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Why does a beneficial treatment effect on a longitudinal biomarker not translate into overall treatment benefit on survival, when the biomarker is in fact a prognostic factor of survival? In a recent exploratory data analysis in oncology, we were faced with this seemingly paradoxical result. To address this problem, we applied a theoretically principled methodology called dynamic path analysis, which allows us to perform mediation analysis with a longitudinal mediator and survival outcome. The aim of the analysis is to decompose the total treatment effect into a direct treatment effect and an indirect treatment effect mediated through a carefully constructed mediation path. The dynamic nature of the underlying methodology enables us to describe how these effects evolve over time, which can add to the mechanistic understanding of the underlying processes. In this paper, we present a detailed description of the dynamic path analysis framework and illustrate its application to survival mediation analysis using simulated and real data. The use case analysis provides clarity on the specific exploratory question of interest while the methodology generalizes to a wide range of applications in drug development where time-to-event is the primary clinical outcome of interest.

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PURPOSE: Effective treatments for resectable non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) are limited and relapse rates are high. The interleukin (IL)-1ß pathway has been linked with tumor development and progression, including in the Canakinumab Anti-Inflammatory Thrombosis Outcomes cardiovascular study in which IL-1ß pathway inhibition with canakinumab reduced lung cancer incidence and mortality in an exploratory analysis. METHODS: CANOPY-A (ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT03447769) is a phase III, randomized, double-blind, multicenter study of canakinumab versus placebo for adult patients with stage II-IIIA or IIIB (T >5 cm, N2-positives II-IIIB; American Joint Committee on Cancer/Union for International Cancer Control version 8), completely resected NSCLC who had received adjuvant cisplatin-based chemotherapy. The primary end point was disease-free survival (DFS) and the key secondary end point was overall survival (OS). RESULTS: In total, 1,382 patients were randomized to 200 mg canakinumab (n = 693) or placebo (n = 689) once every 3 weeks for 18 cycles. Grade ≥3 adverse events (AEs) were reported in 20.8% and 19.6% of patients receiving canakinumab and placebo, respectively; AEs led to discontinuation in 4.3% and 4.1% of patients in these groups, respectively. This study did not meet its primary end point. Median DFS was 35.0 months (canakinumab arm) and 29.7 months (placebo arm; hazard ratio, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.78 to 1.14; one-sided P = .258). DFS subgroup analyses did not show any meaningful differences between arms. As expected, because of canakinumab-driven IL-1ß pathway inhibition, C-reactive protein and IL-6 levels decreased in the canakinumab arm versus placebo arm, but had no correlation with differential clinical outcomes. OS was not formally tested as DFS was not statistically significant. CONCLUSION: CANOPY-A did not show a DFS benefit of adding canakinumab after surgery and adjuvant cisplatin-based chemotherapy in patients with resected, stage II-III NSCLC. No new safety signals were identified with canakinumab.

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Purpose: Despite development of clinical "value frameworks" by national and international groups, there remains no generally accepted method to summarize toxicity in cancer clinical trials. We explored ways to simplify toxicity data of an arm of a cancer clinical trial to a single value, termed a "weighted toxicity score" (WTS).Experimental Design: We compiled 58 randomized clinical trials of FDA-approved kinase-directed inhibitors. We generated 5 models, each of which assigned different weights for each observed grade 1 to 4 toxicities. For each model, we calculated WTS values as different weighted averages of the sum of the toxicities. We correlated each WTS with the dose reduction rate in each trial, using the dose reduction rate as a clinically relevant surrogate of treatment that is too toxic. The WTS method yielding the strongest correlation with frequency of dose reduction was declared the best model.Results: Nineteen of 58 trials were placebo controlled and had complete data. Of the 5 models examined, differences in dose reduction rates correlated best with differences in WTS using a model with a clinician-weighted scale for toxicities (model M5). The WTS difference thus serves as a surrogate for a desired dose reduction rate difference and could be used to adjust dose/schedule as patients are accrued to a clinical trial.Conclusions: The WTS distills a tabular listing of toxicities of a treatment into a single value, and provides a simple method that can be incorporated into value frameworks, or used to guide discussion of the risks and benefits of systemic therapy. Clin Cancer Res; 24(20); 4968-75. ©2018 AACR See related commentary by Vaishampayan, p. 4918.

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In this review, we outline the biology and management of patients with carcinosarcomas and related malignancies, which are often included under the broader concept of sarcomatoid carcinomas. Carcinosarcomas are unusual tumors that are commonly gynecologic in origin, where they are referred to as malignant mixed Müllerian tumors, but may appear in any anatomic site. Although a variety of hypotheses have been presented as to the biphasic nature of these tumors, carcinosarcomas seem to represent the best example in human cancers of the concept of epithelial-mesenchymal transition (EMT), in which the two parts of the tumor are genomically related to one another, as opposed to the mesenchymal component that represents a second neoplasm or (benign) reactive process. In general, patients with carcinosarcomas fare worse than patients with carcinomas of the same anatomic site. Treatment paradigms for carcinosarcomas generally follow those of carcinomas of the same organ site, except where clinical trials provide more specific options. Agents that block or reverse EMT are worth examination in patients with carcinosarcoma and arguably may be even more effective in carcinomas, given evidence of dependence on EMT to generate successful metastases. Information about EMT may also inform other phase transitions in cancer, such as those between prostate or lung carcinoma and more aggressive tumors with neuroendocrine differentiation.

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IMPORTANCE: Immune checkpoint inhibitors have shown promising results in several cancers and are now put to the test in sarcomas. This brief summary presents data regarding the previously approved and newer agents for more common sarcomas and focuses on specific sarcoma histologic subtypes or novel approaches for which there is particular optimism. Approaches involving epigenetic agents, metabolic therapy, and modulators of the tumor microenvironment represent other ways the field of sarcoma medical oncology will progress in 2016 and beyond. OBSERVATIONS: A recent series of successful randomized trials provides new systemic therapy options for patients with metastatic soft-tissue sarcomas in the United States, after a gap of more than 10 years in which no new drugs were approved. The agents with most recent approval include pazopanib, trabectedin, and eribulin. As a sign that progress is not linear, 2 cousins of ifosfamide failed to show benefit in phase 3 trials, despite prior positive results of randomized phase 2 trials. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: The biological features of each sarcoma subtype are associated with specific sensitivity patterns to chemotherapy, and despite their rarity, future trials will need to emphasize specific histologic subtypes (many with well-defined genetic alterations) to best fit diagnosis to therapy.

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