RESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Hepatitis A is responsible for 126,000,000 cases of acute viral hepatitis distributed heterogeneously worldwide, with a high disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rate, especially in low-income countries. Data related to Hepatitis A provides information to improve control measures and identify the population at risk. This study aims to analyze temporal trends of Hepatitis A in Brazil and its regions from 2007 to 2018, based on official notification data. METHODS: Data related to Hepatitis A reported cases from 2007 to 2018 were fitted to a joinpoint model by Brazilian regions, age groups, and gender, allowing the calculation of average annual percentage change (AAPC) and annual percentage change (APC) to estimate trends of Hepatitis A in Brazil. FINDINGS: From 2007 to 2018, 65,284 Hepatitis A cases notified in Brazil were available for analysis. The Northeast Region reported 18,732 (28.69%) cases, followed by the North Region reporting 18,430 (28.23%), the Southeast Region reporting 14,073 (21.55%), the South Region reporting 7909 (12.11%), and the Central-West Region reporting 6140 (9.4%), respectively. Temporal trend analysis showed that Hepatitis A incidence decreased from 2007 to 2016 in all Brazilian regions for individuals less than 20 years old, but increased in the South and Southeast males between 10 and 39 years after 2016. CONCLUSIONS: Hepatitis A endemicity is heterogeneous among Brazilian regions. In addition, an unexpected outbreak of HAV among Southeast and South adult males in 2016 resembles the outbreak in Europe, revealing a vulnerable population that should be prioritized by vaccination programs and control measures.
Asunto(s)
Hepatitis A , Adulto , Masculino , Humanos , Adulto Joven , Hepatitis A/epidemiología , Brasil/epidemiología , Brotes de Enfermedades , Incidencia , Europa (Continente)RESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Burden disease related to chronic HBV infection is increasing worldwide. Monitoring Hepatitis B occurrence is difficult due to intrinsic characteristics of the infection, nonetheless analyzing this information improves strategic planning towards reducing the burden related to chronic infection. In this line of thought, this study aims to analyze national and regional epidemiology of Hepatitis B and it's temporal trends based on Brazilian reported cases. METHODS: Data obtained from the Brazilian National Notifiable Disease Reporting System (SINAN) from 2007 to 2018 were classified by infection status with an original classification algorithm, had their temporal trends analyzed by Joinpoint regression model and were correlated with gender, age and region. RESULTS: Of the 487,180 hepatitis B cases notified to SINAN, 97.65% had it infection status correctly classified by the new algorithm. Hepatitis B detection rate, gender and age-distribution were different among Brazilian regions. Overall, detection rates remained stable from 2007 to 2018, achieving their maximal value (56.1 cases per 100,000 inhabitants) in North region. However, there were different temporal trends related to different hepatitis B status and age. Women mean age at notification were always inferior to those of men and the difference was higher in Central-West, North and Northeast regions. CONCLUSION: Hepatitis B affects heterogeneously different populations throughout Brazilian territory. The differences shown in its temporal trends, regional, gender and age-related distribution helps the planning and evaluation of control measures in Brazil.
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Hepatitis B , Distribución por Edad , Brasil/epidemiología , Femenino , Hepatitis B/epidemiología , Humanos , MasculinoRESUMEN
Several studies of patients with COVID-19 have evaluated biological markers for predicting outcomes, most of them retrospectively and with a wide scope of clinical severity. We followed a prospective cohort of patients admitted in hospital wards with moderate COVID-19 disease, including those with a history of kidney transplantation, and examined the ability of changes in routine hematologic laboratory parameters to predict and mirror the patients' clinical course regarding the severity of their condition (classified as critical vs. non-critical) and in-hospital mortality or hospital discharge. Among the 68 patients, 20 (29%) were kidney transplanted patients (KT), and they had much higher mortality than non-kidney transplanted patients in this cohort (40% X 8.3%). Lymphocytes, neutrophils and neutrophils/lymphocytes ratio (NLR) at admission and platelets as well as the red blood cells parameters hemoglobin, hematocrit, and RDW by the time of hospital discharge or death clearly differentiated patients progressing to critical disease and those with clinical recovery. Patients with deteriorating clinical courses presented elevated and similar NLRs during the first week of hospitalization. However, they were dramatically different at hospital discharge, with a decrease in the survivors (NLR around 5.5) and sustained elevation in non-survivors (NLR around 21). Platelets also could distinguish survivors from non-survivors among the critical patients. In conclusion, routine hematologic tests are useful to monitor the clinical course of COVID-19 patients admitted with moderate disease. Unexpectedly, changes in hematologic tests, including lymphopenia, were not predictive of complicated outcomes among KT recipients.
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Biomarcadores/sangre , Células Sanguíneas/patología , COVID-19/mortalidad , Trasplante de Riñón/efectos adversos , Adulto , Anciano , Femenino , Humanos , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Pronóstico , Estudios ProspectivosAsunto(s)
COVID-19 , Pandemias , Aniversarios y Eventos Especiales , Brasil/epidemiología , Humanos , SARS-CoV-2RESUMEN
Since the beginning of the pandemic of COVID-19, there has been a widespread assumption that most infected persons are asymptomatic. Using data from the recent wave of the EPICOVID19 study, a nationwide household-based survey including 133 cities from all states of Brazil, we estimated the proportion of people with and without antibodies for SARS-CoV-2 who were asymptomatic, which symptoms were most frequently reported, number of symptoms and the association with socio-demographic characteristics. We tested 33,205 subjects using a rapid antibody test previously validated. Information was collected before participants received the test result. Out of 849 (2.7%) participants positive for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies, only 12.1% (95% CI 10.1-14.5) reported no symptoms, compared to 42.2% (95% CI 41.7-42.8) among those negative. The largest difference between the two groups was observed for changes in smell/taste (56.5% versus 9.1%, a 6.2-fold difference). Changes in smell/taste, fever and body aches were most likely to predict positive tests as suggested by recursive partitioning tree analysis. Among individuals without any of these three symptoms, only 0.8% tested positive, compared to 18.3% of those with both fever and changes in smell or taste. Most subjects with antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 are symptomatic, even though most present only mild symptoms.
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Anticuerpos Antivirales/sangre , COVID-19 , Portador Sano/inmunología , Inmunoglobulina G/sangre , Inmunoglobulina M/sangre , Adolescente , Adulto , Anciano , Brasil/epidemiología , COVID-19/epidemiología , COVID-19/inmunología , Niño , Preescolar , Femenino , Humanos , Lactante , Recién Nacido , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Prevalencia , Estudios Seroepidemiológicos , Adulto JovenRESUMEN
Objectives. To evaluate the spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) over 6 months in the Brazilian State of Rio Grande do Sul (population 11.3 million), based on 8 serological surveys. Methods. In each survey, 4151 participants in round 1 and 4460 participants in round 2 were randomly sampled from all state regions. We assessed presence of antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 using a validated lateral flow point-of-care test; we adjusted figures for the time-dependent decay of antibodies. Results. The SARS-CoV-2 antibody prevalence increased from 0.03% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.00%, 0.34%; 1 in every 3333 individuals) in mid-April to 1.89% (95% CI = 1.36%, 2.54%; 1 in every 53 individuals) in early September. Prevalence was similar across gender and skin color categories. Older adults were less likely to be infected than younger participants. The proportion of the population who reported leaving home daily increased from 21.4% (95% CI = 20.2%, 22.7%) to 33.2% (95% CI = 31.8%, 34.5%). Conclusions. SARS-CoV-2 infection increased slowly during the first 6 months in the state, differently from what was observed in other Brazilian regions. Future survey rounds will continue to document the spread of the pandemic.
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Prueba de COVID-19/estadística & datos numéricos , COVID-19/diagnóstico , COVID-19/epidemiología , Adolescente , Adulto , Anciano , Anciano de 80 o más Años , Brasil/epidemiología , Niño , Preescolar , Femenino , Humanos , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Prevalencia , Vigilancia de Guardia , Estudios Seroepidemiológicos , Clase Social , Adulto JovenRESUMEN
In this paper, we study a single serotype transmission model of dengue to determine the optimal vaccination age for Dengvaxia. The transmission dynamics are modelled with an age-dependent force of infection. The force of infection for each serotype is derived from the serological profile of dengue in Brazil without serotype distinction and from serotype-specific reported cases. The risk due to an infection is measured by the probability of requiring hospitalization based on Brazilian Ministry of Health data. The optimal vaccination age is determined for any number and combination of the four distinct dengue virus serotypes DENv1-4. The lifetime expected risk is adapted to include antibody dependent enhancement (ADE) and permanent cross-immunity after two heterologous infections. The risk is assumed to be serostatus-dependent. The optimal vaccination age is computed for constant, serostatus-specific vaccine efficacies. Additionally, the vaccination age is restricted to conform to the licence of Dengvaxia in Brazil and the achievable and minimal lifetime expected risks are compared. The optimal vaccination age obtained for the risk of hospitalization varies significantly with the assumptions relating to ADE and cross-immunity. Risk-free primary infections lead to higher optimal vaccination ages, as do asymptomatic third and fourth infections. Sometimes vaccination is not recommended at all, e.g. for any endemic area with a single serotype if primary infections are risk-free. Restricting the vaccination age to Dengvaxia licensed ages mostly leads to only a slightly higher lifetime expected risk and the vaccine should be administered as close as possible to the optimal vaccination age.
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Vacunas contra el Dengue/administración & dosificación , Virus del Dengue/clasificación , Virus del Dengue/inmunología , Dengue/prevención & control , Aedes/virología , Factores de Edad , Animales , Anticuerpos Antivirales/sangre , Brasil/epidemiología , Dengue/epidemiología , Dengue/transmisión , Enfermedades Endémicas/prevención & control , Enfermedades Endémicas/estadística & datos numéricos , Femenino , Humanos , Inmunidad Materno-Adquirida , Masculino , Conceptos Matemáticos , Modelos Biológicos , Mosquitos Vectores/virología , Factores de Riesgo , Serogrupo , Vacunación/estadística & datos numéricosRESUMEN
The first case of COVID-19 was reported in China in December 2019, and, as the virus has spread worldwide, the World Health Organization declared it a pandemic. Estimates on the number of COVID-19 cases do not reflect it real magnitude as testing is limited. Population based data on the proportion of the population with antibodies is relevant for planning public health policies. We aim to assess the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies, presence of signs and symptoms of COVID-19, and adherence to isolation measures. A random sample comprising 133 sentinel cities from all states of the country will be selected. Three serological surveys, three weeks apart, will be conducted. The most populous municipality in each intermediate region of the country, defined by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics, was chosen as sentinel city. In each city, 25 census tracts will be selected, and 10 households will be systematically sampled in each tract, totaling 33,250 participants. In each household, one inhabitant will be randomly selected to be interviewed and tested for antibodies against SARS-CoV-2, using WONDFO SARS-CoV-2 Antibody Test. By evaluating a representative sample of Brazilian sentinel sites, this study will provide essential information for the design of health policies.
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Betacoronavirus/aislamiento & purificación , Técnicas de Laboratorio Clínico , Infecciones por Coronavirus/epidemiología , Neumonía Viral/epidemiología , Salud Pública , Anticuerpos Antivirales/sangre , Betacoronavirus/inmunología , Brasil/epidemiología , COVID-19 , Prueba de COVID-19 , Infecciones por Coronavirus/diagnóstico , Política de Salud , Humanos , Pandemias , Neumonía Viral/diagnóstico , Prevalencia , SARS-CoV-2 , Pruebas SerológicasRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Population-based data on COVID-19 are essential for guiding policies. There are few such studies, particularly from low or middle-income countries. Brazil is currently a hotspot for COVID-19 globally. We aimed to investigate severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) antibody prevalence by city and according to sex, age, ethnicity group, and socioeconomic status, and compare seroprevalence estimates with official statistics on deaths and cases. METHODS: In this repeated cross-sectional study, we did two seroprevalence surveys in 133 sentinel cities in all Brazilian states. We randomly selected households and randomly selected one individual from all household members. We excluded children younger than 1 year. Presence of antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 was assessed using a lateral flow point-of-care test, the WONDFO SARS-CoV-2 Antibody Test (Wondfo Biotech, Guangzhou, China), using two drops of blood from finger prick samples. This lateral-flow assay detects IgG and IgM isotypes that are specific to the SARS-CoV-2 receptor binding domain of the spike protein. Participants also answered short questionnaires on sociodemographic information (sex, age, education, ethnicity, household size, and household assets) and compliance with physical distancing measures. FINDINGS: We included 25â025 participants in the first survey (May 14-21) and 31â165 in the second (June 4-7). For the 83 (62%) cities with sample sizes of more than 200 participants in both surveys, the pooled seroprevalence increased from 1·9% (95% CI 1·7-2·1) to 3·1% (2·8-3·4). City-level prevalence ranged from 0% to 25·4% in both surveys. 11 (69%) of 16 cities with prevalence above 2·0% in the first survey were located in a stretch along a 2000 km of the Amazon river in the northern region. In the second survey, we found 34 cities with prevalence above 2·0%, which included the same 11 Amazon cities plus 14 from the northeast region, where prevalence was increasing rapidly. Prevalence levels were lower in the south and centre-west, and intermediate in the southeast, where the highest level was found in Rio de Janeiro (7·5% [4·2-12·2]). In the second survey, prevalence was similar in men and women, but an increased prevalence was observed in participants aged 20-59 years and those living in crowded conditions (4·4% [3·5-5·6] for those living with households with six or more people). Prevalence among Indigenous people was 6·4% (4·1-9·4) compared with 1·4% (1·2-1·7) among White people. Prevalence in the poorest socioeconomic quintile was 3·7% (3·2-4·3) compared with 1·7% (1·4-2·2) in the wealthiest quintile. INTERPRETATION: Antibody prevalence was highly heterogeneous by country region, with rapid initial escalation in Brazil's north and northeast. Prevalence is strongly associated with Indigenous ancestry and low socioeconomic status. These population subgroups are unlikely to be protected if the policy response to the pandemic by the national government continues to downplay scientific evidence. FUNDING: Brazilian Ministry of Health, Instituto Serrapilheira, Brazilian Collective Health Association, and the JBS Fazer o Bem Faz Bem.
Asunto(s)
Anticuerpos Antivirales/sangre , Betacoronavirus/inmunología , Infecciones por Coronavirus/sangre , Infecciones por Coronavirus/epidemiología , Neumonía Viral/sangre , Neumonía Viral/epidemiología , Adolescente , Adulto , Anciano , Anciano de 80 o más Años , Brasil/epidemiología , COVID-19 , Niño , Preescolar , Infecciones por Coronavirus/etnología , Estudios Transversales , Etnicidad/estadística & datos numéricos , Composición Familiar , Femenino , Humanos , Lactante , Recién Nacido , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Pandemias , Neumonía Viral/etnología , Prevalencia , SARS-CoV-2 , Estudios Seroepidemiológicos , Clase Social , Encuestas y Cuestionarios , Adulto JovenRESUMEN
OBJECTIVE To describe social distancing practices in nine municipalities of the state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, stratified by gender, age, and educational attainment. METHODS Two sequential cross-sectional studies were conducted in the municipalities of Canoas, Caxias do Sul, Ijuí, Passo Fundo, Pelotas, Porto Alegre, Santa Cruz do Sul, Santa Maria, and Uruguaiana to estimate the population prevalence of COVID-19. The study was designed to be representative of the urban population of these municipalities. A questionnaire including three questions about social distancing was also administered to the participants. Here, we present descriptive analyses of social distancing practices by subgroups and use chi-square tests for comparisons. RESULTS In terms of degree of social distancing, 25.8% of the interviewees reported being essentially isolated and 41.1% reported being quite isolated. 20.1% of respondents reported staying at home all the time, while 44.5% left only for essential activities. More than half of households reported receiving no visits from non-residents. Adults aged 20 to 59 reported the least social distancing, while more than 80% of participants aged 60 years or older reported being essentially isolated or quite isolated. Women reported more stringent distancing than men. Groups with higher educational attainment reported going out for daily activities more frequently. CONCLUSIONS The extremes of age are more protected by social distancing, but some groups remain highly exposed. This can be an important limiting factor in controlling progression of the COVID-19 pandemic.
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Control de Enfermedades Transmisibles/estadística & datos numéricos , Infecciones por Coronavirus/prevención & control , Pandemias/prevención & control , Neumonía Viral/prevención & control , Aislamiento Social , Adulto , Betacoronavirus , Brasil , COVID-19 , Ciudades , Estudios Transversales , Femenino , Humanos , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , SARS-CoV-2 , Adulto JovenRESUMEN
Population-based data on COVID-19 are urgently needed. We report on three rounds of probability sample household surveys in the state of Rio Grande do Sul (Brazil), carried out in nine large municipalities using the Wondfo lateral flow point-of-care test for immunoglobulin M and G antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 (https://en.wondfo.com.cn/product/wondfo-sars-cov-2-antibody-test-lateral-flow-method-2/). Before survey use, the assay underwent four validation studies with pooled estimates of sensitivity (84.8%; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 81.4-87.8%) and specificity (99.0%; 95% CI = 97.8-99.7%). We calculated that the seroprevalence was 0.048% (2/4,151; 95% CI = 0.006-0.174) on 11-13 April (round 1), 0.135% (6/4,460; 95% CI = 0.049-0.293%) on 25-27 April (round 2) and 0.222% (10/4,500; 95% CI = 0.107-0.408) on 9-11 May (round 3), with a significant upward trend over the course of the surveys. Of 37 family members of positive individuals, 17 (35%) were also positive. The epidemic is at an early stage in the state, and there is high compliance with social distancing, unlike in other parts of Brazil. Periodic survey rounds will continue to monitor trends until at least the end of September, and our population-based data will inform decisions on preventive policies and health system preparedness at the state level.
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Anticuerpos Antivirales/sangre , Infecciones por Coronavirus/sangre , Infecciones por Coronavirus/epidemiología , Inmunoglobulina M/sangre , Neumonía Viral/sangre , Neumonía Viral/epidemiología , Adolescente , Adulto , Anciano , Anciano de 80 o más Años , Anticuerpos Antivirales/inmunología , Betacoronavirus/inmunología , Betacoronavirus/patogenicidad , Brasil/epidemiología , COVID-19 , Niño , Preescolar , Infecciones por Coronavirus/inmunología , Femenino , Humanos , Inmunoglobulina M/inmunología , Lactante , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Pandemias , Neumonía Viral/inmunología , SARS-CoV-2 , Estudios Seroepidemiológicos , Adulto JovenRESUMEN
COVID-19, the disease produced by the virus SARS-CoV-2, has spread quickly throughout the world, leading the World Health Organization to first classify it as an international health emergency and, subsequently, declaring it pandemic. The number of confirmed cases, as April 11, surpassed 1,700,000, but this figure does not reflect the prevalence of COVID-19 in the population as, in many countries, tests are almost exclusively performed in people with symptoms, particularly severe cases. To properly assess the magnitude of the problem and to contribute to the design of evidence-based policies for fighting COVID-19, one must accurately estimate the population prevalence of infection. Our study is aimed at estimating the prevalence of infected individuals in the state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, to document how fast the infection spreads, and to estimate the proportion of infected persons who present or presented symptoms, as well as the proportion of asymptomatic infections. Four repeated serological surveys will be conducted in probability samples of nine sentinel cities every two weeks. Tests will be performed in 4,500 participants in each survey, totaling18,000 interviews. Interviews and tests will be conducted at the participants' household. A rapid test for the detection of antibodies will be used; the test was validated prior to the beginning of the fieldwork.
A COVID-19 é uma doença produzida pelo vírus SARS-CoV-2. Esse vírus se espalhou rapidamente pelo mundo, o que levou a Organização Mundial da Saúde a classificar a COVID-19 como uma emergência de saúde internacional e, posteriormente, a declará-la uma pandemia. O número de casos confirmados, no dia 11 de abril de 2020, já passa de 1.700.000, porém esses dados não refletem a real prevalência de COVID-19 na população, visto que, em muitos países, os testes são quase que exclusivamente realizados em pessoas com sintomas, especialmente os mais graves. Para definir políticas de enfrentamento, é essencial dispor de dados sobre a prevalência real de infecção na população. Este estudo tem por objetivos avaliar a proporção de indivíduos já infectados pelo SARS-CoV-2 no Rio Grande do Sul, Brasil, analisar a velocidade de expansão da infecção e estimar o percentual de infectados com e sem sintomas. Serão realizados quatro inquéritos sorológicos repetidos a cada 15 dias, com amostragem probabilística de nove cidades sentinela, em todas as sub-regiões do Estado. As entrevistas e testes ocorrerão no âmbito domiciliar. Serão utilizados testes rápidos para detecção de anticorpos, validados previamente ao início da coleta de dados.
Asunto(s)
Infecciones Asintomáticas/epidemiología , Betacoronavirus , Técnicas de Laboratorio Clínico/estadística & datos numéricos , Infecciones por Coronavirus/epidemiología , Pandemias , Neumonía Viral/epidemiología , Vigilancia de Guardia , Anticuerpos Antivirales/sangre , Betacoronavirus/inmunología , Brasil/epidemiología , COVID-19 , Prueba de COVID-19 , Técnicas de Laboratorio Clínico/ética , Técnicas de Laboratorio Clínico/métodos , Infecciones por Coronavirus/diagnóstico , Infecciones por Coronavirus/transmisión , Humanos , Neumonía Viral/transmisión , Prevalencia , SARS-CoV-2 , Factores de TiempoRESUMEN
In this paper we introduce a single serotype transmission model, including an age-dependent mosquito biting rate, to find the optimal vaccination age against dengue in Brazil with Dengvaxia. The optimal vaccination age and minimal lifetime expected risk of hospitalisation are found by adapting a method due to Hethcote (Math Biosci 89:29-52). Any number and combination of the four dengue serotypes DENv1-4 is considered. Successful vaccination against a serotype corresponds to a silent infection. The effects of antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE) and permanent cross-immunity after two heterologous infections are studied. ADE is assumed to imply risk-free primary infections, while permanent cross-immunity implies risk-free tertiary and quaternary infections. Data from trials of Dengvaxia indicate vaccine efficacy to be age and serostatus dependent and vaccination of seronegative individuals to induce an increased risk of hospitalisation. Some of the scenarios are therefore reconsidered taking these findings into account. The optimal vaccination age is compared to that achievable under the current age restriction of the vaccine. If vaccination is not considered to induce risk, optimal vaccination ages are very low. The assumption of ADE generally leads to a higher optimal vaccination age in this case. For a single serotype vaccination is not recommended in the case of ADE. Permanent cross-immunity results in a slightly lower optimal vaccination age. If vaccination induces a risk, the optimal vaccination ages are much higher, particularly for permanent cross-immunity. ADE has no effect on the optimal vaccination age when permanent cross-immunity is considered; otherwise, it leads to a slight increase in optimal vaccination age.
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Vacunas contra el Dengue/administración & dosificación , Dengue/prevención & control , Modelos Inmunológicos , Aedes/virología , Factores de Edad , Animales , Acrecentamiento Dependiente de Anticuerpo , Número Básico de Reproducción/estadística & datos numéricos , Brasil , Niño , Preescolar , Reacciones Cruzadas , Dengue/inmunología , Dengue/transmisión , Virus del Dengue/clasificación , Virus del Dengue/inmunología , Humanos , Esquemas de Inmunización , Inmunogenicidad Vacunal , Lactante , Mordeduras y Picaduras de Insectos/virología , Conceptos Matemáticos , Mosquitos Vectores/virología , Factores de Riesgo , SerogrupoRESUMEN
Resumo A COVID-19 é uma doença produzida pelo vírus SARS-CoV-2. Esse vírus se espalhou rapidamente pelo mundo, o que levou a Organização Mundial da Saúde a classificar a COVID-19 como uma emergência de saúde internacional e, posteriormente, a declará-la uma pandemia. O número de casos confirmados, no dia 11 de abril de 2020, já passa de 1.700.000, porém esses dados não refletem a real prevalência de COVID-19 na população, visto que, em muitos países, os testes são quase que exclusivamente realizados em pessoas com sintomas, especialmente os mais graves. Para definir políticas de enfrentamento, é essencial dispor de dados sobre a prevalência real de infecção na população. Este estudo tem por objetivos avaliar a proporção de indivíduos já infectados pelo SARS-CoV-2 no Rio Grande do Sul, Brasil, analisar a velocidade de expansão da infecção e estimar o percentual de infectados com e sem sintomas. Serão realizados quatro inquéritos sorológicos repetidos a cada 15 dias, com amostragem probabilística de nove cidades sentinela, em todas as sub-regiões do Estado. As entrevistas e testes ocorrerão no âmbito domiciliar. Serão utilizados testes rápidos para detecção de anticorpos, validados previamente ao início da coleta de dados.
Abstract COVID-19, the disease produced by the virus SARS-CoV-2, has spread quickly throughout the world, leading the World Health Organization to first classify it as an international health emergency and, subsequently, declaring it pandemic. The number of confirmed cases, as April 11, surpassed 1,700,000, but this figure does not reflect the prevalence of COVID-19 in the population as, in many countries, tests are almost exclusively performed in people with symptoms, particularly severe cases. To properly assess the magnitude of the problem and to contribute to the design of evidence-based policies for fighting COVID-19, one must accurately estimate the population prevalence of infection. Our study is aimed at estimating the prevalence of infected individuals in the state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, to document how fast the infection spreads, and to estimate the proportion of infected persons who present or presented symptoms, as well as the proportion of asymptomatic infections. Four repeated serological surveys will be conducted in probability samples of nine sentinel cities every two weeks. Tests will be performed in 4,500 participants in each survey, totaling18,000 interviews. Interviews and tests will be conducted at the participants' household. A rapid test for the detection of antibodies will be used; the test was validated prior to the beginning of the fieldwork.
Asunto(s)
Humanos , Neumonía Viral/epidemiología , Infecciones por Coronavirus/epidemiología , Vigilancia de Guardia , Técnicas de Laboratorio Clínico/estadística & datos numéricos , Infecciones Asintomáticas/epidemiología , Pandemias , Betacoronavirus/inmunología , Neumonía Viral/transmisión , Factores de Tiempo , Brasil/epidemiología , Prevalencia , Infecciones por Coronavirus , Infecciones por Coronavirus/diagnóstico , Infecciones por Coronavirus/transmisión , Técnicas de Laboratorio Clínico/métodos , Técnicas de Laboratorio Clínico/ética , Betacoronavirus , Anticuerpos Antivirales/sangreRESUMEN
Abstract The first case of COVID-19 was reported in China in December 2019, and, as the virus has spread worldwide, the World Health Organization declared it a pandemic. Estimates on the number of COVID-19 cases do not reflect it real magnitude as testing is limited. Population based data on the proportion of the population with antibodies is relevant for planning public health policies. We aim to assess the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies, presence of signs and symptoms of COVID-19, and adherence to isolation measures. A random sample comprising 133 sentinel cities from all states of the country will be selected. Three serological surveys, three weeks apart, will be conducted. The most populous municipality in each intermediate region of the country, defined by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics, was chosen as sentinel city. In each city, 25 census tracts will be selected, and 10 households will be systematically sampled in each tract, totaling 33,250 participants. In each household, one inhabitant will be randomly selected to be interviewed and tested for antibodies against SARS-CoV-2, using WONDFO SARS-CoV-2 Antibody Test. By evaluating a representative sample of Brazilian sentinel sites, this study will provide essential information for the design of health policies.
Resumo O COVID-19 é causado pelo vírus SARS-CoV-2, sendo o primeiro caso relatado na China em dezembro de 2019. O vírus se espalhou pelo mundo, levando a Organização Mundial da Saúde a declarar uma pandemia. As estimativas do número de casos de COVID-19 não refletem sua magnitude real, pois os testes são limitados em muitos países. Dados populacionais sobre a proporção da população com anticorpos são relevantes para o planejamento de políticas públicas de saúde. Nosso objetivo é avaliar a prevalência de anticorpos SARS-CoV-2, a presença de sinais e de sintomas de COVID-19 e a adesão a medidas de isolamento. Uma amostra aleatória composta por 133 cidades sentinelas de todos os estados do país será selecionada. Serão realizados três levantamentos sorológicos, com três semanas de intervalo. Em cada cidade, serão selecionados 25 setores censitários e 10 famílias serão amostradas aleatoriamente em cada setor. Em cada domicílio, um habitante será selecionado aleatoriamente para ser entrevistado e testado para anticorpos contra SARS-CoV-2, usando o Teste de Anticorpo WONDFO SARS-CoV-2, que foi validado antes do trabalho de campo. Ao avaliar uma amostra representativa dos locais sentinela ao longo do tempo, este estudo fornecerá informações essenciais para o desenho de políticas de saúde.
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Humanos , Neumonía Viral/epidemiología , Salud Pública , Infecciones por Coronavirus/epidemiología , Técnicas de Laboratorio Clínico , Betacoronavirus/aislamiento & purificación , Neumonía Viral/diagnóstico , Brasil/epidemiología , Pruebas Serológicas , Prevalencia , Infecciones por Coronavirus , Infecciones por Coronavirus/diagnóstico , Pandemias , Betacoronavirus , Betacoronavirus/inmunología , Política de Salud , Anticuerpos Antivirales/sangreRESUMEN
ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To describe social distancing practices in nine municipalities of the state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, stratified by gender, age, and educational attainment. METHODS Two sequential cross-sectional studies were conducted in the municipalities of Canoas, Caxias do Sul, Ijuí, Passo Fundo, Pelotas, Porto Alegre, Santa Cruz do Sul, Santa Maria, and Uruguaiana to estimate the population prevalence of COVID-19. The study was designed to be representative of the urban population of these municipalities. A questionnaire including three questions about social distancing was also administered to the participants. Here, we present descriptive analyses of social distancing practices by subgroups and use chi-square tests for comparisons. RESULTS In terms of degree of social distancing, 25.8% of the interviewees reported being essentially isolated and 41.1% reported being quite isolated. 20.1% of respondents reported staying at home all the time, while 44.5% left only for essential activities. More than half of households reported receiving no visits from non-residents. Adults aged 20 to 59 reported the least social distancing, while more than 80% of participants aged 60 years or older reported being essentially isolated or quite isolated. Women reported more stringent distancing than men. Groups with higher educational attainment reported going out for daily activities more frequently. CONCLUSIONS The extremes of age are more protected by social distancing, but some groups remain highly exposed. This can be an important limiting factor in controlling progression of the COVID-19 pandemic.
RESUMO OBJETIVO Descrever práticas de distanciamento social em nove municípios do Rio Grande do Sul por sexo, idade, escolaridade e cidade. MÉTODOS Foram realizados dois estudos transversais sequenciais representativos da população urbana nos municípios de Canoas, Caxias do Sul, Ijuí, Passo Fundo, Pelotas, Porto Alegre, Santa Cruz do Sul, Santa Maria e Uruguaiana com o intuito de estimar a prevalência populacional de Covid-19. Foi aplicado questionário contendo três perguntas sobre distanciamento social, cujas práticas foram submetidas a análises descritivas por subgrupos. Os dados foram comparados por testes qui-quadrado. RESULTADOS Em termos de grau de distanciamento social, 25,8% dos entrevistados relataram estar praticamente isolados e 41,1% indicam praticar bastante distanciamento. Relataram ficar em casa o tempo todo 20,1% dos entrevistados, e 44,5% informam que saem apenas para atividades essenciais. Mais da metade dos domicílios não recebe visitas de não moradores. O grupo que relatou menos distanciamento social foi o de adultos entre 20 e 59 anos, enquanto mais de 80% dos entrevistados com 60 anos ou mais relataram estar praticamente isolados ou fazendo bastante distanciamento. As mulheres relataram fazer mais distanciamento que os homens, e os grupos de maior escolaridade foram os que relataram sair diariamente para atividades regulares com mais frequência. CONCLUSÕES Os grupos mais jovens e mais idosos estão mais protegidos pelo distanciamento social, mas há grupos bastante expostos, o que pode ser um limitador importante no controle da progressão da epidemia de Covid-19.
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Humanos , Masculino , Femenino , Adulto , Adulto Joven , Neumonía Viral/prevención & control , Aislamiento Social , Control de Enfermedades Transmisibles/estadística & datos numéricos , Infecciones por Coronavirus/prevención & control , Pandemias/prevención & control , Brasil , Estudios Transversales , Ciudades , Betacoronavirus , SARS-CoV-2 , COVID-19 , Persona de Mediana EdadRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: In developing countries, tuberculosis (TB) is a major public health problem and the leading cause of death among patients with HIV (Human Immunodeficiency Virus). Until 2001, the tuberculin skin test (TST) was the only available tool for the diagnosis of latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI), but false-negative TST results are frequently reported. Recently, the interferon-γ (IFN-γ) release assay (IGRA) has gained ground because it can detect the IFN-γ secreted by circulating lymphocytes T cells when stimulated by specific TB antigens. However, the role of IGRA in the diagnosis of LTBI in HIV-infected patients has not been well established. METHODS: This cross-sectional study compared the accuracy of TST (performed by the Mantoux method) and IGRA (QuantiFERON-TB Gold In-Tube, Cellestis, Carnegie, Australia) on the diagnosis of LTBI among patients with HIV. LTBI is defined by LTBI risk and at least one positive test (TST or IGRA), without clinical evidence of active TB. We also assessed the accuracy of TST and IGRA among HIV patients with high and low risk for LTBI. RESULTS: Among 90 HIV patients, 80 met the study criteria for LTBI, fifty-nine (73.7%) patients were TST positive, 21 (26.2%) were negative, whereas 75 patients (93.7%) were IGRA positive, and five (6.2%) were negative. TST showed poor agreement with the diagnosis of LTBI (Kappa: 0.384), while IGRA demonstrated good agreement (Kappa: 0.769). Among 69 patients with high risk and 21 with low risk for LTBI, TST was positive in 48 (69.5%) and 11 (52.4%), while IGRA was positive in 68 (98.5%) and 7 (33.3%) patients, respectively. There were no association between TST and the level of risk (P = 0,191). Conversely, we observed a strong association between the IGRA and risk for LTBI (p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Compared to TST, IGRA positivity is consistent with the risk of TB infection and seems to be a better diagnostic tool for LTBI in HIV-infected patients.
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Infecciones por VIH/complicaciones , Ensayos de Liberación de Interferón gamma/métodos , Tuberculosis Latente/diagnóstico , Infecciones Oportunistas Relacionadas con el SIDA/sangre , Infecciones Oportunistas Relacionadas con el SIDA/diagnóstico , Infecciones Oportunistas Relacionadas con el SIDA/epidemiología , Adulto , Brasil/epidemiología , Estudios Transversales , Femenino , VIH , Infecciones por VIH/sangre , Infecciones por VIH/epidemiología , Humanos , Interferón gamma/sangre , Tuberculosis Latente/sangre , Tuberculosis Latente/complicaciones , Tuberculosis Latente/epidemiología , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Valor Predictivo de las Pruebas , Sensibilidad y Especificidad , Prueba de Tuberculina/métodosRESUMEN
Aedes aegypti, historically known as yellow fever (YF) mosquito, transmits a great number of other viruses such as Dengue, West Nile, Chikungunya, Zika, Mayaro and perhaps Oropouche, among others. Well established in Africa and Asia, Aedes mosquitoes are now increasingly invading large parts of the American continent, and hence the risk of urban YF resurgence in the American cities should because of great concern to public health authorities. Although no new urban cycle of YF was reported in the Americas since the end of an Aedes eradication programme in the late 1950s, the high number of non-vaccinated individuals that visit endemic areas, that is, South American jungles where the sylvatic cycle of YF is transmitted by canopy mosquitoes, and return to Aedes-infested urban areas, increases the risk of resurgence of the urban cycle of YF. We present a method to estimate the risk of urban YF resurgence in dengue-endemic cities. This method consists in (1) to estimate the number of Aedes mosquitoes that explains a given dengue outbreak in a given region; (2) calculate the force of infection caused by the introduction of one infective individual per unit area in the endemic area under study; (3) using the above estimates, calculate the probability of at least one autochthonous YF case per unit area produced by one single viraemic traveller per unit area arriving from a YF endemic or epidemic sylvatic region at the city studied. We demonstrate that, provided the relative vector competence, here defined as the capacity to being infected and disseminate the virus, of Ae. aegypti is greater than 0.7 (with respect to dengue), one infected traveller can introduce urban YF in a dengue endemic area.
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Aedes/virología , Enfermedades Transmisibles Importadas/epidemiología , Dengue/epidemiología , Mosquitos Vectores/virología , Fiebre Amarilla/epidemiología , Américas/epidemiología , Animales , Ciudades/epidemiología , Enfermedades Transmisibles Importadas/transmisión , Dengue/transmisión , Femenino , Humanos , Incidencia , Probabilidad , Medición de Riesgo/métodos , Viaje , Fiebre Amarilla/transmisiónRESUMEN
Given the speed of air travel, diseases even with a short viremia such as dengue can be easily exported to dengue naïve areas within 24 hours. We set out to estimate the risk of dengue virus introductions via travelers into Europe and number of secondary autochthonous cases as a result of the introduction. We applied mathematical modeling to estimate the number of dengue-viremic air passengers from 16 dengue-endemic countries to 27 European countries, taking into account the incidence of dengue in the exporting countries, travel volume and the probability of being viremic at the time of travel. Our models estimate a range from zero to 167 air passengers who are dengue-viremic at the time of travel from dengue endemic countries to each of the 27 receiving countries in one year. Germany receives the highest number of imported dengue-viremic air passengers followed by France and the United Kingdom. Our findings estimate 10 autochthonous secondary asymptomatic and symptomatic dengue infections, caused by the expected 124 infected travelers who arrived in Italy in 2012. The risk of onward transmission in Europe is reassuringly low, except where Aedes aegypti is present.
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Aedes/virología , Viaje en Avión/estadística & datos numéricos , Virus del Dengue/aislamiento & purificación , Dengue/epidemiología , Dengue/transmisión , Insectos Vectores/virología , Viremia/epidemiología , Animales , Dengue/virología , Europa (Continente)/epidemiología , Humanos , Incidencia , Modelos Teóricos , Viremia/virologíaRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: National or local laws, norms or regulations (sometimes and in some countries) require medical providers to report notifiable diseases to public health authorities. Reporting, however, is almost always incomplete. This is due to a variety of reasons, ranging from not recognizing the diseased to failures in the technical or administrative steps leading to the final official register in the disease notification system. The reported fraction varies from 9 to 99% and is strongly associated with the disease being reported. METHODS: In this paper we propose a method to approximately estimate the full prevalence (and any other variable or parameter related to transmission intensity) of infectious diseases. The model assumes incomplete notification of incidence and allows the estimation of the non-notified number of infections and it is illustrated by the case of hepatitis C in Brazil. The method has the advantage that it can be corrected iteratively by comparing its findings with empirical results. RESULTS: The application of the model for the case of hepatitis C in Brazil resulted in a prevalence of notified cases that varied between 163,902 and 169,382 cases; a prevalence of non-notified cases that varied between 1,433,638 and 1,446,771; and a total prevalence of infections that varied between 1,597,540 and 1,616,153 cases. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that the model proposed can be useful for estimation of the actual magnitude of endemic states of infectious diseases, particularly for those where the number of notified cases is only the tip of the iceberg. In addition, the method can be applied to other situations, such as the well-known underreported incidence of criminality (for example rape), among others.