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Mathematical modeling studies are frequently conducted to guide policy in global health. However, the contribution of mathematical modeling studies to World Health Organization (WHO) guideline recommendations, and the quality of evidence contributed by these studies remains unknown. We conducted a systematic review of the WHO Guidelines Review Committee database to identify guideline recommendations that included evidence from mathematical modeling studies since inception of the Guidelines Review Committee on 1 December, 2007. We included WHO guideline recommendations citing a mathematical modeling study in the primary evidence base. We defined a mathematical model as a framework that predicted epidemiologic, health or economic impact of an intervention or decision in the clinical or public health context. The primary outcome was inclusion of evidence from mathematical modeling studies in a guideline recommendation. We evaluated each unique modeling study across multiple domains of quality. Between 1 December 2007 and 1 April 2019, the WHO Guidelines Review Committee approved 154 guidelines providing 1619 guideline recommendations. Mathematical modeling studies informed 46 WHO guidelines (29.9%) and 101 unique guideline recommendations (6.2%). Modeling evidence addressed topics related to infectious diseases in 38 guidelines (82.6%) and 81 recommendations (80.2%), most commonly for HIV and tuberculosis. Evidence from modeling studies was assessed in the GRADE evidence profile for 12 recommendations (12.9%) and GRADE evidence-to-decision framework for 45 recommendations (44.6%). Modeling-informed recommendations were more likely than other recommendations within the same guidelines to be issued with a "conditional" rather than "strong" strength of recommendation (53.5% versus 37.8%), and the evidence underlying modeling-informed recommendations was more likely to be assessed as very low quality (41.6% versus 24.1%). Upon review of individual modeling studies, we estimated that 33.8% of models performed a calibration, 29.4% of models performed a validation of results, and 20.6% of models reported a change in the study conclusion in the sensitivity analysis. While policy recommendations in WHO guidelines are informed by evidence from modeling studies, the validity of modeling studies included in guidelines development is heterogeneous. Quality assessment is needed to support the evaluation and incorporation of evidence from mathematical modeling studies in guidelines development.

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Branched-chain amino acid (BCAAs: leucine, isoleucine, and valine) contribute to the development of obesity-associated insulin resistance in the context of consumption of a high-fat diet (HFD) in humans and rodents. Maternal diet is a major determinant of offspring health, and there is strong evidence that maternal HFD alters hypothalamic developmental programming and disrupts offspring energy homeostasis in rodents. In this study, we exposed pregnant and lactating C57BL/6JB female mice to either HFD, HFD with supplemented BCAA (HFD+BCAA), or standard diet (SC), and we studied offspring metabolic phenotypes. Both maternal HFD and HFD supplemented with BCAA had similar effect rendering the offspring metabolic imbalance and impairing their ability to cope with HFD when challenged during aging. The metabolic effects of HFD challenge were more profound in females, worsening female offspring ability to cope with an HFD challenge by activating hypothalamic inflammation in aging. Moreover, the sex differences in hypothalamic estrogen receptor α (ER-α) expression levels were lost in female offspring upon HFD challenge, supporting a link between ER-α levels and hypothalamic inflammation in offspring and highlighting the programming potential of hypothalamic inflammatory responses and maternal nutrition.

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OBJECTIVE: To systematically review the literature regarding the ability of clinical features to predict respiratory failure in patients with Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS). DATA SOURCES: We searched the PubMed and Ovid MEDLINE databases with the search terms "guillain barre syndrome" OR "acute inflammatory demyelinating polyneuropathy" OR "acute motor axonal neuropathy" OR "acute motor sensory axonal neuropathy" AND "respiratory failure" OR "mechanical ventilation". We excluded articles that did not report the results of original research (eg, review articles, letters), were case reports or series (ten or fewer patients), were not available in English, reported research in paediatric populations (16 years of age or younger), or were interventional studies. Article quality was assessed with the Newcastle-Ottawa quality assessment scale. DATA SYNTHESIS: Thirty-four relevant studies were identified. Short time from symptom onset to hospital admission (less than 7 days), bulbar (odds ratio [OR], 9.0; 95% CI, 3.94-20.6; P < 0.001) or neck weakness (OR, 6.36; 95% CI, 2.32-17.5; P < 0.001), and severe muscle weakness at hospital admission were associated with increased risk of intubation. Facial weakness (OR, 3.74; 95% CI, 2.05-6.81; P < 0.001) and autonomic instability (OR, 6.40; 95% CI, 2.83-14.5; P < 0.001) were significantly more frequent in patients requiring intubation in our meta-analyses; however, the differences were not statistically significant in individual multivariable analysis studies. Four predictive models have been developed to assess the risk of respiratory failure for patients with GBS, each with good to excellent discriminative power (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.79-0.96). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Early identification of GBS patients at risk of respiratory failure could reduce the rates of adverse outcomes associated with delayed intubation. Algorithms that predict a patient's risk of subsequent respiratory failure at hospital admission appear more reliable than individual clinical variables.

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Bryostatin-1 is a marine natural product that has demonstrated medicinal activity in pre-clinical and clinical trials for the treatment of cancer, Alzheimer's disease, effects of stroke, and HIV. In this study, iron-bryostatin-1 was obtained using a pharmaceutical aquaculture technique developed by our lab that cultivates marine bacteria for marine natural product extraction. Analytical measurements (1)H and (13)C NMR, mass spectrometry, and flame atomic absorption were utilized to confirm the presence of an iron-bryostatin-1 complex. The iron-bryostatin-1 complex produced was then tested against the National Cancer Institute's 60 cell line panel. Adding iron to bryostatin-1 lowered the anti-cancer efficacy of the compound.

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The bacterium responsible for causing tuberculosis has evolved resistance to antibiotics used to treat the disease, resulting in new multidrug resistant Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MDR-TB) and extensively drug resistant M. tuberculosis (XDR-TB) strains. Analytical techniques (1)H and (13)C Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR), Fourier Transform-Ion Cyclotron Resonance with Electrospray Ionization (FT-ICR/ESI), and Matrix Assisted Laser Desorption Ionization-Mass Spectrometry (MALDI-TOF-MS) were used to study different aspects of the Cu(II)-polyethylene glycol (PEG-3350)-sucrose-isoniazid and Cu(II)-polyethylene glycol (PEG3350)-glucose-isoniazid complexes. The Cu(II) cation, sucrose or glucose, and the aggregate formed by PEG primarily serve as a composite drug delivery agent for the frontline antibiotic, however the improvement in MIC values produced with the CU-PEG-SUC-INH complex suggest an additional effect. Several Cu-PEG-SUC-INH complex variations were tested against INH resistant and nonresistant strains of M. tuberculosis.

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