RESUMEN
Given the high prevalence of imported diseases in immigrant populations, it has postulated the need to establish screening programs that allow their early diagnosis and treatment. We present a mathematical model based on machine learning methodologies to contribute to the design of screening programs in this population. We conducted a retrospective cross-sectional screening program of imported diseases in all immigrant patients who attended the Tropical Medicine Unit between January 2009 and December 2016. We designed a mathematical model based on machine learning methodologies to establish the set of most discriminatory prognostic variables to predict the onset of the: HIV infection, malaria, chronic hepatitis B and C, schistosomiasis, and Chagas in immigrant population. We analyzed 759 patients. HIV was predicted with an accuracy of 84.9% and the number of screenings to detect the first HIV-infected person was 26, as in the case of Chagas disease (with a predictive accuracy of 92.9%). For the other diseases the averages were 12 screenings to detect the first case of chronic hepatitis B (85.4%), or schistosomiasis (86.9%), 23 for hepatitis C (85.6%) or malaria (93.3%), and eight for syphilis (79.4%) and strongyloidiasis (88.4%). The use of machine learning methodologies allowed the prediction of the expected disease burden and made it possible to pinpoint with greater precision those immigrants who are likely to benefit from screening programs, thus contributing effectively to their development and design.
Asunto(s)
Enfermedades Transmisibles Importadas/diagnóstico , Diagnóstico Precoz , Emigrantes e Inmigrantes/estadística & datos numéricos , Aprendizaje Automático , Tamizaje Masivo/métodos , Adolescente , Adulto , África , Anciano , Anciano de 80 o más Años , Asia , América Central , Niño , Preescolar , Enfermedades Transmisibles Importadas/epidemiología , Estudios Transversales , Femenino , Humanos , Lactante , Recién Nacido , Masculino , México , Persona de Mediana Edad , Modelos Teóricos , Prevalencia , Estudios Retrospectivos , América del Sur , España/epidemiología , Adulto JovenRESUMEN
The female immigrant population is especially vulnerable to imported diseases. We describe the results of a prospective screening program for imported diseases performed in immigrant female patients. The protocol included tests for HIV, hepatitis B virus (HBV), hepatitis C virus (HCV), Treponema pallidum, Trypanosoma cruzi, Strongyloides stercoralis and Schistosoma spp., intestinal parasites, malaria, and the detection of microfilaremia, according to the patient's origin. Six hundred eleven patients were studied. The most frequent imported diseases were intestinal parasitosis (39.4%), followed by syphilis (14.6%), HIV infection (9%), chronic HCV (5%), and HBV (3.3%). Most of the cases of HIV (78%) and HBV (85%) were diagnosed in patients aged between 16 and 45 years. Hepatitis C virus appeared mostly in patients in the 46- to 65-year range (P = 0.001; odds ratio [OD]: 3.667 [1.741-7.724]) or older than 65 years (P = 0.0001; OR: 26.350 [7.509-92.463]). Syphilis was diagnosed more frequently in patients older than 46 years (P = 0.0001; OR: 4.273 [2.649-6.893]). Multivariate analysis confirmed a greater presence of HCV infection (P = 0.049) and syphilis (P = 0.0001) in patients aged between 46 and 65 years. In 15.4% of patients, screening did not find any pathology. These data show a high prevalence of imported diseases in the female immigrant population, which may have serious consequences in terms of morbimortality and vertical transmission. Our results encourage the establishment of policies of active screening both in women of childbearing age and within the specific pregnancy screening programs.