RESUMEN
Pakistan is among the South Asian countries mostly vulnerable to the negative health impacts of air pollution. In this context, the study aimed to analyze the spatiotemporal patterns of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) incidence and its relationship with air pollutants including aerosol absorbing index (AAI), carbon monoxide, sulfur dioxide (SO2), and nitrogen dioxide. Spatial scan statistics were employed to identify temporal, spatial, and spatiotemporal clusters of COPD. Generalized linear regression (GLR) and random forest (RF) models were utilized to evaluate the linear and non-linear relationships between COPD and air pollutants for the years 2019 and 2020. The findings revealed three spatial clusters of COPD in the eastern and central regions, with a high-risk spatiotemporal cluster in the east. The GLR identified a weak linear relationship between the COPD and air pollutants with R2 = 0.1 and weak autocorrelation with Moran's index = -0.09. The spatial outcome of RF model provided more accurate COPD predictions with improved R2 of 0.8 and 0.9 in the respective years and a very low Moran's I = -0.02 showing a random residual distribution. The RF findings also suggested AAI and SO2 to be the most contributing predictors for the year 2019 and 2020. Hence, the strong association of COPD clusters with some air pollutants highlight the urgency of comprehensive measures to combat air pollution in the region to avoid future health risks.
Asunto(s)
Contaminantes Atmosféricos , Contaminación del Aire , Enfermedad Pulmonar Obstructiva Crónica , Dióxido de Azufre , Pakistán/epidemiología , Enfermedad Pulmonar Obstructiva Crónica/epidemiología , Contaminantes Atmosféricos/análisis , Humanos , Contaminación del Aire/estadística & datos numéricos , Dióxido de Azufre/análisis , Monitoreo del Ambiente , Dióxido de Nitrógeno/análisis , Monóxido de Carbono/análisis , Análisis Espacio-TemporalRESUMEN
A vector-borne disease of concern for global public health, dengue fever has been spreading its endemicity and several cases in recent years, particularly in Lahore Pakistan. Dengue transmission is influenced by geo-climatic conditions. This study aimed to map the spatial prevalence of dengue fever in Lahore and its association with geo-climatic factors during the epidemic of the year 2021. In this study, geo-climatic factors that could potentially encourage the growth of the virus are chosen for this study, and their temporal and spatial changeability relate to dengue cases. The objective of this study is to use meteorological, satellite data and Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques to map dengue outbreaks and identify the risk-prone areas by relating geo-climatic factors with dengue outbreaks. The dengue patients and their locations data were collected from the Directorate General of Health Services (DGHS) Lahore. This study uses Google Earth and Landsat-8 OLI/TIRs images to extract geo-climatic and land use parameters. The dot density maps technique was used to represent the spatiotemporal distribution of dengue cases. The hotspot analysis was applied to show the hotspots of dengue cases in district Lahore at the Union Council (UC) level. The Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Normalised Difference Water Index (NDWI), built-up area, population density, precipitation, and Land Surface Temperature (LST) are the factors employed. In this study, correlation was performed to test the significance between precipitation and the prevalence of dengue fever in Lahore. The results show that the incidence and prevalence of dengue fever month-wise at the UC level in Lahore. The distribution pattern of dengue outbreaks in the Lahore area and its demographic factors were found to be associated. It concludes that the increase in the spread of dengue fever is associated with the monsoon rains. The prevalence of dengue is associated with water bodies and high land surface temperature, but it does not represent any significant relation with vegetation cover and land use in Lahore during the year 2021. The study pinpointed the locations that are most susceptible and require care to prevent such outbreaks in the future.