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PURPOSE: To determine the predictive validity of the STarT Back tool (SBT) undertaken at baseline and 6 weeks to classify Emergency Department (ED) patients with LBP into groups at low, medium or high risk of persistent disability at 3 months. A secondary aim was to evaluate the clinical effectiveness of pragmatic risk-matched treatment in an ED cohort at 3 months. METHODS: A prospective observational multi-centre study took place in the physiotherapy services linked to the ED in four teaching hospitals in Dublin, Ireland. Patients were stratified into low, medium and high-risk groups at their baseline assessment. Participants received stratified care, where the content of their treatment was matched to their risk profile. Outcomes completed at baseline and 3 months included pain and disability. Linear regression analyses assessed if baseline or 6-week SBT score were predictive of disability at 3 months. Changes in the primary outcome of disability were dichotomised into those who achieved/ did not achieve a 30% improvement in their RMDQ at 6 weeks and 3 months. RESULTS: The study enrolled 118 patients with a primary complaint of LBP ± leg pain with 67 (56.7%) completing their 6-week and 3-month follow-up. Baseline RMDQ and being in medium or high risk SBT group at 6 weeks were predictive of persistent disability at 3 months. A total of 54 (80.6%) participants reported a > 30% improvement at 3 months. CONCLUSION: Disability at baseline and SBT administered at 6 weeks more accurately predicted disability at 3 months than SBT at baseline in an ED population.

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Variation in attack rates of paralytic disease by region during the 1988-1989 epidemic of type 1 poliomyelitis in Oman provided the stimulus to test the hypothesis that these observations were due to regional differences in the response of infants to trivalent oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV). Seroprevalence studies of 394 children born during the outbreak were conducted in six different regions of Oman and in two socioeconomic status (SES) groups in the capital city of Muscat; a seroconversion study was also carried out in 105 infants born after the outbreak. Seroprevalence rates by region after receipt of at least three doses of OPV ranged from 90% to 100% (median 94%) to poliovirus type 1, and from 86% to 100% (median 97%) to type 2, and from 47% to 79% (median 72%) to type 3, with the lowest rates observed in regions with the highest incidence of type 1 paralytic disease. In Muscat, seroprevalence rates were also significantly lower in low versus high SES groups (type 1: 84% versus 98%, respectively [P = 0.006]; type 3: 59% versus 86%, respectively [P = 0.001]). In the seroconversion study conducted after the outbreak, 89%, 100% and 50% of infants had detectable antibodies to types 1, 2, and 3, respectively, after four doses of OPV. Low responses to type 3 were also associated with the occurrence of sporadic cases of type 3 poliomyelitis in 1991, in spite of high rates of coverage with at least four doses of OPV (> 96%) throughout the country.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

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Although injections administered during the incubation period of wild poliovirus infection have been associated with an increased risk of paralytic poliomyelitis, quantitative estimates of the risk have not been established. During a poliomyelitis outbreak investigation in Oman, vaccination records were reviewed for 70 children aged 5-24 months with poliomyelitis and from 692 matched control children. A significantly higher proportion of cases received a DTP (diphtheria and tetanus toxoids and pertussis vaccine) injection within 30 days before paralysis onset than did controls (42.9% vs. 28.3%; odds ratio, 2.4; 95% confidence interval, 1.3-4.2). The proportion of poliomyelitis cases that may have been provoked by DTP injections was 35% for children 5-11 months old. This study confirms that injections are an important cause of provocative poliomyelitis. Although the benefits of DTP vaccination should outweigh the risk of subsequent paralysis, these data stress the importance of avoiding unnecessary injections during outbreaks of wild poliovirus infection.

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From January, 1988, to March, 1989, a widespread outbreak (118 cases) of poliomyelitis type 1 occurred in Oman. Incidence of paralytic disease was highest in children younger than 2 years (87/100,000) despite an immunisation programme that recently had raised coverage with 3 doses of oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) among 12-month-old children from 67% to 87%. We did a case-control study (70 case-patients, 692 age-matched controls) to estimate the clinical efficacy of OPV, assessed the immunogenicity of OPV and extent of poliovirus spread by serology, retrospectively evaluated the cold chain and vaccine potency, and sought the origin of the outbreak strain by genomic sequencing. 3 doses of OPV reduced the risk of paralysis by 91%; vaccine failures could not be explained by failures in the cold chain nor on suboptimum vaccine potency. Cases and controls had virtually identical type 1 neutralising antibody profiles, suggesting that poliovirus type 1 circulation was widespread. Genomic sequencing indicated that the outbreak strain had been recently imported from South Asia and was distinguishable from isolates indigenous to the Middle East. Accumulation of enough children to sustain the outbreak seems to have been due to previous success of the immunisation programme in reducing spread of endemic strains, suboptimum efficacy of OPV, and delay in completing the primary immunisation series until 7 months of age. Additionally, the estimated attack rate of infection among children aged 9-23 months exceeded 25% in some regions, suggesting that a substantial proportion of fully vaccinated children had been involved in the chain of transmission.

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An evaluation of the meals served in 41 Adult Foster Care facilities in Michigan showed that 38 did not serve meals which obtained the expected dietary score based on food groupings. Eighty-three percent of the facilities did not provide adequate amounts of milk/dairy products and 54 percent of homes did not provide 5 oz. or more of meat/meat alternates. Twelve percent of homes did not provide four or more servings of cereals/breads. Forty-two percent of homes did not provide four or more servings of fruits and vegetables. The problems of menu inadequacy identified by this study indicate that action to develop training and other programs to ensure that AFC residents receive nutritionally adequate diets is needed in Michigan. An evaluation of actual nutrient intake of residents is also recommended.

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