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The major drawback to the implementation of genomic selection in a breeding program lies in long-term decrease in additive genetic variance, which is a trade-off for rapid genetic improvement in short term. Balancing increase in genetic gain with retention of additive genetic variance necessitates careful optimization of this trade-off. In this study, we proposed an integrated index selection approach within the genomic inferred cross-selection (GCS) framework to maximize genetic gain across multiple traits. With this method, we identified optimal crosses that simultaneously maximize progeny performance and maintain genetic variance for multiple traits. Using a stochastic simulated recurrent breeding program over a 40-years period, we evaluated different GCS methods along with other factors, such as the number of parents, crosses, and progeny per cross, that influence genetic gain in a pulse crop breeding program. Across all breeding scenarios, the posterior mean variance consistently enhances genetic gain when compared to other methods, such as the usefulness criterion, optimal haploid value, mean genomic estimated breeding value, and mean index selection value of the superior parents. In addition, we provide a detailed strategy to optimize the number of parents, crosses, and progeny per cross that can potentially maximize short- and long-term genetic gain in a public breeding program.

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Phenotypic selection of complex traits such as seed yield and protein in the preliminary yield trial (PYT) is often constrained by limited seed availability, resulting in trials with few environments and minimal to no replications. Multi-trait multi-environment enabled genomic prediction (MTME-GP) offers a valuable alternative to predict missing phenotypes of selection candidates for multiple traits and diverse environments. In this study, we assessed the efficiency of MTME-GP for improving seed protein and seed yield in field pea, the top two breeding targets but highly antagonistic traits in pulse crop. We utilized a set of 300 selection candidates in the PYT that virtually represented all possible families of the North Dakota State University field pea breeding program. Selection candidates were evaluated in three diverse, contrasting environments, as indicated by a range of heritability. Using whole- and split-environment cross validation schemes, MTME-GP had higher predictive ability than a standard additive G-BLUP model. Integrating a range of overlapping genotypes in between environments showed improvement on the predictive ability of the MTME-GP model but tends to plateau at 50%-80% training set size. Regardless of the cross-validation scheme, accuracy was among the lowest in stressed environments, presumably due to low heritability for seed protein and yield. This study provided insights into the potential of MTME-GP in a public pulse crop breeding program. The MTME-GP framework can be further improved with more testing environments and integration of additional orthogonal information in the early stages of the breeding pipeline.

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BACKGROUND: Effective population size (Ne) is a pivotal parameter in population genetics as it can provide information on the rate of inbreeding and the contemporary status of genetic diversity in breeding populations. The population with smaller Ne can lead to faster inbreeding, with little potential for genetic gain making selections ineffective. The importance of Ne has become increasingly recognized in plant breeding, which can help breeders monitor and enhance the genetic variability or redesign their selection protocols. Here, we present the first Ne estimates based on linkage disequilibrium (LD) in the pea genome. RESULTS: We calculated and compared Ne using SNP markers from North Dakota State University (NDSU) modern breeding lines and United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) diversity panel. The extent of LD was highly variable not only between populations but also among different regions and chromosomes of the genome. Overall, NDSU had a higher and longer-range LD than the USDA that could extend up to 500 Kb, with a genome-wide average r2 of 0.57 (vs 0.34), likely due to its lower recombination rates and the selection background. The estimated Ne for the USDA was nearly three-fold higher (Ne = 174) than NDSU (Ne = 64), which can be confounded by a high degree of population structure due to the selfing nature of pea. CONCLUSIONS: Our results provided insights into the genetic diversity of the germplasm studied, which can guide plant breeders to actively monitor Ne in successive cycles of breeding to sustain viability of the breeding efforts in the long term.

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Multi-trait genomic selection (MT-GS) has the potential to improve predictive ability by maximizing the use of information across related genotypes and genetically correlated traits. In this study, we extended the use of sparse phenotyping method into the MT-GS framework by split testing of entries to maximize borrowing of information across genotypes and predict missing phenotypes for targeted traits without additional phenotyping expenditure. Using 300 advanced breeding lines from North Dakota State University (NDSU) pulse breeding program and ∼200 USDA accessions that were evaluated for 10 nutritional traits, our results show that the proposed sparse phenotyping aided MT-GS can further improve predictive ability by >12% across traits compared with univariate (UNI) genomic selection. The proposed strategy departed from the previous reports that weak genetic correlation is a limitation to the advantage of MT-GS over UNI genomic selection, which was evident in the partially balanced phenotyping-enabled MT-GS. Our results point to heritability and genetic correlation between traits as possible metrics to optimize and further improve the estimation of model parameters, and ultimately, prediction performance. Overall, our study offers a new approach to optimize the prediction performance using the MT-GS and further highlight strategy to maximize the efficiency of GS in a plant breeding program. The sparse-testing-aided MT-GS proposed in this study can be further extended to multi-environment, multi-trait GS to improve prediction performance and further reduce the cost of phenotyping and time-consuming data collection process.

We extended the use of sparse phenotyping into the multi-trait genomic selection (MT-GS) framework by split testing of entries. The sparse-phenotyping-aided MT-GS can increase predictive ability by >12% across traits. Heritability and genetic correlation are possible metrics to optimize and further improve prediction performance of MT-GS. The sparse-testing-aided MT-GS can be further extended to multi-environment, multi-trait GS framework.

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KEY MESSAGE: Sparse testing using genomic prediction can be efficiently used to increase the number of testing environments while maintaining selection intensity in the early yield testing stage without increasing the breeding budget. Sparse testing using genomic prediction enables expanded use of selection environments in early-stage yield testing without increasing phenotyping cost. We evaluated different sparse testing strategies in the yield testing stage of a CIMMYT spring wheat breeding pipeline characterized by multiple populations each with small family sizes of 1-9 individuals. Our results indicated that a substantial overlap between lines across environments should be used to achieve optimal prediction accuracy. As sparse testing leverages information generated within and across environments, the genetic correlations between environments and genomic relationships of lines across environments were the main drivers of prediction accuracy in multi-environment yield trials. Including information from previous evaluation years did not consistently improve the prediction performance. Genomic best linear unbiased prediction was found to be the best predictor of true breeding value, and therefore, we propose that it should be used as a selection decision metric in the early yield testing stages. We also propose it as a proxy for assessing prediction performance to mirror breeder's advancement decisions in a breeding program so that it can be readily applied for advancement decisions by breeding programs.

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To enable a scalable sparse testing genomic selection (GS) strategy at preliminary yield trials in the CIMMYT maize breeding program, optimal approaches to incorporate genotype by environment interaction (GEI) in genomic prediction models are explored. Two cross-validation schemes were evaluated: CV1, predicting the genetic merit of new bi-parental populations that have been evaluated in some environments and not others, and CV2, predicting the genetic merit of half of a bi-parental population that has been phenotyped in some environments and not others using the coefficient of determination (CDmean) to determine optimized subsets of a full-sib family to be evaluated in each environment. We report similar prediction accuracies in CV1 and CV2, however, CV2 has an intuitive appeal in that all bi-parental populations have representation across environments, allowing efficient use of information across environments. It is also ideal for building robust historical data because all individuals of a full-sib family have phenotypic data, albeit in different environments. Results show that grouping of environments according to similar growing/management conditions improved prediction accuracy and reduced computational requirements, providing a scalable, parsimonious approach to multi-environmental trials and GS in early testing stages. We further demonstrate that complementing the full-sib calibration set with optimized historical data results in improved prediction accuracy for the cross-validation schemes.

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KEY MESSAGE: Historical data from breeding programs can be efficiently used to improve genomic selection accuracy, especially when the training set is optimized to subset individuals most informative of the target testing set. The current strategy for large-scale implementation of genomic selection (GS) at the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) global maize breeding program has been to train models using information from full-sibs in a "test-half-predict-half approach." Although effective, this approach has limitations, as it requires large full-sib populations and limits the ability to shorten variety testing and breeding cycle times. The primary objective of this study was to identify optimal experimental and training set designs to maximize prediction accuracy of GS in CIMMYT's maize breeding programs. Training set (TS) design strategies were evaluated to determine the most efficient use of phenotypic data collected on relatives for genomic prediction (GP) using datasets containing 849 (DS1) and 1389 (DS2) DH-lines evaluated as testcrosses in 2017 and 2018, respectively. Our results show there is merit in the use of multiple bi-parental populations as TS when selected using algorithms to maximize relatedness between the training and prediction sets. In a breeding program where relevant past breeding information is not readily available, the phenotyping expenditure can be spread across connected bi-parental populations by phenotyping only a small number of lines from each population. This significantly improves prediction accuracy compared to within-population prediction, especially when the TS for within full-sib prediction is small. Finally, we demonstrate that prediction accuracy in either sparse testing or "test-half-predict-half" can further be improved by optimizing which lines are planted for phenotyping and which lines are to be only genotyped for advancement based on GP.

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Much of the world's population growth will occur in regions where food insecurity is prevalent, with large increases in food demand projected in regions of Africa and South Asia. While improving food security in these regions will require a multi-faceted approach, improved performance of crop varieties in these regions will play a critical role. Current rates of genetic gain in breeding programs serving Africa and South Asia fall below rates achieved in other regions of the world. Given resource constraints, increased genetic gain in these regions cannot be achieved by simply expanding the size of breeding programs. New approaches to breeding are required. The Genomic Open-source Breeding informatics initiative (GOBii) and Excellence in Breeding Platform (EiB) are working with public sector breeding programs to build capacity, develop breeding strategies, and build breeding informatics capabilities to enable routine use of new technologies that can improve the efficiency of breeding programs and increase genetic gains. Simulations evaluating breeding strategies indicate cost-effective implementations of genomic selection (GS) are feasible using relatively small training sets, and proof-of-concept implementations have been validated in the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) maize breeding program. Progress on GOBii, EiB, and implementation of GS in CIMMYT and International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT) breeding programs are discussed, as well as strategies for routine implementation of GS in breeding programs serving Africa and South Asia.