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Background: Hospital-acquired venous thromboembolism (HA-VTE) is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality among hospitalized adults. Guidelines recommend use of a risk-prediction model to estimate HA-VTE risk for individual patients. Extant models do not perform well for broad patient populations and are not conducive to automation in clinical practice. Objectives: To develop an automated, real-time prognostic model for venous thromboembolism during hospitalization among all adult inpatients using readily available data from the electronic health record. Methods: The derivation cohort included inpatient hospitalizations ("encounters") for patients ≥16 years old at Vanderbilt University Medical Center between 2018 and 2020 (n = 132,330). HA-VTE events were identified using International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision, codes. The prognostic model was developed using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression. Temporal external validation was performed in a validation cohort of encounters between 2021 and 2022 (n = 62,546). Prediction performance was assessed by discrimination accuracy (C statistic) and calibration (integrated calibration index). Results: There were 1187 HA-VTEs in the derivation cohort (9.0 per 1000 encounters) and 864 in the validation cohort (13.8 per 1000 encounters). The prognostic model included 25 variables, with placement of a central line among the most important predictors. Prediction performance of the model was excellent (C statistic, 0.891; 95% CI, 0.882-0.900; integrated calibration index, 0.001). The model performed similarly well across subgroups of patients defined by age, sex, race, and type of admission. Conclusion: This fully automated prognostic model uses readily available data from the electronic health record, exhibits superior prediction performance compared with existing models, and generates granular risk stratification in the form of a predicted probability of HA-VTE for each patient.

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Background: Numerous pressure injury prediction models have been developed using electronic health record data, yet hospital-acquired pressure injuries (HAPIs) are increasing, which demonstrates the critical challenge of implementing these models in routine care. Objective: To help bridge the gap between development and implementation, we sought to create a model that was feasible, broadly applicable, dynamic, actionable, and rigorously validated and then compare its performance to usual care (ie, the Braden scale). Methods: We extracted electronic health record data from 197,991 adult hospital admissions with 51 candidate features. For risk prediction and feature selection, we used logistic regression with a least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) approach. To compare the model with usual care, we used the area under the receiver operating curve (AUC), Brier score, slope, intercept, and integrated calibration index. The model was validated using a temporally staggered cohort. Results: A total of 5458 HAPIs were identified between January 2018 and July 2022. We determined 22 features were necessary to achieve a parsimonious and highly accurate model. The top 5 features included tracheostomy, edema, central line, first albumin measure, and age. Our model achieved higher discrimination than the Braden scale (AUC 0.897, 95% CI 0.893-0.901 vs AUC 0.798, 95% CI 0.791-0.803). Conclusions: We developed and validated an accurate prediction model for HAPIs that surpassed the standard-of-care risk assessment and fulfilled necessary elements for implementation. Future work includes a pragmatic randomized trial to assess whether our model improves patient outcomes.

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OBJECTIVE: To develop and validate a predictive model for postpartum hemorrhage that can be deployed in clinical care using automated, real-time electronic health record (EHR) data and to compare performance of the model with a nationally published risk prediction tool. METHODS: A multivariable logistic regression model was developed from retrospective EHR data from 21,108 patients delivering at a quaternary medical center between January 1, 2018, and April 30, 2022. Deliveries were divided into derivation and validation sets based on an 80/20 split by date of delivery. Postpartum hemorrhage was defined as blood loss of 1,000 mL or more in addition to postpartum transfusion of 1 or more units of packed red blood cells. Model performance was evaluated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and was compared with a postpartum hemorrhage risk assessment tool published by the CMQCC (California Maternal Quality Care Collaborative). The model was then programmed into the EHR and again validated with prospectively collected data from 928 patients between November 7, 2023, and January 31, 2024. RESULTS: Postpartum hemorrhage occurred in 235 of 16,862 patients (1.4%) in the derivation cohort. The predictive model included 21 risk factors and demonstrated an AUC of 0.81 (95% CI, 0.79-0.84) and calibration slope of 1.0 (Brier score 0.013). During external temporal validation, the model maintained discrimination (AUC 0.80, 95% CI, 0.72-0.84) and calibration (calibration slope 0.95, Brier score 0.014). This was superior to the CMQCC tool (AUC 0.69 [95% CI, 0.67-0.70], P <.001). The model maintained performance in prospective, automated data collected with the predictive model in real time (AUC 0.82 [95% CI, 0.73-0.91]). CONCLUSION: We created and temporally validated a postpartum hemorrhage prediction model, demonstrated its superior performance over a commonly used risk prediction tool, successfully coded the model into the EHR, and prospectively validated the model using risk factor data collected in real time. Future work should evaluate external generalizability and effects on patient outcomes; to facilitate this work, we have included the model coefficients and examples of EHR integration in the article.

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Objective: Positive antinuclear antibodies (ANAs) cause diagnostic dilemmas for clinicians. Currently, no tools exist to help clinicians interpret the significance of a positive ANA in individuals without diagnosed autoimmune diseases. We developed and validated a risk model to predict risk of developing autoimmune disease in positive ANA individuals. Methods: Using a de-identified electronic health record (EHR), we randomly chart reviewed 2,000 positive ANA individuals to determine if a systemic autoimmune disease was diagnosed by a rheumatologist. A priori, we considered demographics, billing codes for autoimmune disease-related symptoms, and laboratory values as variables for the risk model. We performed logistic regression and machine learning models using training and validation samples. Results: We assembled training (n = 1030) and validation (n = 449) sets. Positive ANA individuals who were younger, female, had a higher titer ANA, higher platelet count, disease-specific autoantibodies, and more billing codes related to symptoms of autoimmune diseases were all more likely to develop autoimmune diseases. The most important variables included having a disease-specific autoantibody, number of billing codes for autoimmune disease-related symptoms, and platelet count. In the logistic regression model, AUC was 0.83 (95% CI 0.79-0.86) in the training set and 0.75 (95% CI 0.68-0.81) in the validation set. Conclusion: We developed and validated a risk model that predicts risk for developing systemic autoimmune diseases and can be deployed easily within the EHR. The model can risk stratify positive ANA individuals to ensure high-risk individuals receive urgent rheumatology referrals while reassuring low-risk individuals and reducing unnecessary referrals.

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Introduction: Social adaptation is a multifaceted process that encompasses cognitive, social, and affective factors. Previous research often focused on isolated variables, overlooking their interactions, especially in challenging environments. Our study addresses this by investigating how cognitive (working memory, verbal intelligence, self-regulation), social (affective empathy, family networks, loneliness), and psychological (locus of control, self-esteem, perceived stress) factors interact to influence social adaptation. Methods: We analyzed data from 254 adults (55% female) aged 18 to 46 in economically vulnerable households in Santiago, Chile. We used Latent profile analysis (LPA) and machine learning to uncover distinct patters of socioadaptive features and identify the most discriminating features. Results: LPA showed two distinct psychosocial adaptation profiles: one characterized by effective psychosocial adaptation and another by poor psychosocial adaptation. The adaptive profile featured individuals with strong emotional, cognitive, and behavioral self-regulation, an internal locus of control, high self-esteem, lower stress levels, reduced affective empathy, robust family support, and decreased loneliness. Conversely, the poorly adapted profile exhibited the opposite traits. Machine learning pinpointed six key differentiating factors in various adaptation pathways within the same vulnerable context: high self-esteem, cognitive and behavioral self-regulation, low stress levels, higher education, and increased social support. Discussion: This research carries significant policy implications, highlighting the need to reinforce protective factors and psychological resources, such as self-esteem, self-regulation, and education, to foster effective adaptation in adversity. Additionally, we identified critical risk factors impacting social adaptation in vulnerable populations, advancing our understanding of this intricate phenomenon.

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Recent integrative multilevel models offer novel insights into the etiology and course of neurodegenerative conditions. The predictive coding of allostatic-interoception theory posits that the brain adapts to environmental demands by modulating internal bodily signals through the allostatic-interoceptive system. Specifically, a domain-general allostatic-interoceptive network exerts adaptive physiological control by fine-tuning initial top-down predictions and bottom-up peripheral signaling. In this context, adequate adaptation implies the minimization of prediction errors thereby optimizing energy expenditure. Abnormalities in top-down interoceptive predictions or peripheral signaling can trigger allostatic overload states, ultimately leading to dysregulated interoceptive and bodily systems (endocrine, immunological, circulatory, etc.). In this context, environmental stress, social determinants of health, and harmful exposomes (i.e., the cumulative life-course exposition to different environmental stressors) may interact with physiological and genetic factors, dysregulating allostatic interoception and precipitating neurodegenerative processes. We review the allostatic-interoceptive overload framework across different neurodegenerative diseases, particularly in the behavioral variant frontotemporal dementia (bvFTD). We describe how concepts of allostasis and interoception could be integrated with principles of predictive coding to explain how the brain optimizes adaptive responses, while maintaining physiological stability through feedback loops with multiple organismic systems. Then, we introduce the model of allostatic-interoceptive overload of bvFTD and discuss its implications for the understanding of pathophysiological and neurocognitive abnormalities in multiple neurodegenerative conditions.

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BACKGROUND: Children with congenital heart disease (CHD) are at high risk for hospital-associated venous thromboembolism (HA-VTE). The children's likelihood of thrombosis (CLOT) trial validated a real-time predictive model for HA-VTE using data extracted from the EHR for pediatric inpatients. We tested the hypothesis that addition of CHD specific data would improve model prediction in the CHD population. METHODS: Model performance in CHD patients from 2010 to 2022, was assessed using 3 iterations of the CLOT model: 1) the original CLOT model, 2) the original model refit using only data from the CHD cohort, and 3) the model updated with the addition of cardiopulmonary bypass time, STAT Mortality Category, height, and weight as covariates. The discrimination of the three models was quantified and compared using AUROC. RESULTS: Our CHD cohort included 1457 patient encounters (median 2.0 IQR [0.5-5.2] years-old). HA-VTE was present in 5% of our CHD cohort versus 1% in the general pediatric population. Several features from the original model were associated with thrombosis in the CHD cohort including younger age, thrombosis history, infectious disease consultation, and EHR coding of a central venous line. Lower height and weight were associated with thrombosis. HA-VTE rate was 12% (18/149) amongst those with STAT Category 4-5 operation versus 4% (49/1256) with STAT Category 1-3 operation (P < .001). Longer cardiopulmonary bypass time (124 [92-205] vs. 94 [65-136] minutes, P < .001) was associated with thrombosis. The AUROC for the original (0.80 95% CI [0.75-0.85]), refit (0.85 [0.81-0.89]), and updated (0.86 [0.81-0.90]) models demonstrated excellent discriminatory ability within the CHD cohort. CONCLUSION: The automated approach with EHR data extraction makes the applicability of such models appealing for ease of clinical use. The addition of cardiac specific features improved model discrimination; however, this benefit was marginal compared to refitting the original model to the CHD cohort. This suggests strong predictive generalized models, such as CLOT, can be optimized for cohort subsets without additional data extraction, thus reducing cost of model development and deployment.

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The use of e-scooters is rapidly increasing in cities, leading to their integration into the transportation system. However, numerous collisions involving e-scooters, including some resulting in fatalities, have been reported since their introduction. These incidents indicate that the potential dangers posed by e-scooters may be underestimated. Research suggests that a significant factor contributing to these collisions is the prevalence of illegal riding behaviour exhibited by many riders. This paper presents three studies that aimed to assess the understanding of e-scooter riders and non-riders of the current legislation across various riding scenarios and link it to their profile, riding habits, and their proneness to engage in illegal riding behaviours. Study 1 utilised questionnaires to survey participants and gather information about their profiles and self-reported illegal riding behaviour. Study 2 focused on assessing participants' knowledge of the current e-scooter legislation through different everyday riding scenarios. Study 3 featured short video clips from the rider's perspective to determine the proneness of participants to engage in illegal riding behaviour and explore the potential relationship between these behaviours and their understanding of e-scooter rules. The findings revealed that e-scooter riders were generally younger and exhibited a higher propensity for engaging in illegal riding behaviour than non-users. Both groups demonstrated limited knowledge regarding various aspects of the current e-scooter legislation, particularly related to parking, speeding, and designated infrastructure. While e-scooter riders demonstrated relatively greater knowledge of the e-scooter rules, this was not consistently observed across all areas, particularly in relation to riding on pavements (pedestrian footpaths). Furthermore, Study 3 revealed that participants with better knowledge of the current legislation were less likely to engage in illegal riding behaviour. These findings suggest a need for targeted interventions and educational campaigns to improve riders' understanding of regulations and promote safer riding practices. Implementing training programs for e-scooter safety could significantly enhance riders' awareness of the associated dangers, fostering responsible e-scooter use.

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STUDY OBJECTIVE: Explore validation of a model to predict patients' risk of failing extubation, to help providers make informed, data-driven decisions regarding the optimal timing of extubation. DESIGN: We performed temporal, geographic, and domain validations of a model for the risk of reintubation after cardiac surgery by assessing its performance on data sets from three academic medical centers, with temporal validation using data from the institution where the model was developed. SETTING: Three academic medical centers in the United States. PATIENTS: Adult patients arriving in the cardiac intensive care unit with an endotracheal tube in place after cardiac surgery. INTERVENTIONS: Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and concordance statistics were used as measures of discriminative ability, and calibration curves and Brier scores were used to assess the model's predictive ability. MEASUREMENTS: Temporal validation was performed in 1642 patients with a reintubation rate of 4.8%, with the model demonstrating strong discrimination (optimism-corrected c-statistic 0.77) and low predictive error (Brier score 0.044) but poor model precision and recall (Optimal F1 score 0.29). Combined domain and geographic validation were performed in 2041 patients with a reintubation rate of 1.5%. The model displayed solid discriminative ability (optimism-corrected c-statistic = 0.73) and low predictive error (Brier score = 0.0149) but low precision and recall (Optimal F1 score = 0.13). Geographic validation was performed in 2489 patients with a reintubation rate of 1.6%, with the model displaying good discrimination (optimism-corrected c-statistic = 0.71) and predictive error (Brier score = 0.0152) but poor precision and recall (Optimal F1 score = 0.13). MAIN RESULTS: The reintubation model displayed strong discriminative ability and low predictive error within each validation cohort. CONCLUSIONS: Future work is needed to explore how to optimize models before local implementation.

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Genomic and transcriptomic analysis has furthered our understanding of many tumors. Yet, thyroid cancer management is largely guided by staging and histology, with few molecular prognostic and treatment biomarkers. Here, we utilize a large cohort of 251 patients with 312 samples from two tertiary medical centers and perform DNA/RNA sequencing, spatial transcriptomics, and multiplex immunofluorescence to identify biomarkers of aggressive thyroid malignancy. We identify high-risk mutations and discover a unique molecular signature of aggressive disease, the Molecular Aggression and Prediction (MAP) score, which provides improved prognostication over high-risk mutations alone. The MAP score is enriched for genes involved in epithelial de-differentiation, cellular division, and the tumor microenvironment. The MAP score also identifies aggressive tumors with lymphocyte-rich stroma that may benefit from immunotherapy. Future clinical profiling of the stromal microenvironment of thyroid cancer could improve prognostication, inform immunotherapy, and support development of novel therapeutics for thyroid cancer and other stroma-rich tumors.

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Importance: Rates of hospital-acquired venous thromboembolism (HA-VTE) are increasing among pediatric patients. Identifying at-risk patients for whom prophylactic interventions should be considered remains challenging. Objective: To determine whether use of a previously validated HA-VTE prognostic model, together with pediatric hematologist review, could reduce pediatric inpatient rates of HA-VTE. Design, Setting, and Participants: This pragmatic randomized clinical trial was performed from November 2, 2020, through January 31, 2022, at a single-center academic children's hospital (Monroe Carell Jr Children's Hospital at Vanderbilt). All pediatric hospital admissions (aged <22 years) under inpatient status were included and randomized. Intervention: All patients had an HA-VTE probability automatically calculated daily, which was visible to the hematology research team for patients in the intervention group. Patients with an elevated risk (predicted probability ≥2.5%) underwent additional medical record review by the research team to determine eligibility for thromboprophylaxis. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was rate of HA-VTE. Secondary outcomes included rates of prophylactic anticoagulation and anticoagulation-associated bleeding events. Results: A total of 17 427 hospitalizations met eligibility criteria, were randomized, and were included in the primary analysis: patients had a median (IQR) age of 1.7 (0 to 11.1) years; there were 9143 (52.5%) female patients and 8284 (47.5%) male patients, and there were 445 (2.6%) Asian patients, 2739 (15.9%) Black patients, and 11 752 (67.4%) White patients. The 2 groups were evenly balanced in number (8717 in the intervention group and 8710 in the control group) and patient characteristics. A total of 58 patients (0.7%) in the control group and 77 (0.9%) in the intervention group developed HA-VTE (risk difference: 2.2 per 1000 patients; 95% CI, -0.4 to 4.8 per 1000 patients; P = .10). Recommendations to initiate thromboprophylaxis were accepted by primary clinical teams 25.8% of the time (74 of 287 hospitalizations). Minor bleeding events were rare among patients who received anticoagulation (3 of 74 [4.1%]), and no major bleeding events were observed during the study period. Among patients randomized to the control group, the model exhibited high discrimination accuracy (C statistic, 0.799, 95% CI, 0.725 to 0.856). Conclusions and Relevance: In this randomized clinical trial of the use of a HA-VTE prognostic model to reduce pediatric inpatient rates of HA-VTE, despite the use of an accurate and validated prognostic model for HA-VTE, there was substantial reluctance by primary clinical teams to initiate thromboprophylaxis as recommended. In this context, rates of HA-VTE between the control and intervention groups were not different. Future research is needed to identify improved strategies for prevention of HA-VTE and to overcome clinician concerns regarding thromboprophylaxis. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT04574895.

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Social adaptation arises from the interaction between the individual and the social environment. However, little empirical evidence exists regarding the relationship between social contact and social adaptation. We propose that loneliness and social networks are key factors explaining social adaptation. Sixty-four healthy subjects with no history of psychiatric conditions participated in this study. All participants completed self-report questionnaires about loneliness, social network, and social adaptation. On a separate day, subjects underwent a resting state fMRI recording session. A hierarchical regression model on self-report data revealed that loneliness and social network were negatively and positively associated with social adaptation. Functional connectivity (FC) analysis showed that loneliness was associated with decreased FC between the fronto-amygdalar and fronto-parietal regions. In contrast, the social network was positively associated with FC between the fronto-temporo-parietal network. Finally, an integrative path model examined the combined effects of behavioral and brain predictors of social adaptation. The model revealed that social networks mediated the effects of loneliness on social adaptation. Further, loneliness-related abnormal brain FC (previously shown to be associated with difficulties in cognitive control, emotion regulation, and sociocognitive processes) emerged as the strongest predictor of poor social adaptation. Findings offer insights into the brain indicators of social adaptation and highlight the role of social networks as a buffer against the maladaptive effects of loneliness. These findings can inform interventions aimed at minimizing loneliness and promoting social adaptation and are especially relevant due to the high prevalence of loneliness around the globe. These findings also serve the study of social adaptation since they provide potential neurocognitive factors that could influence social adaptation.

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Introduction: Harmonization protocols that address batch effects and cross-site methodological differences in multi-center studies are critical for strengthening electroencephalography (EEG) signatures of functional connectivity (FC) as potential dementia biomarkers. Methods: We implemented an automatic processing pipeline incorporating electrode layout integrations, patient-control normalizations, and multi-metric EEG source space connectomics analyses. Results: Spline interpolations of EEG signals onto a head mesh model with 6067 virtual electrodes resulted in an effective method for integrating electrode layouts. Z-score transformations of EEG time series resulted in source space connectivity matrices with high bilateral symmetry, reinforced long-range connections, and diminished short-range functional interactions. A composite FC metric allowed for accurate multicentric classifications of Alzheimer's disease and behavioral variant frontotemporal dementia. Discussion: Harmonized multi-metric analysis of EEG source space connectivity can address data heterogeneities in multi-centric studies, representing a powerful tool for accurately characterizing dementia.

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Introduction: Early detection of depression is a cost-effective way to prevent adverse outcomes on brain physiology, cognition, and health. Here we propose that loneliness and social adaptation are key factors that can anticipate depressive symptoms. Methods: We analyzed data from two separate samples to evaluate the associations between loneliness, social adaptation, depressive symptoms, and their neural correlates. Results: For both samples, hierarchical regression models on self-reported data showed that loneliness and social adaptation have negative and positive effects on depressive symptoms. Moreover, social adaptation reduces the impact of loneliness on depressive symptoms. Structural connectivity analysis showed that depressive symptoms, loneliness, and social adaptation share a common neural substrate. Furthermore, functional connectivity analysis demonstrated that only social adaptation was associated with connectivity in parietal areas. Discussion: Altogether, our results suggest that loneliness is a strong risk factor for depressive symptoms while social adaptation acts as a buffer against the ill effects of loneliness. At the neuroanatomical level, loneliness and depression may affect the integrity of white matter structures known to be associated to emotion dysregulation and cognitive impairment. On the other hand, socio-adaptive processes may protect against the harmful effects of loneliness and depression. Structural and functional correlates of social adaptation could indicate a protective role through long and short-term effects, respectively. These findings may aid approaches to preserve brain health via social participation and adaptive social behavior.

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INTRODUCTION: Heated, humidified, high-flow nasal cannula oxygen therapy has been used as a therapy for hypoxic respiratory failure in numerous clinical settings. To date, limited data exist to guide appropriate use following cardiac surgery, particularly among patients at risk for experiencing reintubation. We hypothesised that postextubation treatment with high-flow nasal cannula would decrease the all-cause reintubation rate within the 48 hours following initial extubation, compared with usual care. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Adult patients undergoing cardiac surgery (open surgery on the heart or thoracic aorta) will be automatically enrolled, randomised and allocated to one of two treatment arms in a pragmatic randomised controlled trial at the time of initial extubation. The two treatment arms are administration of heated, humidified, high-flow nasal cannula oxygen postextubation and usual care (treatment at the discretion of the treating provider). The primary outcome will be all-cause reintubation within 48 hours of initial extubation. Secondary outcomes include all-cause 30-day mortality, hospital length of stay, intensive care unit length of stay and ventilator-free days. Interaction analyses will be conducted to assess the differential impact of the intervention within strata of predicted risk of reintubation, calculated according to our previously published and validated prognostic model. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Vanderbilt University Medical Center IRB approval, 15 March 2021 with waiver of written informed consent. Plan for publication of study protocol prior to study completion, as well as publication of results. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: clinicaltrials.gov, NCT04782817 submitted 25 February 2021. DATE OF PROTOCOL: 29 August 2022. Version 2.0.

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BACKGROUND: Pediatric patients have increasing rates of hospital-associated venous thromboembolism (HA-VTE), and while several risk-prediction models have been developed, few are designed to assess all general pediatric patients, and none has been shown to improve patient outcomes when implemented in routine clinical care. METHODS: The Children's Likelihood Of Thrombosis (CLOT) trial is an ongoing pragmatic randomized trial being conducted starting November 2, 2020, in the inpatient units at Monroe Carell Jr. Children's Hospital at Vanderbilt in Nashville, TN, USA. All admitted patients who are 21 years of age and younger are automatically enrolled in the trial and randomly assigned to receive either the current standard-of-care anticoagulation practice or the study intervention. Patients randomized to the intervention arm are assigned an HA-VTE risk probability that is calculated from a validated VTE risk-prediction model; the model is updated daily with the most recent clinical information. Patients in the intervention arm with elevated risk (predicted probability of HA-VTE ≥ 0.025) have an additional review of their clinical course by a team of dedicated hematologists, who make recommendations including pharmacologic prophylaxis with anticoagulation, if appropriate. The anticipated enrollment is approximately 15,000 patients. The primary outcome is the occurrence of HA-VTE. Secondary outcomes include initiation of anticoagulation, reasons for not initiating anticoagulation among patients for whom it was recommended, and adverse bleeding events. Subgroup analyses will be conducted among patients with elevated HA-VTE risk. DISCUSSION: This ongoing pragmatic randomized trial will provide a prospective assessment of a pediatric risk-prediction tool used to identify hospitalized patients at elevated risk of developing HA-VTE.  TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04574895. Registered on September 28, 2020. Date of first patient enrollment: November 2, 2020.

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CONTEXT: The optimal strategy for implementing mortality-predicting algorithms to facilitate clinical care, prognostic discussions, and palliative care interventions remains unknown. OBJECTIVES: To develop and validate a real-time predictive model for 180 day mortality using routinely available clinical and laboratory admission data and determine if palliative care exposure varies with predicted mortality risk. METHODS: Adult admissions between October 1, 2013 and October.1, 2017 were included for the model derivation. A separate cohort was collected between January 1, 2018 and July 31, 2020 for validation. Patients were followed for 180 days from discharge, and logistic regression with selected variables was used to estimate patients' risk for mortality. RESULTS: In the model derivation cohort, 7963 events of 180 day mortality (4.5% event rate) were observed. Median age was 53.0 (IQR 24.0-66.0) with 92,734 females (52.5%). Variables with strongest association with 180 day mortality included: Braden Score (OR 0.83; 95% CI 0.82-0.84); admission Do Not Resuscitate orders (OR 2.61; 95% CI 2.43-2.79); admission service and admission status. The model yielded excellent discriminatory ability in both the derivation (c-statistic 0.873; 95% CI 0.870-0.877; Brier score 0.04) and validation cohorts (c-statistic 0.844; 95% CI 0.840-0.847; Brier score 0.072). Inpatient palliative care consultations increased from 3% of minimal-risk encounters to 41% of high-risk encounters (P < 0.01). CONCLUSION: We developed and temporally validated a predictive mortality model for adults from a large retrospective cohort, which helps quantify the potential need for palliative care referrals based on risk strata. Machine learning algorithms for mortality require clinical interpretation, and additional studies are needed to design patient-centered and risk-specific interventions.

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BACKGROUND: Reintubation and prolonged intubation after cardiac surgery are associated with significant complications. Despite these competing risks, providers frequently extubate patients with limited insight into the risk of reintubation at the time of extubation. Achieving timely, successful extubation remains a significant clinical challenge. METHODS: Based on an analysis of 2835 patients undergoing cardiac surgery at our institution between November 2017 and July 2020, we developed a model for an individual's risk of reintubation at the time of extubation. Predictors were screened for inclusion in the model based on clinical plausibility and availability at the time of extubation. Rigorous data reduction methods were used to create a model that could be easily integrated into clinical workflow at the time of extubation. RESULTS: In total, 90 patients (3.2%) were reintubated within 48 hours of initial extubation. Number of inotropes (1 [adjusted odds ratio (OR), 15.4; 95% confidence interval (CI) 6.5-47.6; P < .001], ≥2 [OR, 62.7; 95% CI 14.3-279.5; P < .001]); dexmedetomidine dose (OR, 3.0 [per µg/kg/h]; 95% CI 1.9-4.7; P < .001), time to extubation (OR, 1.04 [per 6-hour increase]; 95% CI 1.02-1.05; P < .001), and respiratory rate (OR, 1.04 [per breath/min]; 95% CI 1.01-1.07; P < .001) were the best predictors for the model, which displayed excellent discriminative capacity (area under the receiver operating characteristic, 0.86; 95% CI 0.84-0.89). CONCLUSIONS: An improved understanding of reintubation risk may lead to improved decision-making at extubation and targeted interventions to decrease reintubation in high-risk patients. Future studies are needed to optimize timing of extubation.

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BACKGROUND: Financial incentives may aid recruitment to clinical trials, but evidence regarding risk/burden-driven variability in participant preferences for incentives is limited. We developed and tested a framework to support real-world decisions on recruitment budget. METHODS: We included two phases: an Anchoring Survey, to ensure we could capture perceived unpleasantness on a range of life events, and a Vignette Experiment, to explore relationships between financial incentives and participants' perceived risk/burden and willingness to participate in high- and low-risk/burden versions of five vignettes drawn from common research activities. We compared vignette ratings to identify similarly rated life events from the Anchoring Survey to contextualize ratings of study risk. RESULTS: In our Anchoring Survey (n = 643), mean ratings (scale 1 = lowest risk/burden to 5 = highest risk/burden) indicated that the questions made sense to participants, with highest risk assigned to losing house in a fire (4.72), and lowest risk assigned to having blood pressure taken (1.13). In the Vignette Experiment (n = 534), logistic regression indicated that amount of offered financial incentive and perceived risk/burden level were the top two drivers of willingness to participate in four of the five vignettes. Comparison of event ratings in the Anchoring Survey with the Vignette Experiment ratings suggested reasonable concordance on severity of risk/burden. CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrated feasibility of a framework for assessing participant perceptions of risk for study activities and discerned directionality of relationship between financial incentives and willingness to participate. Future work will explore use of this framework as an evidence-gathering approach for gauging appropriate incentives in real-world study contexts.

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