RESUMEN
The Amazon forest carbon sink is declining, mainly as a result of land-use and climate change1-4. Here we investigate how changes in law enforcement of environmental protection policies may have affected the Amazonian carbon balance between 2010 and 2018 compared with 2019 and 2020, based on atmospheric CO2 vertical profiles5,6, deforestation7 and fire data8, as well as infraction notices related to illegal deforestation9. We estimate that Amazonia carbon emissions increased from a mean of 0.24 ± 0.08 PgC year-1 in 2010-2018 to 0.44 ± 0.10 PgC year-1 in 2019 and 0.52 ± 0.10 PgC year-1 in 2020 (± uncertainty). The observed increases in deforestation were 82% and 77% (94% accuracy) and burned area were 14% and 42% in 2019 and 2020 compared with the 2010-2018 mean, respectively. We find that the numbers of notifications of infractions against flora decreased by 30% and 54% and fines paid by 74% and 89% in 2019 and 2020, respectively. Carbon losses during 2019-2020 were comparable with those of the record warm El Niño (2015-2016) without an extreme drought event. Statistical tests show that the observed differences between the 2010-2018 mean and 2019-2020 are unlikely to have arisen by chance. The changes in the carbon budget of Amazonia during 2019-2020 were mainly because of western Amazonia becoming a carbon source. Our results indicate that a decline in law enforcement led to increases in deforestation, biomass burning and forest degradation, which increased carbon emissions and enhanced drying and warming of the Amazon forests.
Asunto(s)
Dióxido de Carbono , Secuestro de Carbono , Conservación de los Recursos Naturales , Política Ambiental , Aplicación de la Ley , Bosque Lluvioso , Biomasa , Brasil , Dióxido de Carbono/análisis , Dióxido de Carbono/metabolismo , Política Ambiental/legislación & jurisprudencia , Atmósfera/química , Incendios Forestales/estadística & datos numéricos , Conservación de los Recursos Naturales/estadística & datos numéricos , El Niño Oscilación del Sur , Sequías/estadística & datos numéricosRESUMEN
Multivariate calibration based on partial least squares, random forest, and support vector machine methods, combined with the MissForest imputation algorithm, was used to understand the interaction between ozone and nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide, wind speed, solar radiation, temperature, relative humidity, and others, the data of which were collected by air quality monitoring stations in the metropolitan area of Rio de Janeiro in four distinct sites between, 2014 and, 2018. These techniques provide an easy and feasible way of modeling and analyzing air pollutants and can be used when coupled with other methods. The results showed that random forest and support vector machine chemometric techniques can be used in modeling and predicting tropospheric ozone concentrations, with a coefficient of determination for making predictions up to 0.92, a root-mean square error of calibration between 4.66 and 27.15 µg m-3, and a root-mean square error of prediction between 4.17 and 22.45 µg m-3, depending on the air quality monitoring stations and season.