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This paper analyzes and predicts age-sex mortality rates by causes in the Republic of Bashkortostan. The following methods of analysis were used: the Lee-Carter model, singular value decomposition, and ARIMA-modeling. The forecast results suggest that by 2025 the Republic of Bashkortostan will have lower mortality due to malignant neoplasms in all age groups, except for the 70+ group for women and 50+ age groups for men; lower mortality due to diseases of the circulatory system in all age groups for men and higher mortality in 45+ age groups for women; lower mortality due to injuries in all age groups for both sexes; no significant changes in mortality due to respiratory diseases; increased mortality from gastrointestinal diseases for both sexes at all ages, except for children; higher mortality due to infections at 20-54 for men and 20-64 for women; and almost half lower mortality from infections in the age group of 0-4 years for both sexes.

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The assessment was applied to degree of impact of medical social factors on morbidity of total population according appealability in the Republic of Bashkortostan, considering their spatial temporal distribution. The database of the Federal Information Fund for Social and Hygienic Monitoring (Automated Information System "Social and Hygienic Monitoring") of the Department of Rospotrebnadzor and data of official statistical forms of the Territorial Board of the Federal State Statistics Service in the Republic of Bashkortostan were used as source material for the study. The data was applied in case of presence of combination of observations on 54 municipalities and 8 urban okrugs in the dynamics for 2000-2015. The panel regression analysis of was applied as research tool. The results of modeling can be considered in developing target programs of reducing morbidity in particular municipality of the region.

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The article considers dynamics and main indices of primary and total disability of adult and children population in the regions in 2005-2015 as compared to similar indices of the Russian Federation on the basis of the data of Medical Informational Analytical Center of the Ministry of Health Care of the Republic of Bashkortostan, the territorial Agency of Federal Service of State statistics of the Republic of Bashkortostan. The characteristics of indices and their dynamics, structure of leading causes of disability of adult and children population and differences in levels of disability were established. The established tendencies of dynamics of indices of disability in the Republic of Bashkortostan can be taken as a principle in development of programs of prevention of disability and rehabilitation of disable individuals.

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The article presents analysis of level, dynamics and structure of mortality of diseases of blood circulation system in the regions of the Republic of Bashkortostan according to data of the Territorial board of Federal service of state statistics in the Republic of Bashkortostan in 2002-2012 (table C-51). The differences are established in the levels of mortality as compared with the Republic ofBashkortostan and the Russian Federation. Despite of outlined tendency of decreasing of levels of mortality because of the given cause, it continues to be sufficiently high and requires further investigation of all its aspects.

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There are presented results of the calculation of carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risks due to the impact of chemical air pollutants for the human health of a large industrial city. Maximal levels of carcinogenic hazards under inhalation route of substances from the air were established to be noted on gasoline, manganese, sulfur dioxide, copper oxide, formaldehyde. In the formation of carcinogenic risk the greatest contribution is made by chromium, gasoline, formaldehyde, benzol. The risk of non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic effects for the population of the city continues to remain to be high, that requires the development and implementation of planned recreational measures.

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The article analyzes data of state statistics concerning mortality of able-bodied population (table C51) in the regions of the Republic of Bashkortostan in 2002-201. The structure of main causes of death is analyzed. The comparative analysis of received data and analogous indicators in the Republic of Bashkortostan and Russia was carried out. The differences in levels of mortality per regions with different degree of economic development and ecological pollution were demonstrated. The article emphasizes high indicators of mortality of population of able-bodied age in particular regions as compared with corresponding republican and national indicators of mortality. The interregional heterogeneity of indicators of mortality of population of able-bodied age demonstrates a genuine necessity of further intensification of research in identification and qualitative evaluation of health risk factors with following implementation of target preventive programs.

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The territorial characteristics of malignant neoplasms propagation was analyzed to reveal the risk factors concerning the population oncological morbidity in the City of Ufa. The data of accounting reporting documentation of the Bashkir republican oncological dispenser from 2000 to 2008 was used for analysis. The study revealed that in males and females the level of morbidity of oncological neoplasms is higher as compared with indicator's national level and continues to increase steadily factually in all oncological forms of this pathology.

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The article presents quantitative and qualitative evaluation of mortality of children population in large industrial city with developed petrochemical industry on the basis of average long-term data (2000-2010) of Bashkortostanstat, Rosstat, annual reports of ministry of health of the Republic of Bashkortostan. The causes of children mortality are analyzed. The comparative evaluation of dynamics of mortality of children in Ufa with analogous indicators in the Republic of Bashkortostan and the Russian Federation is made. The high indicators of still birth, neonatal mortality in comparison with corresponding indicators in the Republic of Bashkortostan and average data in the Russian Federation. The obtained data dictates the necessity in further elaboration of studies of identification and qualitative evaluation of health risk factors with purpose to scientifically substantiate activities in health promotion of children population.

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The epidemiologic analysis of morbidity and mortality of malignant neoplasms of population of the Republic of Bashkortostan was made. The official oncological statistics of average long-term data of 2000-2008 was used. The trend of increase of oncological neoplasms morbidity was established both in males (up to 6.9%) and females (up to 12.3%) and slight decrease of mortality level (on 5.7%). The structure of oncological morbidity of male population has such focal localizations as lung, stomach, skin, prostate, rectum and colon. In oncological morbidity of women larger part has cancer of breast, skin (with melanoma), stomach, uterine body, cervix and ovaries. The increase of mortality indicators in 2000-2008 was noted concerning skin melanoma (32.4%), colon cancer (27.2%), prostate cancer (23.1%), leukemia (16.5%), breast cancer (13.6%) and rectum cancer (9.6%). The revealed characteristics of neoplasms morbidity and mortality on the territory of the Republic of Bashkortostan are to be taken into account in the prospective planning of curative preventive activities and development of oncological care to this category of patients.

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The article deals with analysis of general and primary morbidity of population of Ufa in all age groups according the data of form N 12 of state statistical supervision "The information of number of diseases registered in patients residing in the district of medical institution support" of Minzdrav of Republic of Bashkortostan in 2000-2008. It is established that during the mentioned period of time, an increase occurred of general and primary morbidity. The particular classes of diseases and age groups are detected which are characterized by a significant increase of indicators of morbidity.

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The authors presented parameters of transitory disablement morbidity, occupational morbidity for workers in two mining enterprises (Bashkortostan Republic), calculated integral parameter of disablement.

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