RESUMEN
COVID-19 patients are oftentimes over- or under-treated due to a deficit in predictive management tools. This study reports derivation of an algorithm that integrates the host levels of TRAIL, IP-10, and CRP into a single numeric score that is an early indicator of severe outcome for COVID-19 patients and can identify patients at-risk to deteriorate. 394 COVID-19 patients were eligible; 29% meeting a severe outcome (intensive care unit admission/non-invasive or invasive ventilation/death). The score's area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was 0.86, superior to IL-6 (AUC 0.77; p = 0.033) and CRP (AUC 0.78; p < 0.001). Likelihood of severe outcome increased significantly (p < 0.001) with higher scores. The score differentiated severe patients who further deteriorated from those who improved (p = 0.004) and projected 14-day survival probabilities (p < 0.001). The score accurately predicted COVID-19 patients at-risk for severe outcome, and therefore has potential to facilitate timely care escalation and de-escalation and appropriate resource allocation.
Asunto(s)
COVID-19 , Humanos , Quimiocina CXCL10 , Unidades de Cuidados Intensivos , Curva ROC , Estudios Retrospectivos , PronósticoRESUMEN
OBJECTIVES: Identifying infection aetiology is essential for appropriate antibiotic use. Previous studies have shown that a host-protein signature consisting of TNF-related apoptosis-induced ligand (TRAIL), interferon-γ-induced protein-10 (IP-10), and C-reactive protein (CRP) can accurately differentiate bacterial from viral infections. METHODS: This prospective, multicentre cohort study, entitled AutoPilot-Dx, aimed to validate signature performance and to estimate its potential impact on antibiotic use across a broad paediatric population (>90 days to 18 years) with respiratory tract infections, or fever without source, at emergency departments and wards in Italy and Germany. Infection aetiology was adjudicated by experts based on clinical and laboratory investigations, including multiplex PCR and follow-up data. RESULTS: In total, 1140 patients were recruited (February 2017-December 2018), of which 1008 met the eligibility criteria (mean age 3.5 years, 41.9% female). Viral and bacterial infections were adjudicated for 628 (85.8%) and 104 (14.2%) children, respectively; 276 patients were assigned an indeterminate reference standard outcome. For the 732 children with reference standard aetiology, the signature discriminated bacterial from viral infections with a sensitivity of 93.7% (95%CI 88.7-98.7), a specificity of 94.2% (92.2-96.1), positive predictive value of 73.0% (65.0-81.0), and negative predictive value of 98.9% (98.0-99.8); in 9.8% the test results were equivocal. The signature performed consistently across different patient subgroups and detected bacterial immune responses in viral PCR-positive patients. CONCLUSIONS: The findings validate the high diagnostic performance of the TRAIL/IP-10/CRP signature in a broad paediatric cohort, and support its potential to reduce antibiotic overuse in children with viral infections.