RESUMEN
Rising global oil prices are a major challenge for an emerging oil-importing nation such as Bangladesh. The majority of prior research on the economic effects of an oil price shock has concentrated on developed countries, with emerging economies receiving comparatively less attention. Bangladesh is vulnerable to price shocks due to its rising oil consumption over the past decade. This study aims to investigate how changes in oil prices would affect Bangladesh's total export earnings and to forecast the overall export volume. This study utilized a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) approach to account for the asymmetric behavior of oil prices from 1991 to 2021. To assess the accuracy of predictions, the study employed the Prophet forecasting model and the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) method. Additionally, the symmetry test revealed a nonlinear relationship between export volume and oil price but a linear relationship between inflation and export volume. According to the NARDL assessment, both positive and negative oil shocks increase export earnings over the long run. The short run summary clarifies that both positive and negative changes in oil prices exert a significant negative effect on exports. Also, Inflation influences export earnings negatively in the short run but positively over the long term. Moreover, using machine learning methods, it was found that the LSTM method outperforms the prophet model in prediction performance with a low root mean square error (RMSE) of 1.88. Also, the analysis revealed policymakers that the export sector requires diversification to reduce its exposure to oil price shocks.
RESUMEN
Background: Bangladesh has been going through the austerity of the unique COVID-19 for more than a year like several other nations in the world in spite of concerted efforts taken by the government along with other concerned authorities who have advocated compulsory guidelines involving social distancing procedures accompanied by lockdown to have control over the pandemic. In this paper, the barriers faced by the government to protect people from the COVID-19 pandemic have been investigated. Also, the number of daily infected people against the number of daily tests has been underlined to comprehend the overall pandemic picture in Bangladesh. Design and Methods: A descriptive study has been carried out to investigate the obstacles to tackle the COVID-19 pandemic for this country. The intensity of the outbreaks of the pandemic in this country is stated from March 8, 2020, to February 12, 2021. Secondary data have been employed from different sources to serve the goals of the study. Results: The poor management in the health sector of Bangladesh has been an issue of major concern during the early stage of COVID-19 which incorporates deficiency of medical equipment, lack of facilities for testing COVID-19, poor patient management, and uncertainty in the medication system. Finally, some recommendations have been proposed for the concerned organizations to tackle the current pandemic and as well in the future. Conclusions: To control this COVID-19 pandemic, it is necessary to find the difficulties and discover the remedies which have been done in this paper for the Bangladesh perspective.