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The intricate interaction of natural and anthropogenic factors drives changes in land and water in response to societal demands and climate change. However, there has been insufficient information on the feedback effects in dryland hotspots altered by land change dynamics. This research compared two transboundary inland lakes, the Lake Chad basin (LCB) in Africa and the Aral Sea basin (ASB) in Central Asia, using remote sensing and geographic information system techniques to analyze and quantify present and future land cover dynamics, resilience, and their feedback effects. The study integrated Cellular Automata, Markov Chain, and Multilayer Perceptron models to predict LULC changes up to 2030. Descriptive statistics, ordinary least squares regression, hotspot Gi-Bin, trend analysis, and advanced geostatistical methods were utilized to identify relationships, patterns, magnitudes, and directions of observed changes in the feedback effects. From 2000 to 2030, the analysis unveils intriguing trends, including an increase in cropland from 48% to 51% and a decrease in shrubland from 18% to 15% in the LCB. The grassland increased from 21% to 22%, and the settlement expanded from 0.10 to 0.60% in the ASB. Water bodies remained stable at 1.60 % in LCB, while in ASB, it declined from 3% to 2%. These changes were significantly influenced by population, elevation, and temperature in both basins, with irrigation also playing a significant role in the ASB and slope in LCB. The study further revealed discernible shifts in normalized difference vegetation index, temperature, and precipitation linked to specific land cover conversions, suggesting alterations in surface properties and vegetation health. This study underscores the complex interplay between land cover dynamics, resilience, climate variability, and feedback mechanisms in LCB and ASB.

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Beside age, underlying comorbidities and availability of sanitation facilities, individual health beliefs and behaviour are critical in combating the sustained prevalence of Covid-19. Behaviour has, however, been shown to be consistent but could be context- dependent based on the individual's beliefs. To investigate whether or not individuals' protective behaviour against coronavirus is associated with their behaviour in a previous health context. Facemask usage and engagement in risky sexual behaviour (RSB) were employed as corollaries of Covid-19 protective behaviour and a previous health context respectively. Data on them and other sociodemographic correlates of health behaviour were collected on 522 Nigerians via a web-based survey. The data were analyzed using frequency, Chi Square and Binary Logistics Regression. About 31% of the population wore facemasks in public, 48.1% believed Covid existed and was severe, and 31.6% had engaged in RSB. Individuals who engaged in RSB had lower odds of wearing facemasks in public in both the general population and across the rural-urban divide. The relationship was, however, only statistically significant (OR:0.642, p<0.05) in the adjusted regression model. Other significant determinants of facemask use were gender, place of residence, employment status and beliefs about Covid. The similarity of individual beliefs and behaviours in different health contexts provides an opportunity to model behaviour change communication policies for preventing and combating the spread of coronavirus and other infectious diseases.

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Household habitat conditions matter for diseases transmission and control, especially in the case of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19). These conditions include availability and adequacy of sanitation facilities, and number of persons per room. Despite this, little attention is being paid to these conditions as a pathway to understanding the transmission and prevention of COVID-19, especially in Africa, where household habitat conditions are largely suboptimal. This study assesses household sanitation and isolation capacities to understand the COVID-19 transmission risk at household level across Africa. We conducted a secondary analysis of the Demographic and Health Surveys of 16 African countries implemented between 2015 and 2018 to understand the status of households for prevention of COVID-19 transmission in home. We assessed handwashing capacity and self-isolation capacity using multiple parameters, and identified households with elderly persons, who are most at risk of the disease. We fitted two-level random intercept logit models to explore independent relationships among the three indicators, while controlling for the selected explanatory variables. Handwashing capacity was highest in Tanzania (48.2%), and lowest in Chad (4.2%), varying by household location (urban or rural), as well as household wealth. Isolation capacity was highest in South Africa (77.4%), and lowest in Ethiopia (30.9%). Senegal had the largest proportion of households with an elderly person (42.1%), while Angola (16.4%) had the lowest. There were strong, independent relationships between handwashing and isolation capacities in a majority of countries. Also, strong associations were found between isolation capacity and presence of older persons in households. Household capacity for COVID-19 prevention varied significantly across countries, with those having elderly household members not necessarily having the best handwashing or isolation capacity. In view of the age risk factors of COVID-19 transmission, and its dependence on handwashing and isolation capacities of households, each country needs to use the extant information on its risk status to shape communication and intervention strategies that will help limit the impact of the disease in its population across Africa. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s41118-021-00130-w.

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BACKGROUND: The socioeconomic conditions of different environments manifest in varying experiences of illnesses. Even as migrants do transit across these different environments for various reasons, including settlement, they are bound to have peculiar experiences of diseases, which could be traced to lifestyle, gender, adaptation, and reactions to specific social, economic, psychological and climatic conditions. Paying attention to such unique scenarios, our study examines the prevalence and contextual correlates of non-communicable diseases among inter-provincial migrants and non-migrants in South Africa. METHODS: Data was from the National Income Dynamics Study (NIDS), waves 5 of 2017, which comprised of 28,055 respondents aged 15-64 years made up of 22,849 inter-provincial non-migrants and 5206 inter-provincial migrants. A composite dependent/outcome variable of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) was generated for the study and data analysis involved descriptive statistics, chi Square analysis and multilevel logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: More migrants (19.81%) than non-migrants (16.69%) reported prevalence of NCDs. With the exception of household size for migrants and smoking for non-migrants, the prevalence of NCDs showed significant differences in all the community, behavioral, and individual variables. The factors in the full model, which significantly increased odds of NCDs among the migrants and the non-migrants, were older populations, the non-Blacks, and those with higher education levels. On the one hand, being married, having a household with 4-6 persons, and being residents of urban areas significantly increased odds of NCDs among the migrant population. While on the other, living in coastal provinces, being a female, and belonging to the category of those who earn more than 10,000 Rands were significantly associated with increased odds of NCDs among the non-migrants. CONCLUSIONS: These findings, therefore, among other things underscore the need for increased education and awareness campaigns, especially among the older populations on the preventive and mitigative strategies for NCDs. In addition, changes in lifestyles with regard to smoking and physical exercises should be more emphasized in specific contextual situations for the migrant and non-migrant populations, as highlighted by the results of this study.

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INTRODUCTION: Rapid urbanization increases competition for scarce urban resources and underlines the need for policies that promote equitable access to resources. This study examined equity and social inclusion of urban development policies in Nigeria through the lenses of access to health and food/nutrition resources. METHOD: Desk review of 22 policy documents, strategies, and plans within the ambit of urban development was done. Documents were sourced from organizational websites and offices. Data were extracted by six independent reviewers using a uniform template designed to capture considerations of access to healthcare and food/nutrition resources within urban development policies/plans/strategies in Nigeria. Emerging themes on equity and social inclusion in access to health and food/nutirition resources were identified and analysed. RESULTS: Access to health and food/nutrition resources were explicit in eight (8) and twelve (12) policies/plans, respectively. Themes that reflect potential policy contributions to social inclusion and equitable access to health resources were: Provision of functional and improved health infrastructure; Primary Health Care strengthening for quality health service delivery; Provision of safety nets and social health insurance; Community participation and integration; and Public education and enlightenment. With respect to nutrition resources, emergent themes were: Provision of accessible and affordable land to farmers; Upscaling local food production, diversification and processing; Provision of safety nets; Private-sector participation; and Special considerations for vulnerable groups. CONCLUSION: There is sub-optimal consideration of access to health and nutrition resources in urban development policies in Nigeria. Equity and social inclusivity in access to health and nutrition resources should be underscored in future policies.

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This study examined the influence of place of residence on sex preference as a predictor of marital dissolution in Nigeria. It also appraised the mediation of socio-demographic factors on the relationship between sex preference and marital dissolution. Data were sourced from the 2018 demographic and health survey of Nigeria. Analyses involved the use of descriptive statistics, Pearson chi-square test and binary logistic regression models. Generally, marital dissolution significantly occurred more in rural than in urban areas. While more respondents had no child sex preference, preference for boys was significantly more among the urban women compared to the rural women. Irrespective of place of residence, sex preference was not a significant predictor of marital dissolution in Nigeria as the unadjusted models of marital dissolution and sex preference indicated that preference for more boys significantly decreased the odds of marital dissolution in the rural (OR=0.84; p=0.05), urban (OR=0.67; p=0.001), and total population (OR=0.77; p=0.001). In addition, preference for more girls significantly decreased the likelihood of marital dissolution in the rural (OR=0.82; p=0.002) and total populations (OR=0.84; p=0.05). Moreover, in the full adjusted model of the total population, preference for more males (OR=0.57; p=0.002) was also significantly associated with decreased odds of marital dissolution. Conversely, other factors that significantly increased the odds of marital dissolution included educational attainment, intimate partner violence, religion, being employed, polygamous unions, and region of residence. Women should achieve higher levels of education and be engaged in income earning occupations as mitigation measures against marital dissolution. Anti-dissolution campaigns should be initiated, especially in rural areas with high levels of intimate partner violence and in regions with relatively high incidences of marital dissolution/p-/p-1.

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While studies have explored how health sector corruption, weak healthcare system, large-scale immune compromised population, misinformation and prevalence of highly congested slums contribute to the spread of COVID-19 in Nigeria, they have glossed over the impact of political distrust on the spread of the virus. This study explores the impact of political distrust on the spread of COVID-19 pandemic in Nigeria. The study utilised qualitative dominant mixed methods approach comprising telephone interviews and a survey of 120 educated Nigerians purposively selected from four COVID-19 most affected states including Lagos, Oyo, Kano and Rivers as well as the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja. The study also relied on secondary data on the spread of COVID-19 in Nigeria sourced from Nigeria Centre for Diseases Control from 27 February to 31st August 2020. The study found that political corruption motivates large-scale political distrust. This undermines public compliance to government protocols, limits the outcomes of government responses to COVID-19 and facilitates the spread of the virus in Nigeria. The paper concludes that improving government accountability in the public sector management is relevant for building public trust, promoting citizens' compliance to COVID-19 safety measure and mitigating the spread of the pandemic in Nigeria and beyond.

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BACKGROUND: This study examined the trends, determinants and health risks of adolescent fatherhood in three selected African countries where adolescent-girl pregnancy/motherhood are decried but with permissive male sexual latitude. METHODS: Adolescent male data were extracted from the malerecode datasets of Demographic Health Survey (2000-2014) for Nigeria, Ethiopia and Zambia. The surveys were grouped into 3-Waves: (2000-2004); (2005-2008) and (2011-2014). The study employed descriptive and binary logistics that tested the log-odds of adolescent fatherhood with respect to selected sexual behaviour indices, and individual and shared demographic variables. RESULTS: The results revealed that the number of lifetime-sexual-partners among the boys is ≥2. The likelihood of adolescent fatherhood is positively associated with increasing age at first cohabitation and multiple sexual partnerships (≥2) having OR=1.673 and OR=1.769 in 2005/2008 and 2011/2014 respectively. Adolescents who had attained tertiary education, and engaged in professional and skilled jobs were 0.313, 0.213 and 0.403 times (respectively) less likely to have ever-fathered a child. The positive association between rural place of residence and adolescent fatherhood in the past shifted to urban residents in 2011/2014. CONCLUSION: The study concludes that early sexual activities and cohabitation are common among male adolescents among the countries of study. The authors recommend discouragement of boy-girl cohabitation, increasing access to higher education and job opportunities in order to stem boy-fatherhood incidence in the study locations and, by extension, other countries in sub-Saharan Africa.

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BACKGROUND: Nigeria has the highest population in sub-Saharan Africa with high birth and growth rates. There is therefore need for family planning to regulate and stabilize this population. This study examined the relationship between access to mass media messages on family planning and use of family planning in Nigeria. It also investigated the impacts of spatio-demographic variables on the relationship between access to mass media messages and use of family planning. METHODS: Data from the 2013 demographic and health survey of Nigeria which was conducted in all the 36 states of Nigeria, and Abuja were used for the study. The sample was weighted to ensure representativeness. Univariate, bivariate and binary logistic regressions were conducted. The relationship between each of the access to mass media messages, and the family planning variables were determined with Pearson correlation analysis. RESULTS: The correlation results showed significant but weak direct relationships between the access to mass media messages and use of family planning at p < 0.0001 with access to television messages (r = 0.239) being associated with highest use of family planning. Some of the results of the adjusted regression analysis showed that access to television messages (OR = 1.2.225; p < 0.0001), and radio messages (OR = 1.945; p < 0.0001) increase the likelihood of the use of family planning. The adjusted regression model also indicated increased likelihood in the use of family planning by respondents with secondary education (OR = 2.709; p < 0.0001), the married (OR = 1.274; p < 0.001), and respondents within the highest wealth quintiles (OR = 3.442; p < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: There exist significant variations within spatio-demographic groups with regards to having access to mass media messages on family planning, and on the use of family planning. The results showed that access to mass media messages increases the likelihood of the use of family planning. Also people with higher socioeconomic status and those from the Southern part of the country make more use of family planning. There is need to improve the socioeconomic status of the populations. Also, the quality and regularity of mass media messages should be improved, while other communication avenues such as traditional institutions, blogs, and seminars for youths should be used to make family planning messages more acceptable.

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