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Naloxegol is a peripherally acting µ-opioid receptor antagonist that was developed for the treatment of opioid-induced constipation. Modeling and simulation of naloxegol efficacy and tolerability informed selection of doses for phase III studies and provided comprehensive dosage recommendations for the naloxegol US package insert.

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This article represents the first in a series of tutorials on model evaluation in nonlinear mixed effect models (NLMEMs), from the International Society of Pharmacometrics (ISoP) Model Evaluation Group. Numerous tools are available for evaluation of NLMEM, with a particular emphasis on visual assessment. This first basic tutorial focuses on presenting graphical evaluation tools of NLMEM for continuous data. It illustrates graphs for correct or misspecified models, discusses their pros and cons, and recalls the definition of metrics used.

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Predictive performance of physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) and population pharmacokinetic (PopPK) models of drugs predominantly eliminated through kidney in the pediatric population was evaluated. After optimization using adult clinical data, the verified PBPK models can predict 33 of 34 drug clearance within twofold of the observed values in children 1 month and older. More specifically, 10 of 11 of predicted clearance values were within 1.5-fold of those observed in children between 1 month and 2 years old. The PopPK approach also predicted 19 of 21 drug clearance within twofold of the observed values in children. In summary, our analysis demonstrated both PBPK and PopPK adult models, after verification with additional adult pharmacokinetic (PK) studies and incorporation of known ontogeny of renal filtration, could be applied for dosing regimen recommendation in children 1 month and older for renally eliminated drugs in a first-in-pediatric study.

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Naloxegol is a polyethylene glycol derivative of naloxone approved in the US as a once-daily oral treatment for opioid-induced constipation (OIC) in adults with chronic noncancer pain. Population exposure-response models were constructed based on data from two phase III studies comprising 1,331 adults with noncancer pain and OIC. In order to characterize the protocol-defined naloxegol responder rate, the number of daily spontaneous bowel movements (SBMs) was characterized by a longitudinal ordinal nonlinear mixed-effects logistic regression dose-response model, and the incidence of diary entry discontinuation was described by a time-to-event model. The mean number of SBMs per week increased with increasing naloxegol dose. The predicted placebo-adjusted responder rates (90% confidence interval) were 10.4% (4.6-13.4%) and 11.1% (4.8-14.4%) for naloxegol 12.5 and 25 mg/day, respectively. Model-predicted response to naloxegol was influenced by the baseline SBM frequency and characteristics of the opioid treatment.

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Naloxegol, a peripherally acting µ-opioid receptor antagonist for the treatment of opioid-induced constipation, is a substrate for cytochrome P450 (CYP) 3A4/3A5 and the P-glycoprotein (P-gp) transporter. By integrating in silico, preclinical, and clinical pharmacokinetic (PK) findings, minimal and full physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models were developed to predict the drug-drug interaction (DDI) potential for naloxegol. The models reasonably predicted the observed changes in naloxegol exposure with ketoconazole (increase of 13.1-fold predicted vs. 12.9-fold observed), diltiazem (increase of 2.8-fold predicted vs. 3.4-fold observed), rifampin (reduction of 76% predicted vs. 89% observed), and quinidine (increase of 1.2-fold predicted vs. 1.4-fold observed). The moderate CYP3A4 inducer efavirenz was predicted to reduce naloxegol exposure by ∼50%, whereas weak CYP3A inhibitors were predicted to minimally affect exposure. In summary, the PBPK models reasonably estimated interactions with various CYP3A modulators and can be used to guide dosing in clinical practice when naloxegol is coadministered with such agents.

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WHAT IS KNOWN AND OBJECTIVE: AZD7325 is a selective gamma-amino-butyric acid (GABAA )α2, 3 receptor modulator. The aims of this analysis were to develop population pharmacokinetic (PPK) models of AZD7325 and midazolam and to assess the induction effect of AZD7325 on CYP3A4 with midazolam as a substrate. METHODS: Drug-drug interaction data of AZD7325 and midazolam from 24 healthy subjects were available for model development. PPK models were developed in a sequential manner using NONMEM. Both AZD7325 and midazolam pharmacokinetics were described by two-compartment models, and a transit compartment absorption model and a first-order absorption model were applied for the absorption of AZD7325 and midazolam, respectively. The induction of CYP3A by AZD7325 was described by a transit enzyme model, where the elimination of midazolam was proportionally linked to the enzyme amount. Simulations were performed to predict dosing regimens to account for the induction of CYP3A4. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: The population estimates for AZD7325 clearance, intercompartmental clearance, central and peripheral volume were 36, 29·2 L/h, 169 and 392 L, respectively, with interindividual variability (IIV) of 35% and 24% for clearance and central volume. Midazolam clearance, intercompartmental clearance, central and peripheral volume were estimated to be 62·7, 34·7 L/h, 133 and 146 L, respectively, with 43% IIV for clearance. The estimated mean transit time for induction of the CYP3A4 enzyme was 197 h, with 57% IIV. WHAT IS NEW AND CONCLUSION: The PPK models developed adequately described the clinical observation of AZD7325-mediated CYP3A4 enzyme induction with midazolam as a probe. The model could provide basis for the rational dosing of AZD7325 in clinical practice.

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Pre-clinical studies have demonstrated that bone marrow ablation has a profound effect in decreasing erythropoietin (EPO) elimination. The study's objective was to determine in humans if EPO pharmacokinetics (PKs) are perturbed following bone marrow ablation. EPO PK studies were performed in eight subjects, aged 4 to 61 years, undergoing fully myeloablative hematopoietic stem cell transplantation. Serial PK studies using intravenous injection of recombinant human EPO (92+/-2.0 U/kg) (mean+/-SEM) were carried out during four periods of altered marrow integrity: baseline pre-ablation, post-ablation pre-transplant, early post-transplant pre-engraftment, and late post-transplant full engraftment. Compared with baseline, post-ablation pre-transplant and early post-transplant EPO PKs demonstrated declines in clearance increases in terminal elimination half-life of 36 and 95%, respectively. Clearance and half-life returned to baseline following full engraftment. The association of EPO elimination with decreased bone marrow activity in patients undergoing transplantation conclusively establishes the bone marrow as a key determinant of EPO elimination in humans.

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AIM: The objective of this study is to propose a non-parametric pharmacokinetic prediction model that addresses the individualized risk of developing type-2 diabetes in subjects with family history of type-2 diabetes. METHOD: All selected 191 healthy subjects had both parents as type-2 diabetic. Glucose was administered intravenously (0.5 g/kg body weight) and 13 blood samples taken at specified times were analyzed for plasma insulin and glucose concentrations. All subjects were followed for an average of 13-14 years for diabetic or normal (non-diabetic) outcome. RESULTS: The new logistic regression model predicts the development of diabetes based on body mass index and only one blood sample at 90 min analyzed for insulin concentration. Our model correctly identified 4.5 times more subjects (54% versus 11.6%) predicted to develop diabetes and more than twice the subjects (99% versus 46.4%) predicted not to develop diabetes compared to current non-pharmacokinetic probability estimates for development of type-2 diabetes. CONCLUSION: Our model can be useful for individualized prediction of development of type-2 diabetes in subjects with family history of type-2 diabetes. This improved prediction may be an important mediating factor for better perception of risk and may result in an improved intervention.

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OBJECTIVE: To estimate the rate of erythropoietin (EPO) production under physiological, conditions and to examine the regulatory mechanism of EPO production in response to acute phlebotomy-induced anemia. METHODS: Six sheep each underwent two phlebotomies in which the hemoglobin (Hb) was reduced to 3-4 g/dl over 4-5 h. The EPO plasma level, reticulocytes, Hb and EPO clearance were followed by frequent blood sampling. The EPO production rate was determined by a semi-parametric method based on a disposition decomposition analysis that accounts for the nonlinear disposition kinetics of EPO and corrects for time-dependent changes in the clearance. RESULTS: The controlled drop in hemoglobin resulted in an abrupt increase in the plasma EPO concentration (peak level 812+/-40 mU/ml, mean+/-CV%) that was followed by a rapid drop 2-4 days after the phlebotomy at a time when the sheep were still anemic (Hb=4.3+/-16 g/dl). The EPO production rate at baseline was 43+/-52 U/day/kg and the amounts of EPO produced over an 8 day period resulting from the first and second phlebotomy were 2927+/-40 U/kg and 3012+/-31 U/kg, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The rapid reduction in the EPO plasma level observed 2-4 days following the phlebotomy cannot be explained solely by the increase in EPO clearance but also by a reduction in EPO production.

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OBJECTIVES: The objective was to study in vivo erythropoietin (Epo) progenitor cell surface receptors (EpoR) in the bone marrow (BM) after phlebotomy and bone marrow ablation. METHODS: Serial tracer interaction method experiments were conducted in adult sheep at baseline and after phlebotomy (PH) and ablation (AB). PH was done 10 days after phlebotomy (to 3-4 g/dl Hb), and the AB was done 8 days after a 3-day oral treatment with bulsulfan (11 mg/kg/day). RESULTS: Bone marrow ablation changed the elimination from non-linear to linear, consistent with an abolition of the non-linear elimination via BM EpoRs. The phlebotomy increased the linear clearance of the ablated elimination pathway (from 63.6+/-12 to 126+/-64 ml/h/kg), consistent with an up-regulation of the erythroid progenitor BM-based EpoR pool, but did not change the clearance of the non-ablated elimination pathway (p>0.05). The EpoR pool size remaining after BM ablation was 7.4+/-2.7% of the pre-ablation pool. CONCLUSIONS: Erythropoietin elimination via EpoR in the bone marrow was non-linear and increased following phlebotomy-induced anemia. This is consistent with an up-regulation of the erythropoietic EpoR pool in BM. Assuming that the elimination of Epo after BM ablation was via non-hematopoietic EpoR, then this post-ablation EpoR population was not significantly up-regulated by the phlebotomy.

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The regulatory mechanism responsible for a paradoxal, rapid drop in the erythropoietin (EPO) plasma level seen 2 to 4 days after acute, phlebotomy-induced anemia was investigated in seven adult sheep. To introduce acute anemia, each sheep underwent two phlebotomies where the hemoglobin (Hb) was reduced to 3 or 4 g/dl over 4 to 5 h. The phlebotomies were spaced 4 to 6 weeks apart in three animals, and 8 days apart in four other animals. EPO plasma levels, reticulocyte count, Hb, and p50 for oxygen-Hb dissociation were determined from frequent blood samplings throughout the study period. EPO's disposition pharmacokinetic (PK) and plasma clearance were determined from i.v. bolus injections of tracer amounts of a recombinant human EPO tracer. The controlled drop in Hb resulted in a rapid increase in plasma EPO to 836 +/- 52 mU/ml (mean +/- coefficient of variation percentage) that was followed by a paradoxical rapid drop 2 to 4 days after the phlebotomy while the animals were still very anemic (Hb = 4.3 +/- 15 g/dl). The rapid drop in plasma EPO level could not be explained by the up-regulated clearance (clearance increased by a factor of less than 2.5) or by physiological adaptation (no change in p50, p > 0.05, second phlebotomy to Hb = 3g/dl inadequately stimulated the EPO production). The PK/pharmacodynamic (PD) analysis supports the hypothesis of a limited sustained high EPO production rate in acute anemia, which indicates an apparent deficiency in the regulation of EPO production in acute anemia. The hypothesis was supported by a PK/PD feedback inhibition model that showed good agreement with the data (r = 0.973 +/- 1.57).

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Strong evidence indicates that erythropoietin (Epo) is eliminated via Epo receptors (EpoR). Epo receptors may be classified as erythropoietic receptors that are largely located on erythroid progenitor cells in the bone marrow (BM) and nonerythropoietic receptors present in most tissues. Epo's elimination kinetics was studied using a very sensitive tracer interaction method (TIM) before and after chemical ablation of BM as an indirect way of evaluating the EpoR through an assortment of pharmacokinetic parameters (VM, KM, K, and CL) used in differentiating the EpoR population in newborn and adult sheep. TIM identified a parallel nonlinear Michaelis-Menten (VM and KM), and linear (K) elimination pathway and found the latter pathway to be significantly (p < 0.01) more dominant in lamb: K/(VM/KM + K) = 0.309 (25.3) versus 0.0895 (18.4) mean (CV%) lambs versus adult sheep. The significantly (p < 0.01) larger total clearance found for lambs indicates a larger nonhematopoietic tissue clearance of Epo (CL = 118 (10.9) ml/h/kg versus 67.8 (19.3) lamb versus adult sheep). The VM/KM ratio for the nonlinear pathway was not found to be significantly different (p > 0.05) between newborn and adults with values of 1.10 (15.8) and 1.30 (3.81) h-1, respectively. We proposed the hypothesis that the linear pathway is via nonhematopoietic EpoR. Assuming that Epo's elimination largely depends not only on erythropoietic EpoR but also on nonhematopoietic EpoR, this work shows a significant difference in the relative proportions of the two EpoR populations in lamb and adult sheep. The larger dominance of the nonhematopoietic EpoR in lamb supports the hypothesis that these receptors are more needed in early life, e.g., providing neuroprotection from perinatal hypoxemic-ischemic episodes.

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PURPOSE: To determine by pharmacodynamic (PD) analysis physiologically relevant parameters of the cellular kinetics of erythropoiesis in acute anemia. METHODS: The PD relationships among erythropoietin (EPO), reticulocyte, and RBC (Hb) responses were investigated in young adult sheep in acute anemia induced twice by two controlled phlebotomies separated by a 4-week recovery period. RESULTS: The phlebotomies resulted in rapid increases in plasma EPO, with maximal levels occurring at 3 to 8 days, followed by a reticulocyte response with a delay of 0.5 to 1.5 days. The Hb returned to prephlebotomy base line at the end of the 4-week recovery period. The EPO, reticulocyte count, and Hb responses were well described by a PK/PD model (r = 0.975) with the following cellular kinetics parameters: the lag time between EPO activation of erythroid progenitor cells and reticulocyte formation; the reticulocyte-to-RBC maturation time; the reticulocyte and Hb formation efficacy coefficients, quantifying EPO's efficacy in stimulating the formation of reticulocytes and Hb, respectively; the C50 PK/PD transduction parameter defined as the EPO level resulting in half the maximum rate of erythropoiesis. CONCLUSION: Physiologically relevant cellular kinetics parameters can be obtained by an endogenous PK/PD analysis of phlebotomy data and are useful for elucidating the pathophysiologic etiology of various anemias.

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