RESUMEN
Transitioning from a fossil-based to a bio-based economy is crucial to climate action and achieving neutrality in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Biofuel production is an essential land-based GHG mitigation alternative. However, it raises concerns about biodiversity conservation, competition with food production, and net GHG emissions associated with direct land-use change (dLUC). This study aims to assess how the location and conversion routes influence GHG emissions for sugarcane expansion in Brazil to supply ethanol demand projections for 2030. A consistent and significant reduction in GHG emissions is achievable by implementing a strategy that prioritizes the spatial distribution for ethanol biorefinery expansions based on georeferenced life cycle emissions, including dLUC emissions associated with sugarcane production. Because of conservative zoning for sugarcane expansion, dLUC emissions are not an overriding factor, representing less than 9.1 % of the total GHG mitigation potential. Despite that, accounting for georeferenced dLUC emissions when prioritizing expansion facilities leads to spatial differences. Regarding conversion routes and land requirements, using cellulosic biorefineries could meet future projected demand based on sugarcane production from 3.1 million hectares, mostly in currently degraded pastureland. Conventional refineries would require 5.5 million hectares to meet the same demand of 71 billion liters. Despite the 77 % higher land demand to produce the same volume of ethanol, conventional refineries with straw recovery could be considered if electricity generation is a priority. This study illustrates how Brazil can achieve GHG mitigation targets while attending to future energy demand and protecting areas with high biodiversity.
RESUMEN
Sugarcane straw removal for bioenergy production will increase substantially in the next years, but this may deplete soil organic carbon (SOC) and exacerbate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. These aspects are not consistently approached in bioenergy life cycle assessment (LCA). Using SOC modeling and LCA approach, this study addressed the life cycle GHG balance from sugarcane agroindustry in different scenarios of straw removal, considering the potential SOC changes associated with straw management in sugarcane-cultivated soils in Brazil. Long-term simulations showed SOC losses of up to -0.5 Mg ha-1 yr-1 upon complete straw removal, whereas the moderate removal had little effects on SOC and the maintenance of all straw in the field increased SOC accumulation by up to 0.4 Mg ha-1 yr-1. Our analysis suggests that accounting for SOC changes in LCA calculations could lower the net GHG benefits of straw-derived bioenergy, whose emissions intensity varied according to soil type. Overall, SOC depletion induced by complete straw removal increased the life cycle GHG emissions of straw-derived bioenergy by 26 % (3.9 g CO2eq MJ-1) compared to a scenario without taking SOC changes into account. Straw removal for cellulosic ethanol could be effective for mitigating GHG emissions relative to gasoline, but it was not advantageous for bioelectricity generation depending on the energy sources that are displaced. Therefore, straw-induced change of SOC stocks is a critical factor to model life cycle GHG emissions of straw-derived bioenergy.