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Math Biosci ; 375: 109244, 2024 Sep.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38950818

RESUMEN

We construct, analyze and interpret a mathematical model for an environmental transmitted disease characterized for the existence of three disease stages: acute, severe and asymptomatic. Besides, we consider that severe and asymptomatic cases may present relapse between them. Transmission dynamics driven by the contact rates only occurs when a parameter R∗>1, as normally occur in directly-transmitted or vector-transmitted diseases, but it will not adequately correspond to a basic reproductive number as it depends on environmental parameters. In this case, the forward transcritical bifurcation that exists for R∗<1, becomes a backward bifurcation, producing multiple steady-states, a hysteresis effect and dependence on initial conditions. A threshold parameter for an epidemic outbreak, independent of R∗ is only the ratio of the external contamination inflow shedding rate to the environmental clearance rate. R∗ describes the strength of the transmission to infectious classes other than the I-(acute) type infections. The epidemic outbreak conditions and the structure of R∗ appearing in this model are both responsible for the existence of endemic states.


Asunto(s)
Enfermedades Transmisibles , Humanos , Enfermedades Transmisibles/transmisión , Enfermedades Transmisibles/epidemiología , Número Básico de Reproducción/estadística & datos numéricos , Enfermedades Endémicas/estadística & datos numéricos , Brotes de Enfermedades , Modelos Biológicos , Epidemias/estadística & datos numéricos , Conceptos Matemáticos , Modelos Teóricos
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