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1.
Chaos ; 34(7)2024 Jul 01.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38976800

RESUMEN

Networked Turing patterns often manifest as groups of nodes distributed on either side of the homogeneous equilibrium, exhibiting high and low density. These pattern formations are significantly influenced by network topological characteristics, such as the average degree. However, the impact of clustering on them remains inadequately understood. Here, we investigate the relationship between clustering and networked Turing patterns using classical prey-predator models. Our findings reveal that when nodes of high and low density are completely distributed on both sides of the homogeneous equilibrium, there is a linear decay in Turing patterns as global clustering coefficients increase, given a fixed node size and average degree; otherwise, this linear decay may not always hold due to the presence of high-density nodes considered as low-density nodes. This discovery provides a qualitative assessment of how clustering coefficients impact the formation of Turing patterns and may contribute to understanding why using refuges in ecosystems could enhance the stability of prey-predator systems. The results link network topological structures with the stability of prey-predator systems, offering new insights into predicting and controlling pattern formations in real-world systems from a network perspective.

3.
Sci Rep ; 13(1): 19292, 2023 11 07.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37935815

RESUMEN

In this study, a deterministic model for the dynamics of Marburg virus transmission that incorporates the impact of public health education is being formulated and analyzed. The Caputo fractional-order derivative is used to extend the traditional integer model to a fractional-based model. The model's positivity and boundedness are also under investigation. We obtain the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] and establish the conditions for the local and global asymptotic stability for the disease-free equilibrium of the model. Under the Caputo fractional-order derivative, we establish the existence-uniqueness theory using the Banach contraction mapping principle for the solution of the proposed model. We use functional techniques to demonstrate the proposed model's stability under the Ulam-Hyers condition. The numerical solutions are being determined through the Predictor-Corrector scheme. Awareness, as a form of education that lowers the risk of danger, is reducing susceptibility and the risk of infection. We employ numerical simulations to showcase the variety of realistic parameter values that support the argument that human awareness, as a form of education, considerably lowers susceptibility and the risk of infection.


Asunto(s)
Epidemias , Marburgvirus , Humanos , Educación en Salud , Número Básico de Reproducción , Escolaridad
4.
Heliyon ; 9(10): e20531, 2023 Oct.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37842629

RESUMEN

Gonorrhea is a serious global health problem due to its high incidence, with approximately 82.4 million new cases in 2020. To evaluate the consequences of targeted dynamic control of gonorrhea infection transmission, a model for gonorrhea with optimal control analysis is proposed for a structured population. The study looked at the model's positively invariant and bounded regions. The gonorrhea secondary infection expression, R0 for the structured population is computed. The maximum principle of Pontryagin is utilised to construct the optimal system for the formulated mathematical model. To reduce the continuous propagation of gonorrhea, we incorporated education, condoms usage, vaccinations, and treatment as control strategies. The numerical simulations show that the number of infections decreases when the controls are implemented. The effectiveness of the controls is shown using the efficacy plots.

5.
J Math Biol ; 87(2): 29, 2023 Jul 15.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37452969

RESUMEN

As there are no targeted medicines or vaccines for newly emerging infectious diseases, isolation among communities (villages, cities, or countries) is one of the most effective intervention measures. As such, the number of intercommunity edges ([Formula: see text]) becomes one of the most important factor in isolating a place since it is closely related to normal life. Unfortunately, how [Formula: see text] affects epidemic spread is still poorly understood. In this paper, we quantitatively analyzed the impact of [Formula: see text] on infectious disease transmission by establishing a four-dimensional [Formula: see text] edge-based compartmental model with two communities. The basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] is explicitly obtained subject to [Formula: see text] [Formula: see text]. Furthermore, according to [Formula: see text] with zero [Formula: see text], epidemics spread could be classified into two cases. When [Formula: see text] for the case 2, epidemics occur with at least one of the reproduction numbers within communities greater than one, and otherwise when [Formula: see text] for case 1, both reproduction numbers within communities are less than one. Remarkably, in case 1, whether epidemics break out strongly depends on intercommunity edges. Then, the outbreak threshold in regard to [Formula: see text] is also explicitly obtained, below which epidemics vanish, and otherwise break out. The above two cases form a severity-based hierarchical intervention scheme for epidemics. It is then applied to the SARS outbreak in Singapore, verifying the validity of our scheme. In addition, the final size of the system is gained by demonstrating the existence of positive equilibrium in a four-dimensional coupled system. Theoretical results are also validated through numerical simulation in networks with the Poisson and Power law distributions, respectively. Our results provide a new insight into controlling epidemics.


Asunto(s)
Enfermedades Transmisibles , Epidemias , Humanos , Enfermedades Transmisibles/epidemiología , Modelos Biológicos , Redes Comunitarias , Epidemias/prevención & control , Simulación por Computador , Número Básico de Reproducción
6.
Healthc Anal (N Y) ; 3: 100191, 2023 Nov.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37214737

RESUMEN

This study formulates a Monkeypox model with protected travelers. The fixed point theorem is used to obtain the existence and uniqueness of the solution with Ulam-Hyers stability for the analysis of the solution to the model. The Newton polynomial interpolation scheme is employed to solve an approximate solution of the fractional Monkeypox model. The numerical simulations and the graphical representations suggest that the fractional order affects the dynamics of the Monkeypox. The fractional order shows other underlining transmission trends of the Monkeypox disease. We conclude that the result obtained for each compartment conforms to reality as the fractional order approaches unity.

7.
Partial Differ Equ Appl Math ; 6: 100455, 2022 Dec.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36277845

RESUMEN

This paper proposes a new fractal-fractional age-structure model for the omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant under the Caputo-Fabrizio fractional order derivative. Caputo-Fabrizio fractal-fractional order is particularly successful in modelling real-world phenomena due to its repeated memory effect and ability to capture the exponentially decreasing impact of disease transmission dynamics. We consider two age groups, the first of which has a population under 50 and the second of a population beyond 50. Our results show that at a population dynamics level, there is a high infection and recovery of omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant infection among the population under 50 (Group-1), while a high infection rate and low recovery of omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant infection among the population beyond 50 (Group-2) when the fractal-fractional order is varied.

8.
Comput Math Methods Med ; 2022: 6502598, 2022.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36158132

RESUMEN

Coinfection of Ebola virus and malaria is widespread, particularly in impoverished areas where malaria is already ubiquitous. Epidemics of Ebola virus disease arise on a sporadic basis in African nations with a high malaria burden. An observational study discovered that patients in Sierra Leone's Ebola treatment centers were routinely infected with malaria parasites, increasing the risk of death. In this paper, we study Ebola-malaria coinfections under the generalized Mittag-Leffler kernel fractional derivative. The Banach fixed point theorem and the Krasnoselskii type are used to analyse the model's existence and uniqueness. We discuss the model stability using the Hyers-Ulam functional analysis. The numerical scheme for the Ebola-malaria coinfections using Lagrange interpolation is presented. The numerical trajectories show that the prevalence of Ebola-malaria coinfections ranged from low to moderate depending on memory. This means that controlling the disease requires adequate knowledge of the past history of the dynamics of both malaria and Ebola. The graphical dynamics of the detection rate indicate that a variation in the detection rate only affects the following compartments: individuals that are latently infected with the Ebola, Ebola virus afflicted people who went unnoticed, individuals who have been infected with the Ebola virus and have been diagnosed with the disease, and persons undergoing Ebola virus therapy.


Asunto(s)
Coinfección , Ebolavirus , Epidemias , Fiebre Hemorrágica Ebola , Malaria , Coinfección/epidemiología , Fiebre Hemorrágica Ebola/complicaciones , Fiebre Hemorrágica Ebola/epidemiología , Fiebre Hemorrágica Ebola/terapia , Humanos , Malaria/complicaciones , Malaria/diagnóstico , Malaria/epidemiología
9.
Comput Intell Neurosci ; 2022: 1912603, 2022.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35178075

RESUMEN

In the modern world, the security of the digital image is vital due to the frequent communication of digital products over the open network. Accelerated advancement of digital data exchange, the importance of information security in the transmission of data, and its storage has emerged. Multiple uses of the images in the security agencies and the industries and the security of the confidential image data from unauthorized access are emergent and vital. In this paper, Bose Chaudhary Hocquenghem (BCH) codes over the Galois field are used for image encryption. The BCH codes over the Galois field construct MDS (maximum distance separable) matrices and secret keys for image encryption techniques. The encrypted image is calculated, by contrast, correlation, energy, homogeneity, and entropy. Histogram analysis of the encrypted image is also assured in this paper. The proposed image encryption scheme's security analysis results are improved compared to the original AES algorithm. Further, security agencies can utilize this work for their confidential image data.


Asunto(s)
Seguridad Computacional , Procesamiento de Imagen Asistido por Computador , Algoritmos , Comunicación , Entropía , Procesamiento de Imagen Asistido por Computador/métodos
10.
Results Phys ; 33: 105177, 2022 Feb.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35070649

RESUMEN

Cost-effectiveness analysis is a mode of determining both the cost and economic health outcomes of one or more control interventions. In this work, we have formulated a non-autonomous nonlinear deterministic model to study the control of COVID-19 to unravel the cost and economic health outcomes for the autonomous nonlinear model proposed for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. We calculated the strength number and noticed the strength number is less than zero, meaning the proposed model does not capture multiple waves, hence to capture multiple wave new compartmental model may require for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. We proposed an optimal control problem based on a previously studied model and proved the existence of the proposed optimal control model. The optimality system associated with the non-autonomous epidemic model is derived using Pontryagin's maximum principle. The optimal control model captures four time-dependent control functions, thus, u 1 -practising physical or social distancing protocols; u 2 -practising personal hygiene by cleaning contaminated surfaces with alcohol-based detergents; u 3 -practising proper and safety measures by exposed, asymptomatic and symptomatic infected individuals; u 4 -fumigating schools in all levels of education, sports facilities, commercial areas and religious worship centres. We have performed numerical simulations to investigate extensive cost-effectiveness analysis for fourteen optimal control strategies. Comparing the control strategies, we noticed that; Strategy 1 (practising physical or social distancing protocols) is the most cost-saving and most effective control intervention in Saudi Arabia in the absence of vaccination. But, in terms of the infection averted, we saw that strategy 6, strategy 11, strategy 12, and strategy 14 are just as good in controlling COVID-19.

11.
Results Phys ; 34: 105193, 2022 Mar.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35070648

RESUMEN

In late 2019, a novel coronavirus, the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak was identified in Wuhan, China and later spread to every corner of the globe. Whilst the number of infection-induced deaths in Ghana, West Africa are minimal when compared with the rest of the world, the impact on the local health service is still significant. Compartmental models are a useful framework for investigating transmission of diseases in societies. To understand how the infection will spread and how to limit the outbreak. We have developed a modified SEIR compartmental model with nine compartments (CoVCom9) to describe the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Ghana. We have carried out a detailed mathematical analysis of the CoVCom9, including the derivation of the basic reproduction number, R 0 . In particular, we have shown that the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when R 0 < 1 via a candidate Lyapunov function. Using the SARS-CoV-2 reported data for confirmed-positive cases and deaths from March 13 to August 10, 2020, we have parametrised the CoVCom9 model. The results of this fit show good agreement with data. We used Latin hypercube sampling-rank correlation coefficient (LHS-PRCC) to investigate the uncertainty and sensitivity of R 0 since the results derived are significant in controlling the spread of SARS-CoV-2. We estimate that over this five month period, the basic reproduction number is given by R 0 = 3 . 110 , with the 95% confidence interval being 2 . 042 ≤ R 0 ≤ 3 . 240 , and the mean value being R 0 = 2 . 623 . Of the 32 parameters in the model, we find that just six have a significant influence on R 0 , these include the rate of testing, where an increasing testing rate contributes to the reduction of R 0 .

12.
Healthc Anal (N Y) ; 2: 100114, 2022 Nov.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37520617

RESUMEN

In this paper, we study a Caputo-Fabrizio fractional order epidemiological model for the transmission dynamism of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 pandemic and its relationship with Alzheimer's disease. Alzheimer's disease is incorporated into the model by evaluating its relevance to the quarantine strategy. We use functional techniques to demonstrate the proposed model stability under the Ulam-Hyres condition. The Adams-Bashforth method is used to determine the numerical solution for our proposed model. According to our numerical results, we notice that an increase in the quarantine parameter has minimal effect on the Alzheimer's disease compartment.

13.
Chaos Solitons Fractals ; 146: 110885, 2021 May.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33776250

RESUMEN

Optimal economic evaluation is pivotal in prioritising the implementation of non-pharmaceutical and pharmaceutical interventions in the control of diseases. Governments, decision-makers and policy-makers broadly need information about the effectiveness of a control intervention concerning its cost-benefit to evaluate whether a control intervention offers the best value for money. The outbreak of COVID-19 in December 2019, and the eventual spread to other parts of the world, have pushed governments and health authorities to take drastic socioeconomic, sociocultural and sociopolitical measures to curb the spread of the virus, SARS-CoV-2. To help policy-makers, health authorities and governments, we propose a Susceptible, Exposed, Asymptomatic, Quarantined asymptomatic, Severely infected, Hospitalized, Recovered, Recovered asymptomatic, Deceased, and Protective susceptible (individuals who observe health protocols) compartmental structure to describe the dynamics of COVID-19. We fit the model to real data from Ghana and Egypt to estimate model parameters using standard incidence rate. Projections for disease control and sensitivity analysis are presented using MATLAB. We noticed that multiple peaks (waves) of COVID-19 for Ghana and Egypt can be prevented if stringent health protocols are implemented for a long time and/or the reluctant behaviour on the use of protective equipment by individuals are minimized. The sensitivity analysis suggests that: the rate of diagnoses and testing, the rate of quarantine through doubling enhanced contact tracing, adhering to physical distancing, adhering to wearing of nose masks, sanitizing-washing hands, media education remains the most effective measures in reducing the control reproduction number R c , to less than unity in the absence of vaccines and therapeutic drugs in Ghana and Egypt. Optimal control and cost-effectiveness analysis are rigorously studied. The main finding is that having two controls (transmission reduction and case isolation) is better than having one control, but is economically expensive. In case only one control is affordable, then transmission reduction is better than case isolation. Hopefully, the results of this research should help policy-makers when dealing with multiple waves of COVID-19.

14.
Chaos Solitons Fractals ; 140: 110103, 2020 Nov.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32834629

RESUMEN

COVID-19 potentially threatens the lives and livelihood of people all over the world. The disease is presently a major health concern in Ghana and the rest of the world. Although, human to human transmission dynamics has been established, not much research is done on the dynamics of the virus in the environment and the role human play by releasing the virus into the environment. Therefore, investigating the human-environment-human by use of mathematical analysis and optimal control theory is relatively necessary. The dynamics of COVID-19 for this study is segregated into compartments as: Susceptible (S), Exposed (E), Asymptomatic (A), Symptomatic (I), Recovered (R) and the Virus in the environment/surfaces (V). The basic reproduction number R 0 without controls is computed. The application of Lyapunov's function is used to analyse the global stability of the proposed model. We fit the model to real data from Ghana in the time window 12th March 2020 to 7th May 2020, with the aid of python programming language using the least-squares method. The average basic reproduction number without controls, R 0 a , is approximately 2.68. An optimal control is formulated based on the sensitivity analysis. Numerical simulation of the model is also done to verify the analytic results. The admissible control set such as: effective testing and quarantine when boarders are opened, the usage of masks and face shields through media education, cleaning of surfaces with home-based detergents, practising proper cough etiquette and fumigating commercial areas; health centers is simulated in MATLAB. We used forward-backward sweep Runge-Kutta scheme which gave interesting results in the main text, for example, the cost-effectiveness analysis shows that, Strategy 4 (safety measures adopted by the asymptomatic and symptomatic individuals such as practicing proper coughing etiquette by maintaining a distance, covering coughs and sneezes with disposable tissues or clothing and washing of hands after coughing or sneezing) is the most cost-effective strategy among all the six control intervention strategies under consideration.

15.
Comput Math Methods Med ; 2020: 6820608, 2020.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32089730

RESUMEN

This paper presents a differential equation model which describes a possible transmission route for Q fever dynamics in cattle herds. The model seeks to ascertain epidemiological and theoretical inferences in understanding how to avert an outbreak of Q fever in dairy cattle herds (livestock). To prove the stability of the model's equilibria, we use a matrix-theoretic method and a Lyapunov function which establishes the local and global asymptotic behaviour of the model. We introduce time-dependent vaccination, environmental hygiene, and culling and then solve for optimal strategies. The optimal control strategies are necessary management practices that may increase animal health in a Coxiella burnetii-induced environment and may also reduce the transmission of the disease from livestock into the human population. The sensitivity analysis presents the relative importance of the various generic parameters in the model. We hope that the description of the results and the optimality trajectories provides some guidelines for animal owners and veterinary officers on how to effectively minimize the bacteria and control cost before/during an outbreak.


Asunto(s)
Crianza de Animales Domésticos/métodos , Industria Lechera/métodos , Fiebre Q/transmisión , Fiebre Q/veterinaria , Algoritmos , Animales , Carga Bacteriana , Bovinos , Coxiella burnetii , Brotes de Enfermedades/veterinaria , Ensayo de Inmunoadsorción Enzimática/veterinaria , Modelos Teóricos , Reproducibilidad de los Resultados , Vacunación
16.
Comput Math Methods Med ; 2018: 2657461, 2018.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29780431

RESUMEN

Vaccination and treatment are the most effective ways of controlling the transmission of most infectious diseases. While vaccination helps susceptible individuals to build either a long-term immunity or short-term immunity, treatment reduces the number of disease-induced deaths and the number of infectious individuals in a community/nation. In this paper, a nonlinear deterministic model with time-dependent controls has been proposed to describe the dynamics of bacterial meningitis in a population. The model is shown to exhibit a unique globally asymptotically stable disease-free equilibrium ℰ0, when the effective reproduction number ℛVT ≤ 1, and a globally asymptotically stable endemic equilibrium ℰ1, when ℛVT > 1; and it exhibits a transcritical bifurcation at ℛVT = 1. Carriers have been shown (by Tornado plot) to have a higher chance of spreading the infection than those with clinical symptoms who will sometimes be bound to bed during the acute phase of the infection. In order to find the best strategy for minimizing the number of carriers and ill individuals and the cost of control implementation, an optimal control problem is set up by defining a Lagrangian function L to be minimized subject to the proposed model. Numerical simulation of the optimal problem demonstrates that the best strategy to control bacterial meningitis is to combine vaccination with other interventions (such as treatment and public health education). Additionally, this research suggests that stakeholders should press hard for the production of existing/new vaccines and antibiotics and their disbursement to areas that are most affected by bacterial meningitis, especially Sub-Saharan Africa; furthermore, individuals who live in communities where the environment is relatively warm (hot/moisture) are advised to go for vaccination against bacterial meningitis.


Asunto(s)
Meningitis Bacterianas/transmisión , Modelos Teóricos , Humanos , Meningitis Bacterianas/tratamiento farmacológico , Meningitis Bacterianas/prevención & control , Vacunas Meningococicas , Dinámicas no Lineales , Vacunación
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