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OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to establish a simple, nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) screening model using readily available variables to identify high-risk individuals in Western Xinjiang, China. METHODS: A total of 40 033 patients from the National Health Examination were divided into a training group (70%) and a validation group (30%). Univariate regression and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator models optimized feature selection, while a multivariate logistic regression analysis constructed the prediction model. The model's performance was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, and its clinical utility was assessed through decision curve analysis. RESULTS: The nomogram assessed NAFLD risk based on factors such as sex, age, diastolic blood pressure, waist circumference, BMI, fasting plasma glucose, alanine aminotransferase, platelet count, total cholesterol, triglycerides, low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol, and high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curves were 0.829 for men and 0.859 for women in the development group, and 0.817 for men and 0.865 for women in the validation group. The decision curve analysis confirmed the nomogram's clinical usefulness, with consistent findings in the validation set. CONCLUSION: A user-friendly nomogram prediction model for NAFLD risk was successfully developed and validated for Western Xinjiang, China.

Asunto(s)

Nomogramas , Enfermedad del Hígado Graso no Alcohólico , Valor Predictivo de las Pruebas , Curva ROC , Humanos , Enfermedad del Hígado Graso no Alcohólico/diagnóstico , Enfermedad del Hígado Graso no Alcohólico/sangre , Enfermedad del Hígado Graso no Alcohólico/epidemiología , Masculino , Femenino , Persona de Mediana Edad , China/epidemiología , Adulto , Factores de Riesgo , Medición de Riesgo , Reproducibilidad de los Resultados , Modelos Logísticos , Técnicas de Apoyo para la Decisión , Biomarcadores/sangre , Análisis Multivariante , Área Bajo la Curva , Anciano , Factores Sexuales , Circunferencia de la Cintura , Factores de Edad , Glucemia/metabolismo , Glucemia/análisis , Índice de Masa Corporal , Lípidos/sangre , Recuento de Plaquetas , Presión Sanguínea , Alanina Transaminasa/sangre

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Objective@#To analyze the characteristics of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) pollution in Urumqi City, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region from 2016 to 2023 and establish a prediction model, so as to provide the reference for air pollution prevention and control.@*Methods@#PM2.5 monitoring data of Urumqi City from 2016 to 2023 were collected through the website of Ministry of Ecology and Environment of China. The changing trend of PM2.5 concentration was analyzed using temporal chart and seasonal index. PM2.5 monthly average concentrations from 2016 to 2023 were used to establish an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, and the data in 2023 was fitted and compared with the actual values, using mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) to evaluate the effectiveness of the model, and PM2.5 monthly average concentration from 2024 to 2025 was predicted.@*Results@#PM2.5 daily average concentration in Urumqi City showed a decreasing trend from 2016 to 2023 (rs=-0.239, P<0.001), with high seasonal indexes in January, February and December, indicating certain seasonal characteristics. The optional model was ARIMA (1, 0, 0) (1, 1, 0)12, with the value of Akaike information criterion, corrected Akaike information criterion, and Bayesian information criterion being 727.38, 727.88 and 737.10, respectively. PM2.5 monthly average concentration in 2023 was fitted and compared with the actual values, with an absolute error range of 0.31-7.45 μg/m3, a relative error range of 0.01-0.53, and MAPE of 14.42%. PM2.5 monthly average concentration in Urumqi City from 2024 to 2025 was predicted to be consistent with the trend from 2016 to 2023.@*Conclusions@#PM2.5 concentration in Urumqi City showed a tendency towards a decline from 2016 to 2023, and was relatively high in winter. ARIMA (1, 0, 0) (1, 1, 0)12 can be used for short-term prediction of PM2.5 pollution in Urumqi City.

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We report on the experimental generation of various self-organized structures of bound states in a near zero-dispersion mode-locked fiber laser. When the pump power is fixed at 492 mW, appropriately adjusting polarization controllers, the switching of the cavity feedback results in the evolution from the single pulse to the dispersion-managed soliton (i.e., stretched-pulse) pair. With the increase of pump power, bound states composed of more than two pulses can also be observed. Our results of the self-organized structures might enlarge the data-carrying capacity of current fiber-optical communication systems and benefit the investigation of nonlinear dynamics of bound states in fiber lasers at 2 µm.

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We report on the experimental observation of wavelength-switchable stretched pulse and bound-state pulse in a dispersion-managed Tm-doped laser. At a pump power of 572 mW, a stretched pulse with a pulse duration of 389 fs can be first obtained at 1961 nm. By increasing the pump power and appropriately adjusting the cavity polarization state, the mode-locking wavelength can be switched from 1961 nm to 1980 nm caused by the birefringence filtering effect based on nonlinear polarization rotation, and the corresponding pulse duration is 371 fs. Meanwhile, loosely bound states of two pulses and three pules at 1980 nm can be observed with appropriate cavity parameters.

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We demonstrate free-space transmission based on a broadband fiber laser at 16 Gbit/s over a simulated atmospheric turbulence channel. The broadband laser pulse is part of a supercontinuum generated by a homemade picosecond laser based on Raman gain soliton compression pumping a segment of highly nonlinear fiber. The scintillation indices, eye patterns, and bit error rates of transmission based on the broadband laser and a narrow-linewidth laser are compared. The results show a 29.5% reduction in the scintillation index and sensitivity of -28.6 dBm at the forward error correction limit, which has a 2.9 dB improvement compared with the narrow-linewidth system. It is feasible to use broadband lasers as carriers combining optical time division multiplexing as a multiplexing method to improve the communication performance under weak atmospheric turbulent conditions.