intensity of Espadarana co-housed with Atelopus was indistinguishable from those housed singly and those in conspecific pairs, despite being exposed to a large external source of Bd zoospores. Our results indicate that Bd load in both species is driven by pathogen replication within an individual, with reinfection from outside the host contributing little to the amplification of host fungal load.
Asunto(s)
Anuros/microbiología , Quitridiomicetos/crecimiento & desarrollo , Quitridiomicetos/patogenicidad , Micosis/veterinaria , Crianza de Animales Domésticos , Animales , Micosis/epidemiología , Micosis/transmisión , Panamá/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
Emerging infectious diseases can cause host community disassembly, but the mechanisms driving the order of species declines and extirpations following a disease outbreak are unclear. We documented the community disassembly of a Neotropical tadpole community during a chytridiomycosis outbreak, triggered by the generalist fungal pathogen, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd). Within the first 11 months of Bd arrival, tadpole density and occupancy rapidly declined. Species rarity, in terms of tadpole occupancy and adult relative abundance, did not predict the odds of tadpole occupancy declines. But species losses were taxonomically selective, with glassfrogs (Family: Centrolenidae) disappearing the fastest and tree frogs (Family: Hylidae) and dart-poison frogs (Family: Dendrobatidae) remaining the longest. We detected biotic homogenization of tadpole communities, with post-decline communities resembling one another more strongly than pre-decline communities. The entire tadpole community was extirpated within 22 months following Bd arrival, and we found limited signs of recovery within 10 years post-outbreak. Because of imperfect species detection inherent to sampling species-rich tropical communities and the difficulty of devising a single study design protocol to sample physically complex tropical habitats, we used simulations to provide recommendations for future surveys to adequately sample diverse Neotropical communities. Our unique data set on tadpole community composition before and after Bd arrival is a valuable baseline for assessing amphibian recovery. Our results are of direct relevance to conservation managers and community ecologists interested in understanding the timing, magnitude, and consequences of disease outbreaks as emerging infectious diseases spread globally.