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Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a neglected tropical disease that is globally distributed and has the potential to cause very serious illness. Prior literature highlights the emergence and spread of VL is influenced by multiple factors, such as socioeconomic status, sanitation levels or animal and human reservoirs. The study aimed to retrospectively investigate the presence and infectiousness of VL in Rio Grande do Norte (RN), Brazil between 2007 and 2020. We applied a hierarchical Bayesian approach to estimate municipality-specific relative risk of VL across space and time. The results show evidence that lower socioeconomic status is connected to higher municipality-specific VL risk. Overall, estimates reveal spatially heterogeneous VL risks in RN, with a high probability that VL risk for municipalities within the West Potiguar mesoregion are more than double the expected VL risk. Additionally, given the data available, results indicate there is a high probability of increasing VL risk in the municipalities of Natal, Patu and Pau dos Ferros. These findings demonstrate opportunities for municipality-specific public health policy interventions and warrant future research on identifying epidemiological drivers in at-risk regions.

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The intensity of mate competition is often influenced by predation pressure. The threat-sensitive predator avoidance hypothesis predicts that prey should precisely adjust their fitness-related activities to the level of perceived acute predation risk and this effect should be stronger under high background risk. Individuals should compensate during periods of moderate risk for lost opportunities during high risk. Our study examined the interaction between acute and background predation risk on mate competition. Under laboratory conditions, we explored the effects of acute risk (low vs. high) using chemical alarm cue (AC; control (results presented in Chuard et al. (2016)) The effects of adult sex ratio on mating competition in male and female guppies (Poecilia reticulata) in two wild populations. Behav Process 129:1-10), 25 % concentration, and 100 % concentration), and population of origin (low vs. high background risk) on mate competition in guppies (Poecilia reticulata). Surprisingly, males favored courtship over forced mating under acute predation risk irrespective of background risk, potentially benefiting from a female preference for bold males. We discuss our results in the context of chemical threat-sensitivity and resource differences in defendability (e.g. mates vs. food).

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Variation in predation risk can drive variation in fear intensity, the length of fear retention, and whether fear returns after waning. Using Trinidadian guppies, we assessed whether a low-level predation threat could easily re-trigger fear after waning. First, we show that background risk induced neophobia after either multiple exposures to a low-level threat or a single exposure to a high-level threat. However, a single exposure to the low-level threat had no such effect. The individuals that received multiple background exposures to the low-level threat retained their neophobic phenotype over an 8-day post-risk period, and this response was intensified by a single re-exposure to the low-level threat on day 7. In contrast, the neophobia following the single high-level threat waned over the 8-day period, but the single re-exposure to the low-level threat on day 7 re-triggered the neophobic phenotype. Thus, despite the single low-level exposure being insufficient to induce neophobia, it significantly elevated existing fear and re-triggered fear that had waned. We highlight how such patterns of fear acquisition, retention, and rapid re-triggering play an important role in animal ecology and evolution and outline parallels between the neophobic phenotype in fishes and dimensions of post-traumatic stress in humans.

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BACKGROUND: Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a vector borne zoonotic disease endemic in humans and dogs in Brazil. Due to the increased risk of human infection secondary to the presence of infected dogs, public health measures in Brazil mandate testing and culling of infected dogs. Despite this important relationship between human and canine infection, little is known about what makes the dog reservoir progress to clinical illness, significantly tied to infectiousness to sand flies. Dogs in endemic areas of Brazil are exposed to many tick-borne pathogens, which are likely to alter the immune environment and thus control of L. infantum. RESULTS: A cross-sectional study of 223 dogs from an area of Natal, in the Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil, were studied to determine the association between comorbid tick-borne disease and Leishmania infection in this endemic area. The risk of Leishmania seropositivity was 1.68× greater in dogs with tick-borne disease seropositivity compared to those without (Adjusted RR: 1.68, 95% CI: 1.09-2.61, P = 0.019). A longitudinal study of 214 hunting dogs in the USA was conducted to determine the causal relationship between infection with tick-borne diseases and progression of VL. Hunting dogs were evaluated three times across a full tick season to detect incident infection with tick-borne diseases. A logistic regression model with generalized estimating equations to estimate the parameters was used to determine how exposure to tick-borne disease altered VL progression over these three time points when controlling for other variables. Dogs infected with three or more tick-borne diseases were 11× more likely to be associated with progression to clinical VL than dogs with no tick-borne disease (Adjusted RR: 11.64, 95% CI: 1.22-110.99, P = 0.03). Dogs with exposure to both Leishmania spp. and tick-borne diseases were five times more likely to die during the study period (RR: 4.85, 95% CI: 1.65-14.24, P = 0.0051). CONCLUSIONS: Comorbid tick-borne diseases dramatically increased the likelihood that a dog had clinical L. infantum infection, making them more likely to transmit infection to sand flies and people. As an important consequence, reduction of tick-borne disease exposure through topical or oral insecticides may be an important way to reduce progression and transmissibility of Leishmania infection from the canine reservoir to people.

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Approximate Bayesia n Computation (ABC) provides an attractive approach to estimation in complex Bayesian inferential problems for which evaluation of the kernel of the posterior distribution is impossible or computationally expensive. These highly parallelizable techniques have been successfully applied to many fields, particularly in cases where more traditional approaches such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) are impractical. In this work, we demonstrate the application of approximate Bayesian inference to spatially heterogeneous Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) stochastic epidemic models. These models have a tractable posterior distribution, however MCMC techniques nevertheless become computationally infeasible for moderately sized problems. We discuss the practical implementation of these techniques via the open source ABSEIR package for R. The performance of ABC relative to traditional MCMC methods in a small problem is explored under simulation, as well as in the spatially heterogeneous context of the 2014 epidemic of Chikungunya in the Americas.

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For many aquatic organisms, olfactory-mediated behaviour is essential to the maintenance of numerous fitness-enhancing activities, including foraging, reproduction and predator avoidance. Studies in both freshwater and marine ecosystems have demonstrated significant impacts of anthropogenic acidification on olfactory abilities of fish and macroinvertebrates, leading to impaired behavioural responses, with potentially far-reaching consequences to population dynamics and community structure. Whereas the ecological impacts of impaired olfactory-mediated behaviour may be similar between freshwater and marine ecosystems, the underlying mechanisms are quite distinct. In acidified freshwater, molecular change to chemical cues along with reduced olfaction sensitivity appear to be the primary causes of olfactory-mediated behavioural impairment. By contrast, experiments simulating future ocean acidification suggest that interference of high CO2 with brain neurotransmitter function is the primary cause for olfactory-mediated behavioural impairment in fish. Different physico-chemical characteristics between marine and freshwater systems are probably responsible for these distinct mechanisms of impairment, which, under globally rising CO2 levels, may lead to strikingly different consequences to olfaction. While fluctuations in pH may occur in both freshwater and marine ecosystems, marine habitat will remain alkaline despite future ocean acidification caused by globally rising CO2 levels. In this synthesis, we argue that ecosystem-specific mechanisms affecting olfaction need to be considered for effective management and conservation practices.

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