RESUMEN
OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study is to create a new screening for spontaneous preterm birth (sPTB) based on artificial intelligence (AI). METHODS: This study included 524 singleton pregnancies from 18th to 24th-week gestation after transvaginal ultrasound cervical length (CL) analyzes for screening sPTB < 35 weeks. AI model was created based on the stacking-based ensemble learning method (SBELM) by the neural network, gathering CL < 25 mm, multivariate unadjusted logistic regression (LR), and the best AI algorithm. Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) curve to predict sPTB < 35 weeks and area under the curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, predictive positive and negative values were performed to evaluate CL < 25 mm, LR, the best algorithms of AI and SBELM. RESULTS: The most relevant variables presented by LR were cervical funneling, index straight CL/internal angle inside the cervix (≤ 0.200), previous PTB < 37 weeks, previous curettage, no antibiotic treatment during pregnancy, and weight (≤ 58 kg), no smoking, and CL < 30.9 mm. Fixing 10% of false positive rate, CL < 25 mm and SBELM present, respectively: AUC of 0.318 and 0.808; sensitivity of 33.3% and 47,3%; specificity of 91.8 and 92.8%; positive predictive value of 23.1 and 32.7%; negative predictive value of 94.9 and 96.0%. This machine learning presented high statistical significance when compared to CL < 25 mm after T-test (p < .00001). CONCLUSION: AI applied to clinical and ultrasonographic variables could be a viable option for screening of sPTB < 35 weeks, improving the performance of short cervix, with a low false-positive rate.
Asunto(s)
Nacimiento Prematuro , Embarazo , Femenino , Recién Nacido , Humanos , Nacimiento Prematuro/diagnóstico , Nacimiento Prematuro/prevención & control , Inteligencia Artificial , Medición de Longitud Cervical/métodos , Valor Predictivo de las Pruebas , Curva ROC , Cuello del Útero/diagnóstico por imagenRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Several studies were published about cervical pessary, with controversial results. These studies demonstrated that the patient follow-up after pessary insertion is very different between the study centers and the number of pessary insertions per center was often <30 cases. This study aims to determine cervical pessary performance in singleton pregnancies with a short cervix based on a single center learning curve. METHODS: Between 2011 and 2018, 128 singleton pregnancies between 18 and 24 gestational weeks with a short cervix (<25 mm) were referred to our clinic. All cases were treated with progesterone, and when available in our supplies (due to low resources) cervical pessary was also offered. Three groups were created for statistical analysis: Group 1 (n = 33), treated with progesterone-only; Groups 2 and 3, treated with cervical pessary plus progesterone. Group 2 included the first cases (n = 30) of pessary, defined by a learning curve and cumulative sum analysis, while Group 3 included the subsequent 65 cases. The primary outcome was preterm birth (PTB) < 34 gestational weeks. RESULTS: The learning curve was performed with all cases of pessary plus progesterone, and 30 patients were obtained as the number needed for learning, in our study with two operators. The PTB rate < 34 weeks was 27.3, 20, and 4.6% in groups 1, 2, and 3, respectively. There was no significant difference between Group 1 and 2 (OR 1.1; 95% CI 0.066 - 18.45; p = .945). When comparing Groups 1 and 3 there was a significant difference in PTB rates (OR 0.08; CI95% 0.01-0.42; p = .003). Considering Kaplan-Meyer Survival analysis, we can observe that the performance of progesterone alone (Group 1) was similar to Group 2 (progesterone + first 30 cases of pessary) (p = .432), but the performance of Group 3 (progesterone + subsequent 65 cases of pessary) and Group 1 shows a statistically significant difference (p = .011). CONCLUSION: Learning curve and cumulative sum analysis determined that the application and surveillance of at least 30 patients is required to see significant improvements in the primary outcome of PTB < 34 weeks.
Asunto(s)
Pesarios , Nacimiento Prematuro , Embarazo , Femenino , Recién Nacido , Humanos , Progesterona , Cuello del Útero/diagnóstico por imagen , Nacimiento Prematuro/epidemiología , Progestinas/uso terapéutico , Administración Intravaginal , Medición de Longitud CervicalRESUMEN
OBJECTIVE: The present study aims to determine if the use of cervical pessary plus progesterone in short-cervix (≤ 25 mm) dichorionic-diamniotic (DC-DA) twin pregnancies is equivalent to the rate of preterm births (PBs) with no intervention in unselected DC-DA twin pregnancies. METHODS: A historical cohort study was performed between 2010 and 2018, including a total of 57 pregnant women with DC-DA twin pregnancies. The women admitted from 2010 to 2012 (n = 32) received no treatment, and were not selected by cervical length (Non-Treated group, NTG), whereas those admitted from 2013 to 2018 (n = 25), were routinely submitted to cervical pessary plus progesterone after the diagnosis of short cervix from the 18th to the 27th weeks of gestation (Pessary-Progesterone group, PPG). The primary outcome analyzed was the rate of PBs before 34 weeks. RESULTS: There were no statistical differences between the NTG and the PPG regarding PB < 34 weeks (18.8% versus 40.0% respectively; p = 0.07) and the mean birthweight of the smallest twin (2,037 ± 425 g versus 2,195 ± 665 g; p = 0.327). The Kaplan-Meyer Survival analysis was performed, and there were no differences between the groups before 31.5 weeks. Logistic regression showed that a previous PB (< 37 weeks) presented an odds ratio (OR) of 15.951 (95% confidence interval [95%CI]: 1.294-196.557; p = 0.031*) for PB < 34 weeks in the PPG. CONCLUSION: In DC-DA twin pregnancies with a short cervix, (which means a higher risk of PB), the treatment with cervical pessary plus progesterone could be considered equivalent in several aspects related to PB in the NTG, despite the big difference between these groups.
OBJETIVO: Este estudo tem como objetivo determinar se o uso de pessário cervical associado a progesterona em gestações de gêmeos dicoriônicos-diamnióticos (DC-DAs) com colo do útero curto (≤ 25 mm) apresenta taxa de parto prematuro (PP) equivalente à de gestações gemelares DC-DA sem nenhuma intervenção/não selecionadas. MéTODOS: Um estudo de coorte histórica foi realizado entre 2010 e 2018, incluindo um total de 57 mulheres grávidas com gestações gemelares DC-DA. As mulheres admitidas de 2010 a 2012 (n = 32) não receberam tratamento, e não foram selecionadas pelo comprimento cervical (grupo Não Tratado, GNT), enquanto as admitidas de 2013 a 2018 (n = 25) receberam pessário cervical rotineiramente associado a progesterona após o diagnóstico de colo curto entre a 18a e a 27ª semanas de gestação (grupo Pessário-Progesterona, GPP). O desfecho primário analisado foi a taxa de PP antes de 34 semanas. RESULTADOS: Não houve diferenças estatísticas entre o GNT e o GPP em relação ao PP < 34 semanas (respectivamente, 18,8% versus 40,0%; p = 0,07) e ao peso médio ao nascer do gêmeo menor (2.037 ± 425 g versus 2.195 ± 665 g; p = 0,327). A análise de Kaplan-Meyer foi realizada, e não houve diferenças entre os grupos antes de 31,5 semanas. A regressão logística demonstrou que o nascimento prematuro anterior (< 37 semanas) apresentou razão de probabilidades (odds ratio, OR) de 15,951 (intervalo de confiança de 95% [IC95%]: 1,294196,557; p = 0,031*) para o nascimento prematuro < 34 semanas no GPP. CONCLUSãO: Em gêmeos DC-DA com colo uterino curto (o que significa maior risco de nascimento prematuro), o tratamento com pessário cervical associado a progesterona pode ser considerado equivalente em diversos aspectos relacionados à prematuridade no GNT, apesar da grande diferença entre os grupos.
Asunto(s)
Cuello del Útero/diagnóstico por imagen , Pesarios , Embarazo Gemelar , Progesterona/administración & dosificación , Incompetencia del Cuello del Útero/terapia , Administración Intravaginal , Adulto , Medición de Longitud Cervical , Estudios de Cohortes , Femenino , Edad Gestacional , Humanos , Recién Nacido , Embarazo , Nacimiento Prematuro , Resultado del TratamientoRESUMEN
Abstract Objective The present study aims to determine if the use of cervical pessary plus progesterone in short-cervix (≤ 25 mm) dichorionic-diamniotic (DC-DA) twin pregnancies is equivalent to the rate of preterm births (PBs) with no intervention in unselected DC-DA twin pregnancies. Methods A historical cohort study was performed between 2010 and 2018, including a total of 57 pregnant women with DC-DA twin pregnancies. The women admitted from 2010 to 2012 (n = 32) received no treatment, and were not selected by cervical length (Non-Treated group, NTG), whereas those admitted from 2013 to 2018 (n = 25), were routinely submitted to cervical pessary plus progesterone after the diagnosis of short cervix from the 18th to the 27th weeks of gestation (Pessary-Progesterone group, PPG). The primary outcome analyzed was the rate of PBs before 34 weeks. Results There were no statistical differences between the NTG and the PPG regarding PB < 34 weeks (18.8%; versus 40.0%; respectively; p = 0.07) and the mean birthweight of the smallest twin (2,037 ± 425 g versus 2,195 ± 665 g; p = 0.327). The Kaplan-Meyer Survival analysis was performed, and there were no differences between the groups before 31.5 weeks. Logistic regression showed that a previous PB (< 37 weeks) presented an odds ratio (OR) of 15.951 (95%; confidence interval [95%;CI]: 1.294-196.557; p = 0.031*) for PB < 34 weeks in the PPG. Conclusion In DC-DA twin pregnancies with a short cervix, (which means a higher risk of PB), the treatment with cervical pessary plus progesterone could be considered equivalent in several aspects related to PB in the NTG, despite the big difference between these groups.
Resumo Objetivo Este estudo tem como objetivo determinar se o uso de pessário cervical associado a progesterona em gestações de gêmeos dicoriônicos-diamnióticos (DC-DAs) com colo do útero curto (≤ 25 mm) apresenta taxa de parto prematuro (PP) equivalente à de gestações gemelares DC-DA sem nenhuma intervenção/não selecionadas. Métodos Um estudo de coorte histórica foi realizado entre 2010 e 2018, incluindo um total de 57 mulheres grávidas com gestações gemelares DC-DA. As mulheres admitidas de 2010 a 2012 (n = 32) não receberam tratamento, e não foram selecionadas pelo comprimento cervical (grupo Não Tratado, GNT), enquanto as admitidas de 2013 a 2018 (n = 25) receberam pessário cervical rotineiramente associado a progesterona após o diagnóstico de colo curto entre a 18a e a 27ª semanas de gestação (grupo Pessário-Progesterona, GPP). O desfecho primário analisado foi a taxa de PP antes de 34 semanas. Resultados Não houve diferenças estatísticas entre o GNT e o GPP em relação ao PP < 34 semanas (respectivamente, 18,8%; versus 40,0%;; p = 0,07) e ao peso médio ao nascer do gêmeo menor (2.037 ± 425 g versus 2.195 ± 665 g; p = 0,327). A análise de Kaplan-Meyer foi realizada, e não houve diferenças entre os grupos antes de 31,5 semanas. A regressão logística demonstrou que o nascimento prematuro anterior (< 37 semanas) apresentou razão de probabilidades (odds ratio, OR) de 15,951 (intervalo de confiança de 95%; [IC95%;]: 1,294-196,557; p = 0,031*) para o nascimento prematuro < 34 semanas no GPP. Conclusão Em gêmeos DC-DA com colo uterino curto (o que significa maior risco de nascimento prematuro), o tratamento com pessário cervical associado a progesterona pode ser considerado equivalente em diversos aspectos relacionados à prematuridade no GNT, apesar da grande diferença entre os grupos.