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BackgroundSARS-CoV-2 viral entry may disrupt angiotensin II (Ang II) homeostasis in part via ACE2 downregulation, potentially contributing to COVID-19 induced lung injury. Preclinical models of viral pneumonias that utilize ACE2 demonstrate Ang II type 1 receptor (AT1R) blockade mitigates lung injury, though observational COVID-19 data addressing the effect of AT1R blockade remain mixed. MethodsMulticenter, blinded, placebo-controlled randomized trial of losartan (50 mg PO twice daily for 10 days) versus placebo. Hospitalized patients with COVID-19 and a respiratory sequential organ failure assessment score of at least 1 and not already taking a renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system (RAAS) inhibitor were eligible. The primary outcome was the imputed partial pressure of oxygen to fraction of inspired oxygen (PaO2/FiO2) ratio at 7 days. Secondary outcomes included ordinal COVID-19 severity, oxygen, ventilator, and vasopressor-free days, and mortality. Losartan pharmacokinetics (PK) and RAAS components [Ang II, angiotensin-(1-7) (Ang-(1-7)), ACE, ACE2] were measured in a subgroup of participants. FindingsFrom April 2020 - February 2021, 205 participants were randomized, 101 to losartan and 104 to placebo. Compared to placebo, losartan did not significantly affect PaO2/FiO2 ratio at 7 days [difference of -24.8 (95% -55.6 to 6.1; p=0.12)]. Losartan did not improve any secondary clinical outcome, but worsened vasopressor-free days. PK data were consistent with appropriate steady-state concentrations, but we observed no significant effect of losartan on RAAS components. InterpretationInitiation of orally administered losartan to hospitalized patients with COVID-19 and acute lung injury does not improve PaO2 / FiO2 ratio at 7 days. These data may have implications for ongoing clinical trials. Trial RegistrationLosartan for Patients With COVID-19 Requiring Hospitalization (NCT04312009), https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04312009
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ImportanceAn artificial intelligence (AI)-based model to predict COVID-19 likelihood from chest x-ray (CXR) findings can serve as an important adjunct to accelerate immediate clinical decision making and improve clinical decision making. Despite significant efforts, many limitations and biases exist in previously developed AI diagnostic models for COVID-19. Utilizing a large set of local and international CXR images, we developed an AI model with high performance on temporal and external validation. ObjectiveInvestigate real-time performance of an AI-enabled COVID-19 diagnostic support system across a 12-hospital system. DesignProspective observational study. SettingLabeled frontal CXR images (samples of COVID-19 and non-COVID-19) from the M Health Fairview (Minnesota, USA), Valencian Region Medical ImageBank (Spain), MIMIC-CXR, Open-I 2013 Chest X-ray Collection, GitHub COVID-19 Image Data Collection (International), Indiana University (Indiana, USA), and Emory University (Georgia, USA) ParticipantsInternal (training, temporal, and real-time validation): 51,592 CXRs; Public: 27,424 CXRs; External (Indiana University): 10,002 CXRs; External (Emory University): 2002 CXRs Main Outcome and MeasureModel performance assessed via receiver operating characteristic (ROC), Precision-Recall curves, and F1 score. ResultsPatients that were COVID-19 positive had significantly higher COVID-19 Diagnostic Scores (median .1 [IQR: 0.0-0.8] vs median 0.0 [IQR: 0.0-0.1], p < 0.001) than patients that were COVID-19 negative. Pre-implementation the AI-model performed well on temporal validation (AUROC 0.8) and external validation (AUROC 0.76 at Indiana U, AUROC 0.72 at Emory U). The model was noted to have unrealistic performance (AUROC > 0.95) using publicly available databases. Real-time model performance was unchanged over 19 weeks of implementation (AUROC 0.70). On subgroup analysis, the model had improved discrimination for patients with "severe" as compared to "mild or moderate" disease, p < 0.001. Model performance was highest in Asians and lowest in whites and similar between males and females. Conclusions and RelevanceAI-based diagnostic tools may serve as an adjunct, but not replacement, for clinical decision support of COVID-19 diagnosis, which largely hinges on exposure history, signs, and symptoms. While AI-based tools have not yet reached full diagnostic potential in COVID-19, they may still offer valuable information to clinicians taken into consideration along with clinical signs and symptoms.
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Background: There is limited understanding of heterogeneity in outcomes across hospitalized patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Identification of distinct clinical phenotypes may facilitate tailored therapy and improve outcomes. Objective: Identify specific clinical phenotypes across COVID-19 patients and compare admission characteristics and outcomes. Design, Settings, and Participants: Retrospective analysis of 1,022 COVID-19 patient admissions from 14 Midwest U.S. hospitals between March 7, 2020 and August 25, 2020. Methods: Ensemble clustering was performed on a set of 33 vitals and labs variables collected within 72 hours of admission. K-means based consensus clustering was used to identify three clinical phenotypes. Principal component analysis was performed on the average covariance matrix of all imputed datasets to visualize clustering and variable relationships. Multinomial regression models were fit to further compare patient comorbidities across phenotype classification. Multivariable models were fit to estimate the association between phenotype and in-hospital complications and clinical outcomes. Main outcomes and measures: Phenotype classification (I, II, III), patient characteristics associated with phenotype assignment, in-hospital complications, and clinical outcomes including ICU admission, need for mechanical ventilation, hospital length of stay, and mortality. Results: The database included 1,022 patients requiring hospital admission with COVID-19 (median age, 62.1 [IQR: 45.9-75.8] years; 481 [48.6%] male, 412 [40.3%] required ICU admission, 437 [46.7%] were white). Three clinical phenotypes were identified (I, II, III); 236 [23.1%] patients had phenotype I, 613 [60%] patients had phenotype II, and 173 [16.9%] patients had phenotype III. When grouping comorbidities by organ system, patients with respiratory comorbidities were most commonly characterized by phenotype III (p=0.002), while patients with hematologic (p<0.001), renal (p<0.001), and cardiac (p<0.001) comorbidities were most commonly characterized by phenotype I. The adjusted odds of respiratory (p<0.001), renal (p<0.001), and metabolic (p<0.001) complications were highest for patients with phenotype I, followed by phenotype II. Patients with phenotype I had a far greater odds of hepatic (p<0.001) and hematological (p=0.02) complications than the other two phenotypes. Phenotypes I and II were associated with 7.30-fold (HR: 7.30, 95% CI: (3.11-17.17), p<0.001) and 2.57-fold (HR: 2.57, 95% CI: (1.10-6.00), p=0.03) increases in the hazard of death, respectively, when compared to phenotype III. Conclusion: In this retrospective analysis of patients with COVID-19, three clinical phenotypes were identified. Future research is urgently needed to determine the utility of these phenotypes in clinical practice and trial design.
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BackgroundDespite past and ongoing efforts to achieve health equity in the United States, persistent disparities in socioeconomic status along with multilevel racism maintain disparate outcomes and appear to be amplified by COVID-19. ObjectiveMeasure socioeconomic factors and primary language effects on the risk of COVID-19 severity across and within racial/ethnic groups. DesignRetrospective cohort study. SettingHealth records of 12 Midwest hospitals and 60 clinics in the U.S. between March 4, 2020 to August 19, 2020. PatientsPCR+ COVID-19 patients. ExposuresMain exposures included race/ethnicity, area deprivation index (ADI), and primary language. Main Outcomes and MeasuresThe primary outcome was COVID-19 severity using hospitalization within 45 days of diagnosis. Logistic and competing-risk regression models (censored at 45 days and accounting for the competing risk of death prior to hospitalization) assessed the effects of neighborhood-level deprivation (using the ADI) and primary language. Within race effects of ADI and primary language were measured using logistic regression. Results5,577 COVID-19 patients were included, 866 (n=15.5%) were hospitalized within 45 days of diagnosis. Hospitalized patients were older (60.9 vs. 40.4 years, p<0.001) and more likely to be male (n=425 [49.1%] vs. 2,049 [43.5%], p=0.002). Of those requiring hospitalization, 43.9% (n=381), 19.9% (n=172), 18.6% (n=161), and 11.8% (n=102) were White, Black, Asian, and Hispanic, respectively. Independent of ADI, minority race/ethnicity was associated with COVID-19 severity; Hispanic patients (OR 3.8, 95% CI 2.72-5.30), Asians (OR 2.39, 95% CI 1.74-3.29), and Blacks (OR 1.50, 95% CI 1.15-1.94). ADI was not associated with hospitalization. Non-English speaking (OR 1.91, 95% CI 1.51-2.43) significantly increased odds of hospital admission across and within minority groups. ConclusionsMinority populations have increased odds of severe COVID-19 independent of neighborhood deprivation, a commonly suspected driver of disparate outcomes. Non-English-speaking accounts for differences across and within minority populations. These results support the continued concern that racism contributes to disparities during COVID-19 while also highlighting the underappreciated role primary language plays in COVID-19 severity across and within minority groups. Key PointsO_ST_ABSQuestionC_ST_ABSDoes socioeconomic factors or primary language account for racial disparities in COVID-19 disease severity? FindingsIn this observational study of 5,577 adults, race/ethnicity minorities and non-English as a primary language, independent of neighborhood-level deprivation, are associated with increased risk of severe COVID-19 disease. MeaningSocioeconomic factors do not account for racial/ethnic disparities related to COVID-19 severity which supports further investigation into the racism and highlights the need to focus on our non-English speaking populations.
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BackgroundCovid-19 disease causes significant morbidity and mortality through increase inflammation and thrombosis. Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis are states of chronic inflammation and indicate advanced metabolic disease. We sought to understand the risk of hospitalization for Covid-19 associated with NAFLD/NASH. MethodsRetrospective analysis of electronic medical record data of 6,700 adults with a positive SARS-CoV-2 PCR from March 1, 2020 to Aug 25, 2020. Logistic regression and competing risk were used to assess odds of being hospitalized. Additional adjustment was added to assess risk of hospitalization among patients with a prescription for metformin use within the 3 months prior to the SARS-CoV-2 PCR result, history of home glucagon-like-peptide 1 receptor agonist (GLP-1 RA) use, and history of metabolic and bariatric surgery (MBS). Interactions were assessed by gender and race. ResultsA history of NAFLD/NASH was associated with increased odds of admission for Covid-19: logistic regression OR 2.04 (1.55, 2.96, p<0.01), competing risks OR 1.43 (1.09-1.88, p<0.01); and each additional year of having NAFLD/NASH was associated with a significant increased risk of being hospitalized for Covid-19, OR 1.86 (1.43-2.42, p<0.01). After controlling for NAFLD/NASH, persons with obesity had decreased odds of hospitalization for Covid-19, OR 0.41 (0.34-0.49, p<0.01). NAFLD/NASH increased risk of hospitalization in men and women, and in all racial/ethnic subgroups. Mediation treatments for metabolic syndrome were associated with non-significant reduced risk of admission: OR 0.42 (0.18-1.01, p=0.05) for home metformin use and OR 0.40 (0.14-1.17, p=0.10) for home GLP-1RA use. MBS was associated with a significant decreased risk of admission: OR 0.22 (0.05-0.98, p<0.05). ConclusionsNAFLD/NASH is a significant risk factor for hospitalization for Covid-19, and appears to account for risk attributed to obesity. Treatments for metabolic disease mitigated risks from NAFLD/NASH. More research is needed to confirm risk associated with visceral adiposity, and patients should be screened for and informed of treatments for metabolic syndrome. Key QuestionsO_ST_ABSQuestionC_ST_ABSDoes NAFLD/NASH independently increase risk for poor outcomes from Covid-19? FindingsIn this observational study, a history of NAFLD/NASH was associated with a significantly increased odds of hospitalization. Metabolic surgery was protective against admission in persons with NAFLD/NASH and Covid-19. Metformin and glucagon like peptide 1 receptor agonists were associated with non-significant protecting against admission. MeaningTreatment for metabolic syndrome greatly reduce the elevated risk of hospitalization for Covid-19 among persons with NAFLD/NASH.
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ImportanceType 2 diabetes (T2DM) and obesity are significant risk factors for mortality in Covid19. Metformin has sex specific immunomodulatory effects which may elucidate treatment mechanisms in COVID-19. Objective: We sought to identify whether metformin reduced mortality from Covid19 and if sex specific interactions exist. DesignRetrospective review of de-identified claims from UnitedHealth Groups Clinical Discovery Database. Unadjusted and multivariate models were conducted to assess risk of mortality based on metformin and tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNF) inhibitors as home medications in individuals with T2DM and obesity, controlling for comorbidities, medications, demographics, and state. Heterogeneity of effect was assessed by sex. SettingThe database includes all 50 states in the United States. Participants: Persons with at least 6 months of continuous coverage from UnitedHealth Group in 2019 who were hospitalized with Covid-19. Persons in the metformin group had > 90 days of metformin claims in the 12 months before hospitalization. Results6,256 persons were included; 52.8% female; mean age 75 years. Metformin was associated with decreased mortality in women by logistic regression, OR 0.792 (0.640, 0.979); mixed effects OR 0.780 (0.631, 0.965); Cox proportional-hazards: HR 0.785 (0.650, 0.951); and propensity matching, OR of 0.759 (0.601, 0.960). There was no significant reduction in mortality among men. TNF inhibitors were associated with decreased mortality, by propensity matching in a limited model, OR 0.19 (0.0378, 0.983). ConclusionsMetformin was significantly associated with reduced mortality in women with obesity or T2DM in observational analyses of claims data from individuals hospitalized with Covid-19. This sex-specific finding is consistent with metformins reduction of TNF in females over males, and suggests that metformin conveys protection in Covid-19 through TNF effects. Prospective studies are needed to understand mechanism and causality. Key PointsO_ST_ABSQuestionC_ST_ABSMetformin has many anti-inflammatory effects, including sex-specific effects on TNF. Is metformin protective from the Sars-CoV-2 virus, and does the effect differ by sex? FindingsMetformin was associated with reduced mortality in women who were hospitalized with Covid-19, but not in men who were hospitalized with Covid-19. MeaningThe sex-dependent survival by metformin use points towards TNF reduction as a key mechanism for protection from Covid-19.