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OJECTIVE: To analyze how patterns of excess mortality varied by sex and age groups across countries during the COVID-19 pandemic and their association with country income level. METHODS: We used World Health Organization excess mortality estimates by sex and age groups for 75 countries in 2020 and 62 countries in 2021, restricting the sample to estimates based on recorded all-cause mortality data. We examined patterns across countries using country-specific Poisson regressions with observations consisting of the number of excess deaths by groups defined by sex and age. FINDINGS: Men die at higher rates in nearly all places and at all ages beyond age 45. In 2020, the pandemic amplified this gender mortality gap for the world, but with variation across countries and by country income level. In high-income countries, rates of excess mortality were much higher for men than women. In contrast, in middle-income countries, the sex ratio of excess mortality was similar to the sex ratio of expected all-cause mortality. The exacerbation of the sex ratio of excess mortality observed in 2020 in high-income countries, however, declined in 2021. CONCLUSION: The COVID-19 pandemic has killed men at much higher rates than women, as has been well documented, but these gender differences have varied by country income. These differences were the result of some combination of variation in gender patterns of infection rates and infection fatality rates across countries. The gender gap in mortality declined in high-income countries in 2021, likely as a result of the faster rollout of vaccination against COVID-19.

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OBJECTIVES: Previous studies have found a pattern of flatter COVID-19 age-mortality curves among low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) using only official COVID-19 death counts. This study examines this question by comparing the age gradient of COVID-19 mortality in a broad set of countries using both official COVID-19 death counts and excess mortality estimates for 2020. DESIGN: This observational study uses official COVID-19 death counts for 76 countries and excess death estimates for 42 countries. A standardised population analysis was conducted to assess the extent to which variation across countries in the age distribution of COVID-19 deaths was driven by variation in the population age distribution. SETTING AND PRIMARY OUTCOMES: Officially reported COVID-19 deaths and excess deaths for 2020 for all countries where such data were available in the COVerAGE database and the short-term mortality fluctuations harmonised data series, respectively. RESULTS: A higher share of pandemic-related deaths in 2020 occurred at younger ages in middle-income countries compared with high-income countries. People under age 65 years constituted on average (1) 10% of official deaths and 11 % of excess deaths in high-income countries, (2) 34% of official deaths and 33% of excess deaths in upper-middle-income countries, and (3) 54% of official deaths in LMICs. These contrasting profiles are due only in part to differences in population age structure. CONCLUSIONS: These findings are driven by some combination of variation in age patterns of infection rates and infection fatality rates. They indicate that COVID-19 is not just a danger to older people in developing countries, where a large share of victims are people of working age, who are caregivers and breadwinners for their families.

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Substantial declines in early childhood mortality have taken place in many countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. Kenya's infant mortality rate fell by 7.6 percent per year between 2003 and 2008, the fastest rate of decline among the 20 countries in the region for which recent Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data are available. The average rate of decline across all 20 countries was 3.6 percent per year. Among the possible causes of the observed decline in Kenya is a large-scale campaign to distribute insecticide-treated bednets (ITN) which started in 2004. A Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition using DHS data shows that the increased ownership of bednets in endemic malaria zones explains 79 percent of the decline in infant mortality. Although the Oaxaca-Blinder method cannot identify causal effects, given the wide evidence basis showing that ITN usage can reduce malaria prevalence and the huge surge in ITN ownership in Kenya, it is likely that the decomposition results reflect at least in part a causal effect. The widespread ownership of ITNs in areas of Kenya where malaria is rare suggests that better targeting of ITN provision could improve the cost-effectiveness of such programs.

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