RESUMEN
Hurricane risk characteristics are examined across the U. S. Gulf of Mexico coastline using a hexagonal tessellation. Using an extreme value model, parameters are collected representing the rate or λ (frequency), the scale or σ (range), and the shape or ξ (intensity) of the extreme wind distribution. These latent parameters and the 30-year return level are visualized across the grid. The greatest 30-year return levels are located toward the center of the Gulf of Mexico, and for inland locations, along the borders of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. Using a geographically weighted regression model, the relationship of these parameters to sea surface temperature (SST) is found to assess sensitivity to change. It is shown that as SSTs increase near the coast, the frequency of hurricanes in these grids decrease significantly. This reinforces the importance of SST in areas of likely tropical cyclogenesis in determining the number of hurricanes near the coast, along with SSTs along the lifespan of the storm, rather than simply local SST. The range of hurricane wind speeds experienced near Florida is shown to increase with increasing SSTs (insignificant), suggesting that increased temperatures may allow hurricanes to maintain their strength as they pass over the Florida peninsula. The modifiable areal unit problem is assessed using multiple grid sizes. Moran's I and the local statistic G are calculated to examine spatial autocorrelation in the parameters. This research opens up future questions regarding rapid intensification and decay close to the coast and the relationship to changing SSTs.
Asunto(s)
Tormentas Ciclónicas , Desastres , Alabama , Florida , Golfo de México , Louisiana , Mississippi , Modelos Teóricos , Riesgo , TemperaturaRESUMEN
PIP: A consistent, positive association has been found between female education and socioeconomic development indicators such as infant and child mortality, family nutrition, and family planning acceptance. The World Bank has estimated that investments in female primary education yield a return of 20%. In Guatemala, where fewer than one in every eight girls who enrolls in first grade graduates from the sixth grade, government and business leaders have developed a national plan of action aimed at encouraging female school attendance. A National Commission on Girls' Education, formed in 1991, has formulated 40 projects that can be implemented by public and private institutions. These projects emerged from an analysis of specific obstacles to primary school completion and the identification of the most effective incentives for encouraging family and community support of female education. The Educate Girls Project, scheduled to be implemented in the 20 Guatemalan communities with the highest differentials between the school attendance and graduation rates of girls and boys, will include tutoring for girls, scholarships to help offset the costs to families of the loss of daughters' labor, teacher training on strategies for motivating girls, training for parent committees, and educational materials that feature female role models. Examples of other projects are mobile schools for families who migrate to the coast during the harvest and weekend schools for girls whose families are unable to release them from economic responsibilities during the school week.^ieng